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January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Snowing already in Cape May
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:25 pm

Theirs Definetly initialization error on nam
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:26 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Theirs Definetly initialization error on nam

Agree. Throw out models at this point.

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:27 pm

Just checking out the radar from Delaware and heavy bands coming into Delmarva. Of course interestingly it’s raining in Ocean City Md.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:28 pm

Where will she go? Down to 994mb.

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Pmsl

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:30 pm

Are there obvious clues based in current maps that this system is tracking west of what all models were showing?

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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:31 pm

Radar is on western ensambles....

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:33 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Are there obvious clues based in current maps that this system is tracking west of what all models were showing?

Faborable jet and precip further west than models

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:35 pm

Frank. Do you anticipate any mixing issues if it continues on a more westerly track for Long Island?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:38 pm

Frank u still don't buy the 3 km nam wind gusts seem pretty in line with nws but push near 60 mph back to me and even west of NYC. And last even after snow. I prolly already know ur answer but this bombing out to sub 950 possibly send high rates of snow I can't see why not. Nws also has Nantucket at 75 moh


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:38 pm

We need the jetstream to be like lundqvist.

Block it left!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

No blocking if I heard correctly.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

Mean steering flow has now backed from the southeast ahead of, and where our system currently is. This should manifest itself as a continued northward, to even north-northwesterly motion of our mid-level system. Key is to follow H7, as look 200-300 miles west, northwest, and even north of wherever the H7 low goes for the best banding. Jet looks to be responding very well, and should continue to build further northwest with this mean flow, thus further enhancing the western periphery of precip and drawing our system northward versus east or northeastward. That is all, now back to bed. Happy tracking!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

IS THE HI RES NAM REALLY SHOWING A 947 mb LP ON THE BM? That should be devastating?

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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm

The radar is filling in so nice now! Will the friggen NAM verify again??

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:47 pm

This looks like the type of storm where Brooklyn/ Queens might do better than Bronx/ Manhattan due to BK and Queens being further east.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:00z nam

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 5a4d8ea1259f1
wow that cuts me in half by past models not buying it look at real time. If we don't get a lot NYC gov. Go b pissed he closed schools so early on.

Don’t like the trends since this morning with the precip seems to keep going East. Stupid deblasio canceling NYC schools the KOD. HE did this one other storm ahead of time and ruined the whole storm. He’s just a giant dumb Albatross.

Time to trust my eyes and not the models because I don’t like what they’re saying.
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:53 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:00z nam

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 5a4d8ea1259f1
wow that cuts me in half by past models not buying it look at real time. If we don't get a lot NYC gov. Go b pissed he closed schools so early on.

Don’t like the trends since this morning with the precip seems to keep going East. Stupid deblasio canceling NYC schools the KOD. HE did this one other storm ahead of time and ruined the whole storm. He’s just a giant dumb Albatross.

Time to trust my eyes and not the models because I don’t like what they’re saying.

I told people at work that there tends to be an inverse correlation between snow totals and whether NYC public schools close. Later this evening when the decision was made, I was like "Up, there goes the big snow" Mad

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:56 pm

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/948748602947657728

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:02 pm

Radar is again much.more west than.any model had.
Lp is west as well by a few ticks.
Need it's not to go to sub 960 why, it wil somewhat compact it's western flank.
To strong isn't necessarily good for the majority this forum members.
Okay off to bed, schools making the calls to close already up here.
I hope to wake up to.many inches of white gold.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:06 pm

@amugs wrote:https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/948748602947657728

This guy followed it up showing high bust potential:

The location of the banding is still uncertain, and is sensitive to slight west/east shifts in the track & forcing for ascent. But high bust potential for NJ & NYC with this - won't take much to change the forecast to 1-3".

Why didnt you post that?

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Post by Joe Snow Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:08 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 1-4-1810

Current Radar
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:08 pm

Guys stop. Look at the radar. We are all looking like we’re gonna get it good. I hope my n and buddy’s can get into the action too

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:15 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Joe Snow Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:21 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 6 1-4-8_12

Precp field filling in nicely
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