Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Until EURO comes aboard, I'm cautiously optimistic.Frank_Wx wrote:JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
The precip on the UKIE is kind of similar to CMC, so this could end up still being a nice hit
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Read this on twitter and I actually think they're right. We don't want phasing with the northern short wave energy. Since the southern energy is so potent, it can turn the trough negative on its own once H5 closes off. The northern energy would act as a kicker if it tries to phase into the southern lobe. So, need to see more spacing between the northern and southern branches. That will allow the precip shield to build west even if the low is off the coast.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
UKMET continues its Eastward pull. Remains the Eastern outlier actually. That model always worries me when it's not on board.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Ukie has some precip for NYC south
CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.
The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.
The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
The reason its east of the other models is it still has the double barrel low setup. The other models thus far today has trended away from it to a more consolidated look.SoulSingMG wrote:UKMET continues its Eastward pull. Remains the Eastern outlier actually. That model always worries me when it's not on board.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:syosnow94 wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?
I live on the coast and legitimately have ZERO concern about any mixing issues. It’s freaking Siberia outside.
Love ya but you should know better, today has no bearing on Thursday temps.
Not going to happen but if this somehow ran up and over NYC we would all change to mixed precip me included, despite it being below zero in many parts this morning, and eastern NE and eastern LI it would rain.
I know CP BUT there has not been a single solution from any model bringing this thing close enough to warrant concern for mixing AND when a storm bombs out like this one will offshore it dramatically cools the column.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Snow88 wrote:Ukie has some precip for NYC south
CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.
The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
Steve DeMart just said something similar about how the setup somewhat resembles the Boxing Day Bz setup and how models were unable to sort out their convection chasing until the 11th hour.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I agree 100%Snow88 wrote:Ukie has some precip for NYC south
CMC ensembles agree with the op and it's west of the 0z run. The low is alot closer to the coast than 0z.
The models might be chasing the convection to the east. We saw this with the Jan 2016 blizzard. I am not saying that this will be the same outcome but something to keep in mind.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I just read the Mt. Holly discussion and they are rather bullish, as is Red Sox Suck. Uptown is very conservative saying a low risk for 6”+
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Um no.SoulSingMG wrote:This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I'm going to say this: The fact that we are now seeing a trend toward ONE low, is significant in and of itself.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Frank_Wx wrote:JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall
You trust these enough without the major globals on board buddy, or are they already on board enough?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
12z NAVGEM is west
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Quietace wrote:Um no.SoulSingMG wrote:This is the latest CRAS run — allegedly the first model to pick up on Boxing Day. Can someone more seasoned weigh in on its overall credibility?
Well alright then.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
MT. Holly HWO:
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The potential for a plowable snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
has increased. Near whiteout conditions could occur on Thursday,
especially near the coast, where very gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop. It is important to note that both snowfall
amounts and the severity of impacts we see from this system will
ultimately depend on how close the offshore low tracks to our area,
which is still uncertain at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The potential for a plowable snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
has increased. Near whiteout conditions could occur on Thursday,
especially near the coast, where very gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop. It is important to note that both snowfall
amounts and the severity of impacts we see from this system will
ultimately depend on how close the offshore low tracks to our area,
which is still uncertain at this time.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
If you could give that boxing day storm I will be one happy man
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Hey gang thanks for the kind words.
Just checking in and noticing that we have windshield wiper effect with the divergence between the models.
One thing I have noticed is the cyclogensis of this beast by pulling all this latent heat from the +++AMO - Atlantic waters. I have to say if this gets to 960 ish range or below this will be exytremely impressive as depicted by a good majority of models. We need to the jet structure to come more west by id say 50 miles to bring this due North or NNE.
It may actually be convective feedback as Tony pointed out by the model seeing two convective lows and jumping to the most convection which is out sea/east when the real or actual LP is furtehr west. What casues this in models - latent heat. We've seen this with tropical entities and powerful Nor'easters before. Will this be again I dont know, maybe rb, Armando, Sroc or Frank can answer or anyone else here.
That little frickin Northern energy is acting like a kicker instead of a capture for this storm. It has to be fixed. The full sampling of teh ebergy will be completed from what I read on NWS by 6Z tomorrow morning if this is true.
Lets not get IMBY posts here, we all want the beautifull huge piles and amounts of white gold but unless we have a blizzard of 1978,1888 or teh day after tomorrow storm someone will be getting much less or screwed.
CMC, RGEM have been very good this winter so far with these storm. Lets hope and pray they are right again.
Just checking in and noticing that we have windshield wiper effect with the divergence between the models.
One thing I have noticed is the cyclogensis of this beast by pulling all this latent heat from the +++AMO - Atlantic waters. I have to say if this gets to 960 ish range or below this will be exytremely impressive as depicted by a good majority of models. We need to the jet structure to come more west by id say 50 miles to bring this due North or NNE.
It may actually be convective feedback as Tony pointed out by the model seeing two convective lows and jumping to the most convection which is out sea/east when the real or actual LP is furtehr west. What casues this in models - latent heat. We've seen this with tropical entities and powerful Nor'easters before. Will this be again I dont know, maybe rb, Armando, Sroc or Frank can answer or anyone else here.
That little frickin Northern energy is acting like a kicker instead of a capture for this storm. It has to be fixed. The full sampling of teh ebergy will be completed from what I read on NWS by 6Z tomorrow morning if this is true.
Lets not get IMBY posts here, we all want the beautifull huge piles and amounts of white gold but unless we have a blizzard of 1978,1888 or teh day after tomorrow storm someone will be getting much less or screwed.
CMC, RGEM have been very good this winter so far with these storm. Lets hope and pray they are right again.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
With start time of this event being as early as Midnight Wednesday, watches could technically go up tonight or tmw morning
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Hey all just caught up had bad headache and insomnia till 5am. Just woke. Things sound overall ok? The euro def had one consolidated low last night as I posted so it may have a decent idea and hopefully we can see a pull west from now on. The rgem is awesome would it be more than 10:1,? In terms of temps big warmup Thurs Fri into 30s so syo it's go be briefly a lot warmer. I know that's a kick to the nads right lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I think we are gonna get a monster up the coast. Just think the euro 7 days out was right
Carter bk- Posts : 73
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Afer the storm temps will crash for about 4 days if we get storm snow pack should out last warm up
Carter bk- Posts : 73
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Acuuweather increased now to 1 to3 for brookly ny
Carter bk- Posts : 73
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
soul it forming a nice clean low might have been a good thing and now all it has do is come west. keep the hope. carter god i hope ur right.SoulSingMG wrote:I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
12z Deep Thunder
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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