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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:56 am

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM coming in now. Already major differences with the southern s/w. So far looks weaker on the 12z NAM run compared to 06z.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 Download.gif.f22ad71682ee06f97f7272c6efb87151

Well that would be a kick in the ass, but not totally unexpected either.

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:56 am

NAM has snow in coastal locations by tonight.

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:58 am

Quietace wrote:NAM has snow in coastal locations by tonight.

Yeah that precip really reaches up the coast

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:00 am

NAM will come in east of 06z. H5 has not closed off yet. By this time 06z NAM had closed it off. That being said, precip still looks pretty good

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce198bdf5d_download(2).gif.02841e20759ace2233eecc29b803aaff

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:01 am

Looks like the NAM comes due north from hr 20 to 22

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:02 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like the NAM comes due north from hr 20 to 22

H5 closed off. Now it will tug NNW

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:02 am

Those looking at the NAM can tell a Major diff at the surface was the development of a secondary LP east towards the convection. That may have caused surface reflection to jump east initially before adjusting back west when H5 closed off. Still will be a excellent run, but just a obs.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:02 am

Nam seems east but still has similar precip shirld and wind field
Gotta see 3 km but does look like 06z may been a slap.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:03 am

Here she comes

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce28f235e7

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:04 am

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce2ef375ec

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:05 am

not looking as good

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:05 am

Still a nice hit. Precip shield just a bit east

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:05 am

It's stronger too ,960 mb instead of 962 wow the wind is going to be insane verbatim.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:07 am

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce3893d693

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:07 am

Precip actually on wxbell looks nearly identical. I have a 7 pm appt tonight I should be ok right?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:10 am

Frank_Wx wrote:January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce3893d693
dang so close to 06z
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:10 am

From Earthlight - John Homenuk - awesome stuff

Shapiro-Keyser rapid cyclogenesis perfectly aligned with upper level dynamics during maturing cyclone on the HRDPS. Prolific snowfall occurs here regardless of what QPF shows (which still isn’t bad at 0.6” LE)

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 94B9217C-8D8E-4FA7-A994-D8B2CCFDEB69.jpeg.57861f09aa5227842fd3b75dae57b9c8

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/CycloneFrontEvolutionN370.ppt

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:11 am

NAM qpf

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce48f1e8eb

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:12 am

Man does this mean 06z was a blip too far west for NYC? Even long island went down.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:13 am

Ahh guys check out 3km may be holding serve!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM qpf

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5a4ce48f1e8eb

Almost in line with the srefs now. Probably more realistic at this stage.
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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:15 am

Still a nice hit for the area. And most likely more changes to come.

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:17 am

NAM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 Snku_acc.us_ne

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:17 am

Man more changes lol this will be going on now tomorrow that's nuts. No time to get ur milk lol
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:20 am

Wow what a sharp cutoff! Hudson River again CP,LOL.If we get 2 to 4 I'll be happy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:21 am

Hi res NAM

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:21 am

The Hi Res NAM is making me happpppppy

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