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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday. Thats not high ratio temp.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 5a4c49537074a

The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:25 pm

NVM temps have dropped on the SR models.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:28 pm

@billg315 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 5a4c49537074a

The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.

It's either subsidence near us or it turns ENE at the mid atlantic latitudes or it's just not our storm. If it plays out like this it is odd but we certainly have seen enough similar runs so as not to be surprised.

I'm back to hoping for 2-4, and anything extra if it comes I'll treat as a gift.
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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:30 pm

This storm is like a God damn roller coaster. I have a headache.
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday.  Thats not high ratio temp.

Yeah, I do know there is a lot of factors that go into snow growth and ratios. It's more than just the surface. Most models I've seen have shown better than 10-1 ratios

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:32 pm

I have never booked on more than 1-3” from this so it would take a complete debacle (ie partly sunny with flurries Thursday), to disappoint me and not a whole lot extra to excite me.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

30 hours out and the hi res NAM gives me 20” followed by the RGEM giving me 5” facepalm

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

Actually, the snow map from the RGEM isn't all that terrible. It gets more further west than the 3k, but just isn't as robust with the higher totals.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Fox 5 weather teaser... "Bombogenisis"






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Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:41 pm

Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley. 4-8” NYC Jersey coast. 8-12” across LI more east. Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

GFS very similar to 18z
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

It’s going to snow heavy enough for a foot in southern Delaware and 10” in Cape May and then, poof, that band disappears and Belmar NJ gets 5”. Lol. Not sure this is accurate from mid-jersey coast to LI. But it gives me 7” (again strangely more than LI??) so I’d take it.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid

Hey, you still can.....just has to pass the judgement of our fearless leader and fellow head haunchos haha you can start a petition, I'll take no offense lmfaooo

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

I like it, it's really helpful in seeing how the ratios are. Don't know how accurate it is though haha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.

I don't think at this stage that would surprise any of us.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley.  4-8” NYC Jersey coast.  8-12” across LI more east.  Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area

Oh yeah, this is terrible. Any big event is terrible, really, but this is more difficult than most. I'm actually kind of glad that I am not actually putting out hard numbers this winter lmfao this would have landed me in a box. Heck, it still might!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:46 pm

Wow 1-2 inch with ratios for me, parts of LI 8 with ratios.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Vinnydula Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

Gfs is about 50 miles west
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

GFS

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Snku_acc.us_ne


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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