January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM coming in now. Already major differences with the southern s/w. So far looks weaker on the 12z NAM run compared to 06z.
Well that would be a kick in the ass, but not totally unexpected either.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
NAM has snow in coastal locations by tonight.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Quietace wrote:NAM has snow in coastal locations by tonight.
Yeah that precip really reaches up the coast
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
NAM will come in east of 06z. H5 has not closed off yet. By this time 06z NAM had closed it off. That being said, precip still looks pretty good
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Looks like the NAM comes due north from hr 20 to 22
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like the NAM comes due north from hr 20 to 22
H5 closed off. Now it will tug NNW
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Those looking at the NAM can tell a Major diff at the surface was the development of a secondary LP east towards the convection. That may have caused surface reflection to jump east initially before adjusting back west when H5 closed off. Still will be a excellent run, but just a obs.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Nam seems east but still has similar precip shirld and wind field
Gotta see 3 km but does look like 06z may been a slap.
Gotta see 3 km but does look like 06z may been a slap.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Here she comes
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
not looking as good
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Still a nice hit. Precip shield just a bit east
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
It's stronger too ,960 mb instead of 962 wow the wind is going to be insane verbatim.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Precip actually on wxbell looks nearly identical. I have a 7 pm appt tonight I should be ok right?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
dang so close to 06zFrank_Wx wrote:
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
From Earthlight - John Homenuk - awesome stuff
Shapiro-Keyser rapid cyclogenesis perfectly aligned with upper level dynamics during maturing cyclone on the HRDPS. Prolific snowfall occurs here regardless of what QPF shows (which still isn’t bad at 0.6” LE)
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/CycloneFrontEvolutionN370.ppt
Shapiro-Keyser rapid cyclogenesis perfectly aligned with upper level dynamics during maturing cyclone on the HRDPS. Prolific snowfall occurs here regardless of what QPF shows (which still isn’t bad at 0.6” LE)
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/CycloneFrontEvolutionN370.ppt
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
NAM qpf
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Man does this mean 06z was a blip too far west for NYC? Even long island went down.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Ahh guys check out 3km may be holding serve!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM qpf
Almost in line with the srefs now. Probably more realistic at this stage.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Still a nice hit for the area. And most likely more changes to come.
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Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Man more changes lol this will be going on now tomorrow that's nuts. No time to get ur milk lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Wow what a sharp cutoff! Hudson River again CP,LOL.If we get 2 to 4 I'll be happy.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Hi res NAM
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
The Hi Res NAM is making me happpppppy
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