Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:21 pm

Everything looks really good.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:29 pm

The only way we're going to get a handle with this storm is of course radar, but also current low placement maps. From the looks of the current radar, its very NAM like.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Hot

You know how much heat that's releasing???? Also interesting is note how the deepest convection is immediately along the coast. This should continue as the system pivots and continues to induce pressure falls and convergence from there northward. This should induce further feedback as the convection continues to be focused there, and with all of the heat release continuing to occur from the persistent convection there should further enhance thermal expansion and low-level pressure falls.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:30 pm

Precip is much further west than models have shown in the SE - GREAT SIGN!!!!!!!!

Mesoscale and SR models are going to win this and the NAM maybe the new king of these storm IF it can verify!

Laughing

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:31 pm

Everyone should review this graphic, courtesy of one of the best METS I've seen: @crankyweatherguy

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 9e451f10

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 9e451f10

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:37 pm

amugs wrote:Precip is much further west than models have shown in the SE - GREAT SIGN!!!!!!!!

Mesoscale and SR models are going to win this and the NAM maybe the new king of these storm IF it can verify!

Why do I have that feeling NWS and Mt. Holly are going to be chasing ever increasing snow totals. That has the look of a classic benchmark track. I'm all in now.

by **Math23x7** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:40 pm

My updated probabilities for NYC:

Mothrazilla: 65%
Godzilla: 15%
Roidzilla: 0.1% (same as last time)
Frankzilla: Same as last time, almost zero

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:45 pm

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Codnex10

Trough going negative folks.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:52 pm

HREF (the hi-res SREFs)

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Qpf_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.9cb906b43d4df37f56c2ad488d6f47d6

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:54 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:HREF (the hi-res SREFs)

That cutoff is geographically hysterical lol

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:54 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Trough going negative folks.

Does this help the storm track up the coast?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote:My updated probabilities for NYC:

Mothrazilla: 65%
Godzilla: 15%
Roidzilla: 0.1% (same as last time)
Frankzilla: Same as last time, almost zero

This is the most important post of the day for me. When Mike who usually takes the most cautious approach possible, gives a 65% chance of 6-12 in NYC now we’re in business.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:HREF (the hi-res SREFs)

Not loving that. A little east of where it was this morning.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:59 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Trough going negative folks.

Does this help the storm track up the coast?

Yes

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:00 pm

The blue is knocking on my door, but it is still a solid 3-6.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:01 pm

Check out the precip blossoming off the Carolina coast. Anyone wanna take a guess where the front is...

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Ma3comp13

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Ma3comp13

by Carter bk Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:07 pm

In the right location for nyc lol

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:07 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I don't understand what's so difficult about this? NYC is getting light snow while points eastward get a bit heavier snow while eastern New England gets the heaviest snow. Next.

But but but...just messing with you Mikey

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:10 pm

SREFS shifted east a bit

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 SREFNE24Precip15036

Consensus building. Will be a blend between globals and hi-res models

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Check out the precip blossoming off the Carolina coast. Anyone wanna take a guess where the front is...

But can the front be strong enough to push the storm east? Is this what is being missed?

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS shifted east a bit

Consensus building. Will be a blend between globals and hi-res models

Is it truly a shift or just a tightening of the precip gradient since we're getting close and consensus is getting better within the ensemble?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:15 pm

It is a tightening of the gradient.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:18 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Check out the precip blossoming off the Carolina coast. Anyone wanna take a guess where the front is...

But can the front be strong enough to push the storm east? Is this what is being missed?

Would answer you but the link I have to access real-time observations is old. Anyone have the NOAA link where these are now posted?

Anyway, I think the front will actually help the low stay closer to the coast in this case. The easterly fetch will enhance precip along the coast and the low will likely take a track where the convection develops. It's a battle

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:20 pm

Here is the coastal front

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Sfnt

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:23 pm

Any chance left for me Frank?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:24 pm

mikeypizano wrote:Any chance left for me Frank?

You may get a couple inches

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:27 pm

I when do you guys think the winter storm watch will go into a winter storm warning for this city

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