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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by UnionWX Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:31 pm

WWA up here. 2-4" with wind gusts up to 40 mph.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:32 pm

Rgem still not budging. Looks like 12z. Fact NAM does not have any model in it's camp kinda sucks. But we're close enough to the storm that we should be able to make a forecast putting less emphasis on models

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:39 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:NYC and my area are forecast by nws gusts to 45 blizzard criteria is 35 mph. It's just logistics but I love the wind part of snow too so I hope it's extended I to NYC and the burbs which I am pretty much in
But usually they do us last.
That is incorrect. It is sustained winds to 35....You need sustained visibility under criteria, and sustained winds over the criteria.
oh your so very right my bad it is sustained duh. It's go have shift bit more to get that then. Well whatever it will be whiteout like at times.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Rgem still not budging. Looks like 12z. Fact NAM does not have any model in it's camp kinda sucks. But we're close enough to the storm that we should be able to make a forecast putting less emphasis on models


thanks frank..i just finished reading the last 5 pages I missed while I was out...lol...looking forward to your update later...are you considering a chat or will continue this way?
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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:40 pm

GFS finally caved.

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:41 pm

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Gfs_apcpn_neus_5

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:45 pm

Gfs is great for long island CT and east congrats this ur storm. 6 in with ratios nothing write home about I just hope school stays open it's not that serious here.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:46 pm

GFS

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Snku_acc.us_ne

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:47 pm

@Quietace wrote:January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Gfs_apcpn_neus_5
strange qpf is .5 to .75 for me but kutchera map she's 5 to 6. That's 10:1 or less
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:47 pm

NWS Upton:
If the storm tracks a bit more west, then blizzard
conditions may be seen into parts of coastal CT as well as
Nassau County. Traveling in Suffolk County will be impossible
especially at the height of the storm on Thursday in the late
morning and afternoon.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:48 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:GFS

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Snku_acc.us_ne
wow weatherbell is way off from this. Wxbell has 23 for north shore of li.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:54 pm

The GFS dry NW BIAS at play - it doesn not know what the hell to do with all this cyclogensis and latent heat so it warm sup the colun and dries out the NW flank WTH??????

@Frank - lest recall that this is a massive latent diabolic heat release that just goes bonkers from OBX to the BM - the convective models like the Hi RES NAM, HI RES RGEM were the 1st to pick up on this westward shift and not jump out to or chase teh convection. I am not trying to make it seem slanted but stating facts from my learned knowledge. RGEM and Canadian models GEM LAM have issues with this at times especially with latent heat release systems.
So that being said we are still looking at a quite a storm and most board members here will see tehir fair share of white gold.
An arm pit hair away peeps - IF we can get one more run about 30 miles shifted W then da crusher gets pulled out by me!!
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 IMG_0796.thumb.PNG.8966f403db8c42b96ba09266c490eb7c

12z to 18z from USA site

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Gfs_apcpn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.a719c1e94154c03d488d41ccd4f26e40

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:01 pm

250 jet steak - this will allow a wetsward expansion of snow.
also the map above shows its dry bias in just 6 hours places went from .5 to 1" and 1,5 that woudl be great but possibly disastrous for some up here.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Gfs_uv250_us_4

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:04 pm

Jman gfs for you is 7-9" verbatim

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:05 pm

Upton NICE!!!!!!!

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
So far this winter we`ve had intense cold. However for this
winter to really rank up there for an overall memorable winter
known for cold and snow in these parts such as 1977-1978,
1993-1994 or 1995-1996, it needs to deliver with the snow. This
looks about to change.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:06 pm

@amugs wrote:The GFS dry NW BIAS at play - it doesn not know what the hell to do with all this cyclogensis and latent heat so it warm sup the colun and dries out the NW flank WTH??????

@Frank - lest recall that this is a massive latent diabolic heat release that just goes bonkers from OBX to the BM - the convective models like the Hi RES NAM, HI RES RGEM were the 1st to pick up on this westward shift and not jump out to or chase teh convection. I am not trying to make it seem slanted but stating facts from my learned knowledge. RGEM and Canadian models GEM LAM have issues with this at times especially with latent heat release systems.
So that being said we are still looking at a quite a storm and most board members here will see tehir fair share of white gold.
An arm pit hair away peeps - IF we can get one more run about 30 miles shifted W then da crusher gets pulled out by me!!
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 IMG_0796.thumb.PNG.8966f403db8c42b96ba09266c490eb7c

12z to 18z from USA site

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 18 Gfs_apcpn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.a719c1e94154c03d488d41ccd4f26e40


The GFS is proving once again that it is a POS.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:07 pm


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