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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

There will be wind but nothing like closer to the low.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

Boy that blue is just east of me little bit more west

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I literally need a 15 miles shift west to be in the blue but with ratios .5  plus is 6 to 12 no?

Few more miles on the high res and I may start shouting for joy...
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.

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Post by Quietace Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

In my years of tracking this may be a top 3 most difficult forecast
I believe it. Though it has been getting easier to see through the mess of guidance the last couple cycles.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

In my years of tracking this may be a top 3 most difficult forecast

Also agree!!! ahaha

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Post by Quietace Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:40 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.
I am not sold YET on us getting that low. However, if that third piece gets fully in the game I am with you.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:40 pm

This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:40 pm

I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lolPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 36 26514010
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Post by Quietace Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:42 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.
I am not sure you want it that much further west. Then some people may cry. CAA was weaker that run. Temps a bit higher.....

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:43 pm

Absolutely amazing trend at H5, though.

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:44 pm

@aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lolPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 36 26514010
This tells you far through the wringer I’ve been drug by this storm; I’m in the dry slot in that snow map (just under 6”) and I’d sign for it! Lol.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:45 pm

I am speechless. Completely speechless.
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:45 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lolPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 36 26514010
This tells you far through the wringer I’ve been drug by this storm; I’m in the dry slot in that snow map (just under 6”) and I’d sign for it! Lol.

Least your in it! I a outside of it by a few miles Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:45 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.
I am not sold YET on us getting that low. However, if that third piece gets fully in the game I am with you.

I think the Northern Hemispheric pattern supports it, and would therefore think it's more likely than not (biased toward my own ideas, admittedly), but your apprehension is precisely why I said "if it's a true trend" ahaha modeling has not been kind to us so far with it lmao

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Post by Joe Snow Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:47 pm

@aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lolPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 36 26514010

I'll take it
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Omg beantown sees 20 to 30 without ratios I hate my family there lol jk but damn

It doesn't count until it actually happens.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:50 pm

So when are the nezt model runs, the ones that will reveal all
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:50 pm

Wow 3 km wind gusts in upper 50s even NYC area long island real close to 60s 70s wow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:52 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.
I am not sure you want it that much further west. Then some people may cry. CAA was weaker that run. Temps a bit higher.....

Agreed, it looks like eastern Massachusetts totals especially the Cape are cut down on that run. Mixing issues.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:55 pm

Selfishly for where I live I say let it mix on the Cape.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:57 pm

@dkodgis wrote:So when are the nezt model runs, the ones that will reveal all

Well, RGEM runs in about another half hour, then the GFS starts at about 10:40-ish. CMC starts around 11-11:10-ish. UK comes in around 12-12:30, and then we have the GFS Ensembles after that. the CMC ensembles and EURO don't run until about 12:50-ish. Then the EURO ensembles runs at about 3am. Then 06z's start lol

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:58 pm

@billg315 wrote:Selfishly for where I live I say let it mix on the Cape.

Agreed.

It could pour all day there for all I care. My favorite storm of all time was February 25 2010, I saw 35 inches IMBY, 21 inches in NYC and drenching rains in beantown, it doesn't get any better than that.
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:59 pm

RGEM out to hr 18 so far. Slightly west of 18z

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:59 pm

Correction to above, RGEM running now. It completes in about a half hour.

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