NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

+63
Fededle22
NettWx
yorkseer
SENJsnowman
crippo84
abayoumi21
energy1276
SkiSeadooJoe
sroc4
essexcountypete
Mathgod55
track17
dkodgis
oldtimer
clownloach
larryrock72
heehaw453
Vinnydula
brownie
Smarnold
MattyICE
Dunnzoo
algae888
bloc1357
mmanisca
docstox12
goalscore
Roger92
Smitty623
NjWeatherGuy
2004blackwrx
Taffy
SoulSingMG
Dtone
Math23x7
CPcantmeasuresnow
dsix85
emokid51783
Snow88
Joe Snow
Quietace
skinsfan1177
mwilli5783
Nyi1058
lglickman1
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
aiannone
weatherwatchermom
Sanchize06
jimv45
rb924119
Artechmetals
GreyBeard
amugs
billg315
RJB8525
Scullybutcher
Carter bk
hyde345
frank 638
mikeypizano
Frank_Wx
67 posters

Page 6 of 32 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 19 ... 32  Next

Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:19 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 26231910
How pretty lol

aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:20 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Nam3km_ref_frzn_eus_fh16_trend.gif.649ccc49b2ab94d5e9f32ca344c602a5

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Snowing already in Cape May
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:25 pm

Theirs Definetly initialization error on nam
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:26 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Theirs Definetly initialization error on nam

Agree. Throw out models at this point.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:27 pm

Just checking out the radar from Delaware and heavy bands coming into Delmarva. Of course interestingly it’s raining in Ocean City Md.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:28 pm

Where will she go? Down to 994mb.

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Pmsl

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:30 pm

Are there obvious clues based in current maps that this system is tracking west of what all models were showing?

lglickman1
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 319
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:31 pm

Radar is on western ensambles....

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:33 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Are there obvious clues based in current maps that this system is tracking west of what all models were showing?

Faborable jet and precip further west than models

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:35 pm

Frank. Do you anticipate any mixing issues if it continues on a more westerly track for Long Island?

dsix85
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 349
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:38 pm

Frank u still don't buy the 3 km nam wind gusts seem pretty in line with nws but push near 60 mph back to me and even west of NYC. And last even after snow. I prolly already know ur answer but this bombing out to sub 950 possibly send high rates of snow I can't see why not. Nws also has Nantucket at 75 moh


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:38 pm

We need the jetstream to be like lundqvist.

Block it left!!

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

No blocking if I heard correctly.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

Mean steering flow has now backed from the southeast ahead of, and where our system currently is. This should manifest itself as a continued northward, to even north-northwesterly motion of our mid-level system. Key is to follow H7, as look 200-300 miles west, northwest, and even north of wherever the H7 low goes for the best banding. Jet looks to be responding very well, and should continue to build further northwest with this mean flow, thus further enhancing the western periphery of precip and drawing our system northward versus east or northeastward. That is all, now back to bed. Happy tracking!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

IS THE HI RES NAM REALLY SHOWING A 947 mb LP ON THE BM? That should be devastating?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

The radar is filling in so nice now! Will the friggen NAM verify again??

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:47 pm

This looks like the type of storm where Brooklyn/ Queens might do better than Bronx/ Manhattan due to BK and Queens being further east.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z nam

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 5a4d8ea1259f1
wow that cuts me in half by past models not buying it look at real time. If we don't get a lot NYC gov. Go b pissed he closed schools so early on.

Don’t like the trends since this morning with the precip seems to keep going East. Stupid deblasio canceling NYC schools the KOD. HE did this one other storm ahead of time and ruined the whole storm. He’s just a giant dumb Albatross.

Time to trust my eyes and not the models because I don’t like what they’re saying.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:53 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z nam

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 5a4d8ea1259f1
wow that cuts me in half by past models not buying it look at real time. If we don't get a lot NYC gov. Go b pissed he closed schools so early on.

Don’t like the trends since this morning with the precip seems to keep going East. Stupid deblasio canceling NYC schools the KOD. HE did this one other storm ahead of time and ruined the whole storm. He’s just a giant dumb Albatross.

Time to trust my eyes and not the models because I don’t like what they’re saying.

I told people at work that there tends to be an inverse correlation between snow totals and whether NYC public schools close. Later this evening when the decision was made, I was like "Up, there goes the big snow" Mad

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:56 pm

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/948748602947657728

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:02 pm

Radar is again much.more west than.any model had.
Lp is west as well by a few ticks.
Need it's not to go to sub 960 why, it wil somewhat compact it's western flank.
To strong isn't necessarily good for the majority this forum members.
Okay off to bed, schools making the calls to close already up here.
I hope to wake up to.many inches of white gold.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:06 pm

amugs wrote:https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/948748602947657728

This guy followed it up showing high bust potential:

The location of the banding is still uncertain, and is sensitive to slight west/east shifts in the track & forcing for ascent. But high bust potential for NJ & NYC with this - won't take much to change the forecast to 1-3".

Why didnt you post that?

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Joe Snow Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:08 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 1-4-1810

Current Radar
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 924
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 62
Location : Sanford Florida, Fmrly Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:08 pm

Guys stop. Look at the radar. We are all looking like we’re gonna get it good. I hope my n and buddy’s can get into the action too

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:15 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Joe Snow Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:21 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 1-4-8_12

Precp field filling in nicely
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 924
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 62
Location : Sanford Florida, Fmrly Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Empty Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 32 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 19 ... 32  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum