NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

+47
RJB8525
bloc1357
Lnda23
essexcountypete
SnowForest
emokid51783
docstox12
hurrysundown23
Scullybutcher
Math23x7
GreyBeard
Snow88
bobjohnsonforthehall
lglickman1
SENJsnowman
Quietace
mmanisca
SoulSingMG
mwilli5783
amugs
Grselig
Artechmetals
MattyICE
Vinnydula
Radz
deadrabbit79
weatherwatchermom
jake732
dsix85
CPcantmeasuresnow
Dunnzoo
Carter bk
oldtimer
Sanchize06
algae888
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
jimv45
mikeypizano
sroc4
aiannone
skinsfan1177
hyde345
billg315
frank 638
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
51 posters

Page 38 of 39 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39  Next

Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 5a4c49537074a

The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense
snow map is even low for those areas all up and down coast.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:21 pm

jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Join date : 2013-02-05

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday. Thats not high ratio temp.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 5a4c49537074a

The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4532
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:25 pm

NVM temps have dropped on the SR models.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:28 pm

billg315 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 5a4c49537074a

The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.

It's either subsidence near us or it turns ENE at the mid atlantic latitudes or it's just not our storm. If it plays out like this it is odd but we certainly have seen enough similar runs so as not to be surprised.

I'm back to hoping for 2-4, and anything extra if it comes I'll treat as a gift.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:30 pm

This storm is like a God damn roller coaster. I have a headache.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday.  Thats not high ratio temp.

Yeah, I do know there is a lot of factors that go into snow growth and ratios. It's more than just the surface. Most models I've seen have shown better than 10-1 ratios

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:32 pm

I have never booked on more than 1-3” from this so it would take a complete debacle (ie partly sunny with flurries Thursday), to disappoint me and not a whole lot extra to excite me.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4532
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

30 hours out and the hi res NAM gives me 20” followed by the RGEM giving me 5” facepalm

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

Actually, the snow map from the RGEM isn't all that terrible. It gets more further west than the 3k, but just isn't as robust with the higher totals.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Fox 5 weather teaser... "Bombogenisis"






weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3879
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:41 pm

Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley. 4-8” NYC Jersey coast. 8-12” across LI more east. Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

GFS very similar to 18z

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4823
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

It’s going to snow heavy enough for a foot in southern Delaware and 10” in Cape May and then, poof, that band disappears and Belmar NJ gets 5”. Lol. Not sure this is accurate from mid-jersey coast to LI. But it gives me 7” (again strangely more than LI??) so I’d take it.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4532
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Screen16

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid

Hey, you still can.....just has to pass the judgement of our fearless leader and fellow head haunchos haha you can start a petition, I'll take no offense lmfaooo

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Ratioku.us_ne

Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

I like it, it's really helpful in seeing how the ratios are. Don't know how accurate it is though haha

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.

I don't think at this stage that would surprise any of us.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley.  4-8” NYC Jersey coast.  8-12” across LI more east.  Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area

Oh yeah, this is terrible. Any big event is terrible, really, but this is more difficult than most. I'm actually kind of glad that I am not actually putting out hard numbers this winter lmfao this would have landed me in a box. Heck, it still might!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:46 pm

Wow 1-2 inch with ratios for me, parts of LI 8 with ratios.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Vinnydula Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

Gfs is about 50 miles west
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

GFS

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Snku_acc.us_ne


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 38 Empty Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 38 of 39 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum