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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:42 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:This was the CMC with ratios

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Snku_acc.us_ne

CMC is out to lunch. Low totals and I don't think west of Red Sox Suck is only going to get 4-5 inches, sorry.

Yeah, the CMC has the precip very light up north and it's a little warm with bad ratios out east lol

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:42 pm

HRDPS Hour 41
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Captur19
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:44 pm

0z HRDPS at 10:1

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hrdps_asnow_neus_46

18z

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Hrdps_asnow_neus_48

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:46 pm

Definitely a nicer looking run. UKMET looks like it caved with a close 500 hPa low sitting about 100 miles or so due east of Hatteras.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 pm

00z GEFS

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 5a4c60195245c

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 5a4c60413a15b

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:This was the CMC with ratios

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Snku_acc.us_ne

CMC is out to lunch. Low totals and I don't think west of Red Sox Suck is only going to get 4-5 inches, sorry.

Yeah, the CMC has the precip very light up north and it's a little warm with bad ratios out east lol

It has 2.5 inches on Long island too with ratios. Thats laughable.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 pm

UK is a benchmark track.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:49 pm

00z UK

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 5a4c5feb6c38c_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000(2).gif.b2869db69c072aea412535446fef6839

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:49 pm

tHIS IS ALL MESSING WITH ME BIG TIME LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:50 pm

@rb924119 wrote:UK is a benchmark track.

Doesn't look it. Has like 0.1 for NYC

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:50 pm

What RM said in his tweet is prolly true though "bigly" is NOT a word especially coming from such a educated person LOL
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:50 pm

Yet it somehow manages to graze even the coast. I give up. I'm going to bed ahaha I can't take this abuse anymore tonight.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:UK is a benchmark track.

Doesn't look it. Has like 0.1 for NYC
IM done, thanks for all your hard work guys, Frank I think your either close on pt or from what I am seeing now maybe even too high. But you know wayyyy more than I do so I hope that your possible thought to raise will be true, as of now theres nothing for upton, no wwa wsw so it seems like just another day to me.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:UK is a benchmark track.

Doesn't look it. Has like 0.1 for NYC

I know!!!! But I'm saying the placement of the low was. The precipitation shield looked it was 150 miles east of the benchmark lol Absolutely maddening ahaha However, it is only one of two models so far tonight that has done this, and the fact that it closed H5 off east of Hatteras gives me hope.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:20 am

GEFS are west with a considerable left lean. I read the system, though very strong, will not be loaded with much moisture to work with. I have no clue if that makes ANY sense but maybe that explains WTF we have a BOMB off the coast and can't get any ;!($&@ SNOW!
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:28 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS are west with a considerable left lean. I read the system, though very strong, will not be loaded with much moisture to work with. I have no clue if that makes ANY sense but maybe that explains WTF we have a BOMB off the coast and can't get any ;!($&@ SNOW!

Then why are high res models such as Nam 3k and RGEM Hi Res showing sginificantly more precip? I really don't think anybody really knows how this is going to turn out.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:36 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS are west with a considerable left lean. I read the system, though very strong, will not be loaded with much moisture to work with. I have no clue if that makes ANY sense but maybe that explains WTF we have a BOMB off the coast and can't get any ;!($&@ SNOW!

Then why are high res models such as Nam 3k and RGEM Hi Res showing sginificantly more precip? I really don't think anybody really knows how this is going to turn out.

Not sure if you know who J Manetta is but he knows his stuff. Here is one reason:

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 E113f610

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:43 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS are west with a considerable left lean. I read the system, though very strong, will not be loaded with much moisture to work with. I have no clue if that makes ANY sense but maybe that explains WTF we have a BOMB off the coast and can't get any ;!($&@ SNOW!

Then why are high res models such as Nam 3k and RGEM Hi Res showing sginificantly more precip? I really don't think anybody really knows how this is going to turn out.

Not sure if you know who J Manetta is but he knows his stuff. Here is one reason:

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 E113f610

Crap. So the high-res are likely over-amped?
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:52 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:GEFS are west with a considerable left lean. I read the system, though very strong, will not be loaded with much moisture to work with. I have no clue if that makes ANY sense but maybe that explains WTF we have a BOMB off the coast and can't get any ;!($&@ SNOW!

Then why are high res models such as Nam 3k and RGEM Hi Res showing sginificantly more precip? I really don't think anybody really knows how this is going to turn out.

Not sure if you know who J Manetta is but he knows his stuff. Here is one reason:

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 E113f610

I don't know who J. Manetta is but thanks for the info. It will be very interesting to see how this evolves and which models do well.
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:10 am

I don't understand what's so difficult about this? NYC is getting light snow while points eastward get a bit heavier snow while eastern New England gets the heaviest snow. Next.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:14 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I don't understand what's so difficult about this?  NYC is getting light snow while points eastward get a bit heavier snow while eastern New England gets the heaviest snow.  Next.

It's not that simple. Some hi-res models were showing more of a moderate event locally and it's still yet to be determined.
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Post by mmanisca Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:15 am

Euro gives western Suffolk 3 inches. Just too Far East no matter how you cut it
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Post by mmanisca Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:17 am

Been thinking 3-6 here in Deer Park all along. Still reluctant to think anymore. What a bummer.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:39 am

Ryan Maue:

"So, maybe this Nor'easter will bury somebody after all in snowfall. We'll see what the EPS ensembles say about the "precip shield" westward shift -- and if it will keep shifting west. The bust-o-matic dial is starting to fidget."
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:20 am

GEFS actually looked really good for the area; better than the Op. Mean for all of NJ was 6"+ with ratios, and it had som bigger hitters back the mix. Good sign.

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