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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:40 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:RGEM just demolished SE NE.
no good for us? is it east or west from last run
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:44 pm

im only seeing out to hr 48 on rgem
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:RGEM just demolished SE NE.
no good for us? is it east or west from last run

Not sure, I don't have last run in front of me but we aren't getting any *definitive answers on this baby tonight. Too much sh*t going on in the atmosphere and models are LOST.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:46 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:RGEM just demolished SE NE.
no good for us? is it east or west from last run

Not sure, I don't have last run in front of me but we aren't getting any *definitive answers on this baby tonight. Too much sh*t going on in the atmosphere and models are LOST.
how did u find out it crushed se ne? lost is better than right still lots of hope but being cautious sroc, very much so.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:47 pm

GFS basically the same, maybe a little east. Not surprised haha

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:48 pm

Noticable changes already on the GFS... Slower progression...
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:51 pm

gfs looks bout same, soul is right i think we gotta wait till at least 12z tomorrow to maybe start seeing some real answers.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:52 pm

CMC looks good through hr 42. A little early to tell, but every reason to believe it should hold from 12z, maybe come a tick more west

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:gfs looks bout same, soul is right i think we gotta wait till at least 12z tomorrow to maybe start seeing some real answers.

GFS continued to make improvements aloft though, and even initial placement of the low off the SE is further west than previous runs.
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Post by Vinnydula Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:55 pm

Losing all hope!
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:01 pm

Well it didn't come west, a little weaker and slightly east. Precip doesn't look as good either. Not bad verbatim, but moving in the wrong direction

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:01 pm

00z CMC shifted east from what I can see.

upset
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:04 pm

CMC LP placement is almost exactly like 12z but western precip is a bit weaker
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:05 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 21 092cb010
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 pm

I brought up earlier in this thread that in the two days before the snow events this past December, there was a NW trend. If there were to be such a trend, it would be happening starting with the 12Z suite tomorrow.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:15 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:I brought up earlier in this thread that in the two days before the snow events this past December, there was a NW trend.  If there were to be such a trend, it would be happening starting with the 12Z suite tomorrow.

If we're going to see any positives that would be the time.
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:18 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:I brought up earlier in this thread that in the two days before the snow events this past December, there was a NW trend.  If there were to be such a trend, it would be happening starting with the 12Z suite tomorrow.

If we're going to see any positives that would be the time.

....But if we don't see a trend NW tomorrow morning, I don't think we will get the big snow Razz

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:13 am

Euro is way east. We needed tonight's 00z's to be solid and they were the contrary. Tough pill to swallow but there'll be more to track this winter. G'night.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:18 am

@SoulSingMG wrote: Euro is way east. We needed tonight's 00z's to be solid and they were the contrary. Tough pill to swallow but there'll be more to track this winter. G'night.

Well if we don't see some drastic changes within 24 hours it may be time to stick a fork in this one.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:24 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote: Euro is way east. We needed tonight's 00z's to be solid and they were the contrary. Tough pill to swallow but there'll be more to track this winter. G'night.

Well if we don't see some drastic changes within 24 hours it may be time to stick a fork in this one.

I'm forking it (for now). I am of course saying that all the while wishing for a Boxing Day redeux. We'll see.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:32 am

The n a m is coming in well West and really amped up
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:37 am

946mb right near the benchmark precipitation field much for the West 3 to 6 in for the city of foot or more on Long Island
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:40 am

The three K NAM is going to absolutely crush us 951 MB just east of Hatteras not done with its run yet
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:02 am

3k nam did that eastward move with the precip field. still 4-6" for the city with a foot for LI.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:03 am

Giddy up Al

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_________________
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