Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

Agree!!

Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

In my years of tracking this may be a top 3 most difficult forecast

There will be wind but nothing like closer to the low.

Boy that blue is just east of me little bit more west

jmanley32 wrote:I literally need a 15 miles shift west to be in the blue but with ratios .5  plus is 6 to 12 no?

Few more miles on the high res and I may start shouting for joy...

Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

In my years of tracking this may be a top 3 most difficult forecast

I believe it. Though it has been getting easier to see through the mess of guidance the last couple cycles.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Quietace wrote:Finally something shows the correct-ish solution.

In my years of tracking this may be a top 3 most difficult forecast

Also agree!!! ahaha

rb924119 wrote:Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.

I am not sold YET on us getting that low. However, if that third piece gets fully in the game I am with you.

This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.

I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lol

jmanley32 wrote:This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.

I am not sure you want it that much further west. Then some people may cry. CAA was weaker that run. Temps a bit higher.....

Absolutely amazing trend at H5, though.

aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lol

This tells you far through the wringer I’ve been drug by this storm; I’m in the dry slot in that snow map (just under 6”) and I’d sign for it! Lol.

I am speechless. Completely speechless.

billg315 wrote:

aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lol

This tells you far through the wringer I’ve been drug by this storm; I’m in the dry slot in that snow map (just under 6”) and I’d sign for it! Lol.

Least your in it! I a outside of it by a few miles

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hi-Res DEFINITELY showed interaction with energy #3. If that's a true trend, dear lord we could be looking at 940mb or thereabouts.

I am not sold YET on us getting that low. However, if that third piece gets fully in the game I am with you.

I think the Northern Hemispheric pattern supports it, and would therefore think it's more likely than not (biased toward my own ideas, admittedly), but your apprehension is precisely why I said "if it's a true trend" ahaha modeling has not been kind to us so far with it lmao

aiannone wrote:I hate snow maps, but this is sexy lol

I'll take it

jmanley32 wrote:Omg beantown sees 20 to 30 without ratios I hate my family there lol jk but damn

It doesn't count until it actually happens.

So when are the nezt model runs, the ones that will reveal all

Wow 3 km wind gusts in upper 50s even NYC area long island real close to 60s 70s wow.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This is exciting to track and give u all credence for your efforts no matter the outcome but let's get this a tad more west! Is there a 3km snow map with ratios would love to see.

I am not sure you want it that much further west. Then some people may cry. CAA was weaker that run. Temps a bit higher.....

Agreed, it looks like eastern Massachusetts totals especially the Cape are cut down on that run. Mixing issues.

Selfishly for where I live I say let it mix on the Cape.

dkodgis wrote:So when are the nezt model runs, the ones that will reveal all

Well, RGEM runs in about another half hour, then the GFS starts at about 10:40-ish. CMC starts around 11-11:10-ish. UK comes in around 12-12:30, and then we have the GFS Ensembles after that. the CMC ensembles and EURO don't run until about 12:50-ish. Then the EURO ensembles runs at about 3am. Then 06z's start lol

billg315 wrote:Selfishly for where I live I say let it mix on the Cape.

Agreed.

It could pour all day there for all I care. My favorite storm of all time was February 25 2010, I saw 35 inches IMBY, 21 inches in NYC and drenching rains in beantown, it doesn't get any better than that.

RGEM out to hr 18 so far. Slightly west of 18z

Correction to above, RGEM running now. It completes in about a half hour.