January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
mikeypizano wrote:Any chance left for me Frank?
You may get a couple inches
Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
I when do you guys think the winter storm watch will go into a winter storm warning for this city
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?
emokid51783- Posts : 144
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.
Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.
Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
emokid51783 wrote:Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?
Negative tilt vs neutral vs positive tilt.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
I'd be screaming and crying if I was back in Binghamton right now. That would remind be of the Jan 2016 blizzard that I had to leave to go back to Bing the day before and it was sunny in Bing while at home, they got crushed lolrb924119 wrote:For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.
Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.
Last edited by aiannone on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Sorry neutral and positive examples are reversed
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Carter bk wrote:Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet
Cause I am not forecasting one
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Hey Emo, you think Jersey city will get a crush job?
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Last few frames of hi-res WV imagery show that we are really backing our flow on the downstream side of our trough now. In other words, it's beginning to ball up at the mid-levels and change the steering flow now to more of a SSE flow rather than S. Watch the explosion of precip over the next few hours lol gonna be AWESOME!!!
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Right now the only place I see this being a Godzilla is MAYBE the eastern edge of Long Island. This seems to me to be a solid 6-12" Mothrazilla for most of the area with the back end of the 6" along I-287 and the NJ Turnpike and increasing as you go east to 12" on LI. West of that in NJ is probably 3-6" and PA 1-2".
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
18z NAM is nuking the western Atlantic though 9 ahahaha
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Just looking at thickness contours I think this may bring back whispers 06z runs lol way more amped with the trough, much more negative and tucked in low.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Well, if the 12k can correct its precip shield, it shifted the low an easy 200 miles west ahaha omg lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
the 18z nam is 10mb stronger than 12z at hour 9. 10pm tonight
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Closes H5 off east of SC. That's why aha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
18z NAM seems to be underdoing the precipitation field through 9 compared to what I'm actually seeing on radar right now.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
This run will 12"+ NYC south and east
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
The differences with the jet are unreal. Verbatim, it should be snowing all the way back to I-81 and accumulating. Shifted the jet axis 200 miles west. You can see it tries to correct a couple frames of the QPF and then loses it; that to me should be real looking at the upper levels.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
18z NAM
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east
To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east
To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI
Yeah, doesn't quite make it into NYC. Thought it would
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