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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by Vinnydula Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:58 pm

Nam was like. Nope see ya
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:00 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:Nam was like. Nope see ya
That was kinda funny but this puts a monkey wrench in the monkeys monkey wrench. Unwinding that highly unlikely.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:02 pm

Through about 72 that run was amazingly better. Then if lost its marbles aha could just be the NAM being the NAM near the end of its range, ornit could be real. I can't say for certain.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:06 pm

up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Through about 72 that run was amazingly better. Then if lost its marbles aha could just be the NAM being the NAM near the end of its range, ornit could be real. I can't say for certain.
If you can't explain it I dunno what to say, im looking for any comments online nothing yet.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?

I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:20 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?

I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.
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Post by MattyICE Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:23 pm

I mean. It’s tge NAM. In the literal worst 3-6 hours or so of its range. No?

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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?

I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.

It's towards the end of the Nam run and we still have time. I don't think models are going to get a handle on things until tomorrow's 00z runs at the earliest. There are just too many moving parts to this forecast.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:33 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:up to hour 78 nam was west of 18z well west, then it pulled that stunt, can anyone explain?

I think that southern stream energy never really phased with the main trough and then became cut off and was then kicked out east. We can't have that southern stream get cutoff.
no that def is not good. especially within 84 hrs.

It's towards the end of the Nam run and we still have time. I don't think models are going to get a handle on things until tomorrow's 00z runs at the earliest. There are just too many moving parts to this forecast.
fair to say prolly true.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:38 pm

Just saw the RGEM and it's probably a Godzilla along and east of I-95. THATS YUGEEEEEE

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:38 pm

I’m still not worried.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:39 pm

I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:41 pm

It's the NAM at the end of its run, chillax folks, plenty of time...

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:42 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:It's the NAM at the end of its run, chillax folks, plenty of time...
im not worried im just try wrap my head around how the nam came up with that.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 5 Img_1413

This is how lmao

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:45 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I’m still not worried.

Me either Wink

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:45 pm

Ridge out west looks slightly better so far on GFS

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:46 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:I said it earlier. Expect trends inside 48hrs
but a waco run like that? rb the rgem is only like 48 hrs isnt it howcan you tell it would be a godzilla?

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 5 Img_1413

This is how lmao
oh us peons on tropicaltidbits only see out to 48 hrs lol
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:47 pm

Looks like a little more interaction again through hr 60

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:51 pm

Way west of 18z so far, but we'll see.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:51 pm

Actually this doesn't show more interaction, won't do it this run

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:53 pm

Stronger, but basically the same spot as 18z

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:53 pm

That didn't last long aha

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