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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:20 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Just remember everyone if this does pan out this Scott sacrificing himself for others.

There is no greater gift than to lay down once’s snow experience so that others snow experience may live.

lol! lol! lol!

HILARIOUS:

I regret that I have but one snowstorm to sacrifice for my Mainland Area!
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:NWS sounds like an ambulance chasing lawyer in a cheap suit waffling all over the place this morning,LOL.It could be less, it could be more , it could be MUCH more.Looks like they are buying more into that latest NAM run.If we get bombed as rb suggested in his videos, it;s going to be a riot watching them chase up the snow totals as the day progresses.

Doc I love your posts but this one woke up my wife. She’s pissed off. I laughed out loud.

OOOOOPS, LOL,sorry Jimmy, don't want you starting your day in the doghouse! Let's bring that NAM model home.I'll give you that 27 inches of CP and I get 18!!!
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Post by crippo84 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:57 am

The NAM is in its own camp with its bullish QPF for our area. Although it looks like the solution we all want to see, take it with a grain of salt. For now at least
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:02 am

@crippo84 wrote:The NAM is in its own camp with its bullish QPF for our area. Although it looks like the solution we all want to see, take it with a grain of salt. For now at least

The voice of wisdom.

Completely agree, and remaining cautiously optimistic.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:03 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:NWS sounds like an ambulance chasing lawyer in a cheap suit waffling all over the place this morning,LOL.It could be less, it could be more , it could be MUCH more.Looks like they are buying more into that latest NAM run.If we get bombed as rb suggested in his videos, it;s going to be a riot watching them chase up the snow totals as the day progresses.

Doc I love your posts but this one woke up my wife. She’s pissed off. I laughed out loud.
Ha ha my husband saw my kindle striking out from the pillow last night and he said on no and went to sleep in guest bedroom..lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:10 am

Must read from NWS

This interaction will affect the

track and timing of explosively deepening low pressure. The

other factor appears to be models having difficulty with
convection development and vorticity feedback off the US east

coast as this intense mid/upper level energy interacts with a

sub-tropical moisture plume, which also could play a

significant factor in low pressure track.


Operational models have already shifted about 50 miles closer

to LI with track of low pressure by late Thursday than 24 hrs
ago, with consensus track of a 955 to 960 mb low pressure

system tracking over or just se of the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark.

The exact phasing evolution will determine any additional

forecast track adjustment, with GEFS/ECMWF/SREF still showing at

least 150 miles of spread in members within 24-36 hrs. This

range of potential shift would have significant implication on

westward expanse of frontogenetically forced heavy snow banding,

and strong to damaging wind fields with this intense low. In

fact 06z NAM, has taken a significant shift westward from 00z

with its frontogenetic forcing, showing potential for 1 ft+ snow

across the entire area. For this reason, NHC will be doing a

reconnaissance flight and several dropsondes this

afternoon/evening off the Fl/SE US coast to better capture this

phasing and convection latent heat release in the models.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:13 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:Mt Holly clearly unsure about me here in Monmouth county as everyone else has either been upgraded to a WSW or placed under a WWA. Still a watch for now

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Phi
In Hazlet same as you in blue but they upped total from 1-3 to 3-6 in last couple of hours
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Post by deadrabbit79 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:13 am

@crippo84 wrote:The NAM is in its own camp with its bullish QPF for our area. Although it looks like the solution we all want to see, take it with a grain of salt. For now at least

Bernie may have been on to something in his video yesterday though when he kept mentioning the NAM perhaps

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:16 am

I actually thought the 06z GFS didn’t look bad on the whole in terms of how far west the precip shield was. Even the low placement up through the NC coast was good. And if it followed the kink in the isobars I would have expected it to track a little closer to the coast instead of doing the east jump it keeps doing near NJ.
Anyway, the NAM was a good enough wake up for me. Lol.


Last edited by billg315 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:18 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:Mt Holly clearly unsure about me here in Monmouth county as everyone else has either been upgraded to a WSW or placed under a WWA. Still a watch for now

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Phi
In Hazlet same as you in blue but they upped total from 1-3 to 3-6 in last couple of hours

Yeah, ultimately I think they'll go to a Winter Storm Warning, but I don't blame them for perhaps wanting to see the 12z runs first. Cut offs are tricky with this storm and Monmouth county is a little more difficult as the criteria is 6" for a warning whereas Ocean and places south are I believe 4 or 5".

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Post by sabamfa Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:18 am

So, Frank, for those of us that aren’t as well versed....does that statement basically mean the NAM could come to fruition for NNJ?

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:21 am

That statement means there is merit to the NAM solution and since there is such a wide spread of individual models only 24 hours out they can’t rule anything out. They’re basically saying yes we could possibly get a lot more than we’re expecting but we don’t have a handle on this yet.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:22 am

A couple of cool things to see here:

1. Northern s/w phasing into the southern s/w

2. Convection east of FL is real and one reason why models are struggling with exact track of the storm

3. TPV trough situating itself over GL to act as a pendulum to swing low pressure north

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Rb-animated

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:25 am

@sabamfa wrote:So, Frank, for those of us that aren’t as well versed....does that statement basically mean the NAM could come to fruition for NNJ?

Main takeaway is nothing is off the table and the 00z runs tonight will have extra data in them. We may not know the final outcome until 12 hours prior to start time. Kinda nuts.

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Post by sabamfa Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:25 am

@billg315 wrote:That statement means there is merit to the NAM solution and since there is such a wide spread of individual models only 24 hours out they can’t rule anything out. They’re basically saying yes we could possibly get a lot more than we’re expecting but we don’t have a handle on this yet.

Thanks, Bill!

And thanks, Frank!


Last edited by sabamfa on Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:25 am

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2WINTER_ANI.thumb.gif.43e9e7bbc88c8c4ce0b80415d31688ce

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Post by Carter bk Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:28 am

So if at 12 z show big hits its game on it feels like the georiga game comes down to the wire i still think we are going towards the euro7 days out solution just my two cents

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:29 am

Not really the wheelhouse of it, but the 6z GEFS is unchanged/ a tick east of the 0z run, SREFs not as impressive as some previous runs, only a few closer members. Really want to see this tuck inside the BM but I think it's unlikely TBH, so many things need to go right, not putting all stock in the NAM. Todays runs thru 0z will be important to tell whether the 6z NAM was on crack or onto something. But ultimately this is a nowcast situation.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2WINTER_ANI.thumb.gif.43e9e7bbc88c8c4ce0b80415d31688ce

Precip looks to be further NW in Georgia. Not even the 6z NAM I believe had precip that far NW

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:51 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not really the wheelhouse of it, but the 6z GEFS is unchanged/ a tick east of the 0z run, SREFs not as impressive as some previous runs, only a few closer members. Really want to see this tuck inside the BM but I think it's unlikely TBH, so many things need to go right, not putting all stock in the NAM. Todays runs thru 0z will be important to tell whether the 6z NAM was on crack or onto something. But ultimately this is a nowcast situation.
9z srefs are wetter
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:54 am

Just woke up HOLY MOTHER NAM!!!! 16 without ratios is near 2 feet!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N_tupPBtWQ
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Post by oldtimer Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:57 am

Guess where Cantore is ??

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:57 am

OMG 30 inches with ratios on NAM!!! And 60+ mph winds get into my area wahoo, have not read posts so I have to catch up but this looks incredile!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:12 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:Mt Holly clearly unsure about me here in Monmouth county as everyone else has either been upgraded to a WSW or placed under a WWA. Still a watch for now

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Phi
In Hazlet same as you in blue but they upped total from 1-3 to 3-6 in last couple of hours

Yeah, ultimately I think they'll go to a Winter Storm Warning, but I don't blame them for perhaps wanting to see the 12z runs first. Cut offs are tricky with this storm and Monmouth county is a little more difficult as the criteria is 6" for a warning whereas Ocean and places south are I believe 4 or 5".

hey I will take what I get and be happy...just think its funny our little spot is in watch vs warning.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:12 am

09z SREFS shifted west. Show a WNW lean and qpf increased

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 87F99C14-4327-43D2-8AFD-DAF59884F65D.gif.2c1c2046be1131e24457d95a6ec334d2

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 SREFNE24Precip09042

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