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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Empty January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 pm

Here is a stab at a snow map with this very tough and complex system. I will issue a final map tomorrow. At the moment, it seems like the storm will have to battle dry air and subsidence which is why the cut-off's are as dramatic as they are. Can't win them all but let's see what tomorrow brings.


\January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Jan_4_snow_map

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:53 pm

Wow. Thanks for the hard work but I expected higher. Good luck paesan

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:55 pm

CMC is horseshit lol. Get your brooms
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:57 pm

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Captur13
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:58 pm

This (Franks map) actually is in line with what I was thinking this morning. After all sorts of ups and downs today I feel this brings me back to where I started the day in expectations. Maybe sometimes things simply are what they appear to be.
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:01 pm

I don’t like it...
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:02 pm

Great map, Frank!! It definitely represents consensus well right now, given recent trends. In your opinion, if you *HAD* to adjust, do you foresee yourself changing this in any one direction, higher or lower, based on what you are currently seeing? I'm just curious lol What does your gut say? aha

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:06 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Great map, Frank!! It definitely represents consensus well right now, given recent trends. In your opinion, if you *HAD* to adjust, do you foresee yourself changing this in any one direction, higher or lower, based on what you are currently seeing? I'm just curious lol

Higher. I am still wrapping my mind around a deepening cyclone near the 40/70 BM delivering minor accumulations to most of the region. But digesting facts from Mets, including you, is slowly making me realize we're probably not set-up as such. It's possible snow amounts increase for those in the purple and blue but stay as is for the rest of us simply because of dry air but better forcing getting into some of the banding.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:07 pm

I am looking forward to some sort of post mortem once this thing is done and gone. After all of the model waffling and endless possibilities...I am looking forward to finding out what actually ended up transpiring when all is said and done.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Great map, Frank!! It definitely represents consensus well right now, given recent trends. In your opinion, if you *HAD* to adjust, do you foresee yourself changing this in any one direction, higher or lower, based on what you are currently seeing? I'm just curious lol

Higher. I am still wrapping my mind around a deepening cyclone near the 40/70 BM delivering minor accumulations to most of the region. But digesting facts from Mets, including you, is slowly making me realize we're probably not set-up as such. It's possible snow amounts increase for those in the purple and blue but stay as is for the rest of us simply because of dry air but better forcing getting into some of the banding.

One thing to note is with a rapidly deepening LP, we will likely see a strong Deformation band form. To either side of that their could be some subsidence and therefore low totals. Similar situation happened with Nemo in Feb 2013, deform band went through CCT, CLI/ELI and WLI and NYC suffered a bit.
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:13 pm

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Captur18
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Great map, Frank!! It definitely represents consensus well right now, given recent trends. In your opinion, if you *HAD* to adjust, do you foresee yourself changing this in any one direction, higher or lower, based on what you are currently seeing? I'm just curious lol

Higher. I am still wrapping my mind around a deepening cyclone near the 40/70 BM delivering minor accumulations to most of the region. But digesting facts from Mets, including you, is slowly making me realize we're probably not set-up as such. It's possible snow amounts increase for those in the purple and blue but stay as is for the rest of us simply because of dry air but better forcing getting into some of the banding.

Yeah, it really is counter intuitive. I can't honestly believe it either, even with the trajectory it's just odd to me. What really is grinding my gears, though, is the "jump". I can see the argument for the surface low as it follows the thermal gradient in the ocean, but the upper levels.....I don't know why that third piece kicks it instead of just seamlessly phasing in. I don't get it. That said, the continuous representation of the precipitation field by modeling is disconcerting for sure, and to bet against that would be tough, even for me lol Lastly, I hope you didn't let me influence YOUR forecast aha that would defeat the purpose of making one!! haha I won't lie though, I'm not too upset that I chose to largely sit this winter out, mainly because of this storm lmao

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:20 pm

Lee Goldberg going with 1-3" for NYC and 3-6" Jersey Shore
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:22 pm

Either TV mets are gonna be right or the public is going to get caught extremely offguard
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:23 pm

In eight hours, our second piece of energy has traveled from the ND/SD border and is now in southeastern NE. THAT'S HAULING.

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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:23 pm

Yes Lee said not much unless east and rain on Tuesday boy.

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:24 pm

@aiannone wrote:Lee Goldberg going with 1-3" for NYC and 3-6" Jersey Shore

Thats very conservative but thats what they do.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:26 pm

No Hyde I think he may be right big cutoff and dry air looks to win out.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:28 pm

HRDPS looks healthier with the western edge of the precipitation shield so far....

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:29 pm

@jimv45 wrote:No Hyde I think he may be right big cutoff and dry air looks to win out.

I still think its conservative but they always go low because they could raise totals tomorrow. I would go 3-5 NYC, 6-8 Jersey shore.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:30 pm

According to SPC Meso-analysis our surface low has actually retrograded toward the Gulf and is now due south of the central Keys lol

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:32 pm

This was the CMC with ratios

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Snku_acc.us_ne

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:35 pm

Anyone have the latest run of the SAM? It's the only model I will trust with this storm.

Thanks for all the hard work boys and girls, to be continued in some form in the am, maybe.
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:37 pm

Hi-Res RGEM definitely coming in wetter this run. Better precip field

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:38 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:This was the CMC with ratios

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map Snku_acc.us_ne

CMC is out to lunch. Low totals and I don't think west of Red Sox Suck is only going to get 4-5 inches, sorry.
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