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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall
Until EURO comes aboard, I'm cautiously optimistic.

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:50 am

The precip on the UKIE is kind of similar to CMC, so this could end up still being a nice hit

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 12 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:51 am

Read this on twitter and I actually think they're right. We don't want phasing with the northern short wave energy. Since the southern energy is so potent, it can turn the trough negative on its own once H5 closes off. The northern energy would act as a kicker if it tries to phase into the southern lobe. So, need to see more spacing between the northern and southern branches. That will allow the precip shield to build west even if the low is off the coast.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:58 am

UKMET continues its Eastward pull. Remains the Eastern outlier actually. That model always worries me when it's not on board.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:01 pm

Ukie has some precip for NYC south

CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.

The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:03 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:UKMET continues its Eastward pull. Remains the Eastern outlier actually. That model always worries me when it's not on board.
The reason its east of the other models is it still has the double barrel low setup. The other models thus far today has trended away from it to a more consolidated look.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:05 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?

I live on the coast and legitimately have ZERO concern about any mixing issues.  It’s freaking Siberia outside.

Love ya but you should know better, today has no bearing on Thursday temps.

Not going to happen but if this somehow ran up and over NYC we would all change to mixed precip me included, despite it being below zero in many parts this morning, and eastern NE and eastern LI it would rain.

I know CP BUT there has not been a single solution from any model bringing this thing close enough to warrant concern for mixing AND when a storm bombs out like this one will offshore it dramatically cools the column.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:06 pm

Snow88 wrote:Ukie has some precip for NYC south

CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.

The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.

Steve DeMart just said something similar about how the setup somewhat resembles the Boxing Day Bz setup and how models were unable to sort out their convection chasing until the 11th hour.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:07 pm

Snow88 wrote:Ukie has some precip for NYC south

CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.

The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
I agree 100%
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:08 pm

I just read the Mt. Holly discussion and they are rather bullish, as is Red Sox Suck. Uptown is very conservative saying a low risk for 6”+

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:10 pm

This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 12 04bed010
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:11 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 12 04bed010
Um no.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:11 pm

I'm going to say this: The fact that we are now seeing a trend toward ONE low, is significant in and of itself.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall

You trust these enough without the major globals on board buddy, or are they already on board enough?

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:12 pm

12z NAVGEM is west

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 12 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:14 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 12 04bed010
Um no.

lol!

Well alright then.
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:15 pm

MT. Holly HWO:




.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The potential for a plowable snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
has increased. Near whiteout conditions could occur on Thursday,
especially near the coast, where very gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop. It is important to note that both snowfall
amounts and the severity of impacts we see from this system will
ultimately depend on how close the offshore low tracks to our area,
which is still uncertain at this time.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:15 pm

If you could give that boxing day storm I will be one happy man Very Happy

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Hey gang thanks for the kind words.
Just checking in and noticing that we have windshield wiper effect with the divergence between the models.
One thing I have noticed is the cyclogensis of this beast by pulling all this latent heat from the +++AMO - Atlantic waters. I have to say if this gets to 960 ish range or below this will be exytremely impressive as depicted by a good majority of models. We need to the jet structure to come more west by id say 50 miles to bring this due North or NNE.
It may actually be convective feedback as Tony pointed out by the model seeing two convective lows and jumping to the most convection which is out sea/east when the real or actual LP is furtehr west. What casues this in models - latent heat. We've seen this with tropical entities and powerful Nor'easters before. Will this be again I dont know, maybe rb, Armando, Sroc or Frank can answer or anyone else here.
That little frickin Northern energy is acting like a kicker instead of a capture for this storm. It has to be fixed. The full sampling of teh ebergy will be completed from what I read on NWS by 6Z tomorrow morning if this is true.
Lets not get IMBY posts here, we all want the beautifull huge piles and amounts of white gold but unless we have a blizzard of 1978,1888 or teh day after tomorrow storm someone will be getting much less or screwed.
CMC, RGEM have been very good this winter so far with these storm. Lets hope and pray they are right again.

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:30 pm

With start time of this event being as early as Midnight Wednesday, watches could technically go up tonight or tmw morning

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:32 pm

Hey all just caught up had bad headache and insomnia till 5am. Just woke. Things sound overall ok? The euro def had one consolidated low last night as I posted so it may have a decent idea and hopefully we can see a pull west from now on. The rgem is awesome would it be more than 10:1,? In terms of temps big warmup Thurs Fri into 30s so syo it's go be briefly a lot warmer. I know that's a kick to the nads right lol
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Post by Carter bk Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:34 pm

I think we are gonna get a monster up the coast. Just think the euro 7 days out was right

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Post by Carter bk Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:35 pm

Afer the storm temps will crash for about 4 days if we get storm snow pack should out last warm up

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Post by Carter bk Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:36 pm

Acuuweather increased now to 1 to3 for brookly ny

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:40 pm

I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:48 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....
soul it forming a nice clean low might have been a good thing and now all it has do is come west. keep the hope. carter god i hope ur right.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:49 pm

12z Deep Thunder

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