Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
snow map is even low for those areas all up and down coast.syosnow94 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM
The storm must have just jumped east again. 1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck. Doesn’t make sense
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?
Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday. Thats not high ratio temp.Sanchize06 wrote:jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?
Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
syosnow94 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM
The storm must have just jumped east again. 1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck. Doesn’t make sense
It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
NVM temps have dropped on the SR models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
billg315 wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM
The storm must have just jumped east again. 1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck. Doesn’t make sense
It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.
It's either subsidence near us or it turns ENE at the mid atlantic latitudes or it's just not our storm. If it plays out like this it is odd but we certainly have seen enough similar runs so as not to be surprised.
I'm back to hoping for 2-4, and anything extra if it comes I'll treat as a gift.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
This storm is like a God damn roller coaster. I have a headache.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday. Thats not high ratio temp.Sanchize06 wrote:jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?
Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Yeah, I do know there is a lot of factors that go into snow growth and ratios. It's more than just the surface. Most models I've seen have shown better than 10-1 ratios
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
I have never booked on more than 1-3” from this so it would take a complete debacle (ie partly sunny with flurries Thursday), to disappoint me and not a whole lot extra to excite me.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
30 hours out and the hi res NAM gives me 20” followed by the RGEM giving me 5”
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Actually, the snow map from the RGEM isn't all that terrible. It gets more further west than the 3k, but just isn't as robust with the higher totals.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Fox 5 weather teaser... "Bombogenisis"
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
rb924119 wrote:
If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better
Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley. 4-8” NYC Jersey coast. 8-12” across LI more east. Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
rb924119 wrote:
It’s going to snow heavy enough for a foot in southern Delaware and 10” in Cape May and then, poof, that band disappears and Belmar NJ gets 5”. Lol. Not sure this is accurate from mid-jersey coast to LI. But it gives me 7” (again strangely more than LI??) so I’d take it.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 wrote:
If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid
Hey, you still can.....just has to pass the judgement of our fearless leader and fellow head haunchos haha you can start a petition, I'll take no offense lmfaooo
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
rb924119 wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better
Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!
I like it, it's really helpful in seeing how the ratios are. Don't know how accurate it is though haha
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
jmanley32 wrote:GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.
I don't think at this stage that would surprise any of us.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
syosnow94 wrote:Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley. 4-8” NYC Jersey coast. 8-12” across LI more east. Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area
Oh yeah, this is terrible. Any big event is terrible, really, but this is more difficult than most. I'm actually kind of glad that I am not actually putting out hard numbers this winter lmfao this would have landed me in a box. Heck, it still might!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Wow 1-2 inch with ratios for me, parts of LI 8 with ratios.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
Gfs is about 50 miles west
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th
GFS
Last edited by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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