Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

3k nam did that eastward move with the precip field. still 4-6" for the city with a foot for LI.

Giddy up Al

rgem is going west too!!! has snow as far west as dc. run not over yet. WOW!!!!! precip makes it all the way into east central PA. waiting on updated storm totals. could be some mixing issues if rgem verifies.

We’ll see if this all holds for tomorrow’s 12z.

gfs is also significantly west with slp however the precip field is not west but actually east a bit. lol at the gfs. good trends to start the day. off to bed can't wait for 12z runs

Wow look the man this morning

nws disco...
Consensus operational/ensemble track takes a 970-975 mb low, located
about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras Thursday morning, down to a
955-960 mb low about 100 miles se of the 40/70 benchmark by Thursday
afternoon, and then about 150 mile e/ne of Cape Cod by Thu evening
as a 950-955 mb low. Very impressive deepening! But looking at
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members there is about a 100 miles radius of
track/timing differences, predicated on the subtle mid-level
differences mentioned earlier. So although there is high confidence
in the explosive strengthening of the low, there is still quite a
bit of wiggle room with how close/far from the coast that the low
tracks. Trend over the last 24 hours has been slightly closer to the
coast.

Taking into account the above uncertainty and an operational and
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus, the probability for at least a light
accumulating snowfall event for the area is high for Wed Night into
Thu Night. Have increased pops to categorical for east of the Hudson
river and likely to the west, based on GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs
for 1/10th inch QPF over the region late Wed Night into early Thu
Night. Potential for 6 inches of snow has trended higher over the
last 24 hrs for LI/SE CT as well, looking at the 24 hr prob of 1/2
inch qpf. For E LI/SE CT, 00z ECMWF ensembles indicating 40-50 %
chance, while GEFS 20-30 percent over eastern US. Meanwhile, the
SREF is very aggressive with QPF, averaging anywhere from 50 to 80
prob of over 1/2 inch qpf. Of note, the 06z NAM has shifted close to
the 40/70 benchmark with 3/4 to 1 1/4 inches qpf for much of the
region, which is within the spread seen with the SREF/ECMWF
ensembles.

So at this point, a good compromise for likely qpf is staying close
to the ECMWF ensemble mean (reflected well in WPC qpf), which is in
between wetter and typically overdispersed SREF / and drier and
typically underdispersed GEFS. This results in 1/4 to 1/2 inch qpf
across LI/SE CT, 1/10th to 1/4 inch across NYC/NJ metro and SW CT,
and up to 1/10th to the NW. Based on blend of snow ratio algorithms
and WPC, this points towards a likelihood of 4 to 6 inch snowfall
for E LI/SE CT, 2 to 4 inches westwards to the Hudson River, and
less than 2 inches to the NW. This is a fluid situation though based
on model spread, with potential for these numbers to go down
slightly but more so upwards based on model trends and mode of
SREF/GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members. This is reflected in latest
WFO/WPC snow probs, with low-moderate prob of greater than 6 inches
of snow across E LI/SE CT, and a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more than
10-12 inches of snow across the entire area.

I have to say coastal areas and long island appear to be in good spots for a heavy snow.

I wonder if we are going to see blizzard or winter storm watches go up soon

skinsfan1177 wrote:I have to say coastal areas and long island appear to be in good spots for a heavy snow.

At this juncture, I agree with you.If areas more inland from you are going to see heavy snow, the storm has got to start ticking more west from today on.I like being in the 1 to 3 inch category at this juncture.Reminds me very much of Boxing day.

Wow 06z nam! NW shift big time am I right?

I woke up at 2:30 checked in saw all the global trend way east and went back to bed all bummed out and pissed off.  Then I wake up to optimism this morning over the NAM?  What the hell is going on?  If it is gonna snow I hope it comes west so we all get in on it.

And where is rb video and what happened to Frank last 24 hours?

syosnow94 wrote:I woke up at 2:30 checked in saw all the global trend way east and went back to bed all bummed out and pissed off.  Then I wake up to optimism this morning over the NAM?  What the hell is going on?  If it is gonna snow I hope it comes west so we all get in on it.

And where is rb video and what happened to Frank last 24 hours?

Good morning
..exact same thing going on here got up was disappointed went back to sleep and woke up now to this..also  my husband wants to know why I have my kindle under my pillow and why a light keeps popping on at all times of the night..lol..this is just a crazy ride...

Rgem only out to her 54 but it could be a godzilla judging by the totals to the South. Please please continue trends west! The 12z are crucial not to go backwards here on out am I right? Gfs pfff

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we are going to see blizzard or winter storm watches go up soon

WSW UP FOR THE PLACE THAT WILL REMAIN NAMELESS

Grrrr lol

weatherwatchermom wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I woke up at 2:30 checked in saw all the global trend way east and went back to bed all bummed out and pissed off.  Then I wake up to optimism this morning over the NAM?  What the hell is going on?  If it is gonna snow I hope it comes west so we all get in on it.

And where is rb video and what happened to Frank last 24 hours?

Good morning
..exact same thing going on here got up was disappointed and woke up now to this..also  my husband wants to know why I have my kindle under my pillow and why a light keeps popping on at all times of the night..lol..this is just a crazy ride...

I just got that same question from my wife as I read your post. Hysterically laughing right now

syosnow94 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I woke up at 2:30 checked in saw all the global trend way east and went back to bed all bummed out and pissed off.  Then I wake up to optimism this morning over the NAM?  What the hell is going on?  If it is gonna snow I hope it comes west so we all get in on it.

And where is rb video and what happened to Frank last 24 hours?

Good morning
..exact same thing going on here got up was disappointed and woke up now to this..also  my husband wants to know why I have my kindle under my pillow and why a light keeps popping on at all times of the night..lol..this is just a crazy ride...

I just got that same question from my wife as I read your post. Hysterically laughing right now

Ha ha .....this needs to resolve itself....these no sleep nights not in our 20's anymore...hope you have a good first day back at school...here's to good trends

Yep, Jimmy, NWS not buying NAM yet as they have this way east just hitting the you know where but I don't want to say it lest I be banished forever from this site.Laughing at the poor souls here watching model run to model run.OTI Sanitarium candidates for sure,LOL.I'll get excited tomorrow evening if I see the west trend continues.So far, so good.

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we are going to see blizzard or winter storm watches go up soon

Blizzard Watches are no longer a thing.

syosnow94 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we are going to see blizzard or winter storm watches go up soon

WSW UP FOR THE PLACE THAT WILL REMAIN NAMELESS

You will get your snow don't worry

I think I need to get off this ship for a day, starting to get sea sick. Doubt I’ll be able to take a 12 hour break even though this doesn’t appear to be much of a HV threat.

Al always seems to come to the rescue when these storms are on life support. When you see several Al posts at 4 AM you know the trends are positive.

WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

LOL, well, Mugs, I have seen the NWS start off so low on snow totals and then adjust hilariously higher when the storm hits and they realize they made the wrong model interpretation.Let's see what happens on this storm.So far they have me for "snow and blustery" Thursday after snow starts midnight on Wednesday with less than one inch accumulation.They SHOULD be saying periods of light snow,LMAO.The NWS Shuffle!!!

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:WSW are up from Fla to Maine except for NJ and NY, can't make this up.

If the positive trends continue on the 12Z's, and that's a big if with this storm, I would think at least LI, NYC and the jersey shore areas have one by the 4pm updates.

the movement this morning has me thinking there's actually a good chance 12z does shift west or ne. Don't u want snow cp let's reel it in.

Most WSW -> BW due to winds....probably tonight.