Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I don't even know what happened there, so I'm not even gonna try ahaha that was just strange. But I didn't like howntue western ridge devolved toward the end.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
well i know we dont live and die by a model run or try not too but if the other models do that i think its safe to say it aint happening cuz thats a huge change.rb924119 wrote:I don't even know what happened there, so I'm not even gonna try ahaha that was just strange. But I didn't like howntue western ridge devolved toward the end.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Nam was like. Nope see ya
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
That was kinda funny but this puts a monkey wrench in the monkeys monkey wrench. Unwinding that highly unlikely.Vinnydula wrote:Nam was like. Nope see ya
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Through about 72 that run was amazingly better. Then if lost its marbles aha could just be the NAM being the NAM near the end of its range, ornit could be real. I can't say for certain.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
If you can't explain it I dunno what to say, im looking for any comments online nothing yet.rb924119 wrote:Through about 72 that run was amazingly better. Then if lost its marbles aha could just be the NAM being the NAM near the end of its range, ornit could be real. I can't say for certain.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I mean. It’s tge NAM. In the literal worst 3-6 hours or so of its range. No?
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
It's towards the end of the Nam run and we still have time. I don't think models are going to get a handle on things until tomorrow's 00z runs at the earliest. There are just too many moving parts to this forecast.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
fair to say prolly true.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
It's towards the end of the Nam run and we still have time. I don't think models are going to get a handle on things until tomorrow's 00z runs at the earliest. There are just too many moving parts to this forecast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Just saw the RGEM and it's probably a Godzilla along and east of I-95. THATS YUGEEEEEE
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I’m still not worried.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
It's the NAM at the end of its run, chillax folks, plenty of time...
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
im not worried im just try wrap my head around how the nam came up with that.Dunnzoo wrote:It's the NAM at the end of its run, chillax folks, plenty of time...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
This is how lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
sroc4 wrote:I’m still not worried.
Me either
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Ridge out west looks slightly better so far on GFS
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
oh us peons on tropicaltidbits only see out to 48 hrs lolrb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
This is how lmao
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Looks like a little more interaction again through hr 60
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Way west of 18z so far, but we'll see.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Actually this doesn't show more interaction, won't do it this run
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Stronger, but basically the same spot as 18z
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
That didn't last long aha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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