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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:31 pm

PSU WRF
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Rt_d1_dbz_23
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Rt_d1_rain_32

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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:33 pm

Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:33 pm

For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.

Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Img_1416

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:41 pm

@emokid51783 wrote:Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?

Negative tilt vs neutral vs positive tilt.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Febe4910
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 8502f210
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 2f1efc10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.

Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Img_1416
I'd be screaming and crying if I was back in Binghamton right now. That would remind be of the Jan 2016 blizzard that I had to leave to go back to Bing the day before and it was sunny in Bing while at home, they got crushed lol


Last edited by aiannone on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm

Sorry neutral and positive examples are reversed

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Carter bk Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm

Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm

@Carter bk wrote:Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet

Cause I am not forecasting one

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm

Hey Emo, you think Jersey city will get a crush job?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Hrdps_qpf_nyc_49.png.6ec569515e4ae7d53e775a0d0c4f2a1c.thumb.png.3cbd2a44c2fc79ea398505836d761763

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:46 pm

Last few frames of hi-res WV imagery show that we are really backing our flow on the downstream side of our trough now. In other words, it's beginning to ball up at the mid-levels and change the steering flow now to more of a SSE flow rather than S. Watch the explosion of precip over the next few hours lol gonna be AWESOME!!!

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:47 pm

Right now the only place I see this being a Godzilla is MAYBE the eastern edge of Long Island. This seems to me to be a solid 6-12" Mothrazilla for most of the area with the back end of the 6" along I-287 and the NJ Turnpike and increasing as you go east to 12" on LI. West of that in NJ is probably 3-6" and PA 1-2".
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:51 pm

18z NAM is nuking the western Atlantic though 9 ahahaha

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:53 pm

Just looking at thickness contours I think this may bring back whispers 06z runs lol way more amped with the trough, much more negative and tucked in low.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 pm

Well, if the 12k can correct its precip shield, it shifted the low an easy 200 miles west ahaha omg lol

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 pm

the 18z nam is 10mb stronger than 12z at hour 9. 10pm tonight
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Closes H5 off east of SC. That's why aha

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:58 pm

18z NAM seems to be underdoing the precipitation field through 9 compared to what I'm actually seeing on radar right now.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:00 pm

HOT DAMN NAM!
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:01 pm

This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:04 pm

The differences with the jet are unreal. Verbatim, it should be snowing all the way back to I-81 and accumulating. Shifted the jet axis 200 miles west. You can see it tries to correct a couple frames of the QPF and then loses it; that to me should be real looking at the upper levels.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:05 pm

18z NAM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 5a4d378a8800d

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:06 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI

Yeah, doesn't quite make it into NYC. Thought it would

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

NAM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 15 Snku_acc.us_ne

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