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January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 pm

Yea 3-6 hyde, not that far from better or for worse too!!!

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Post by Artechmetals Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 pm

Lonnie just said track still up in the air
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:29 pm

The precip is getting pretty far west into Virginia, much more than the models had, even the NAM

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:30 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

RB whats your thought about all the dry air in place in the HV? Is that going to be an issue for us?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:32 pm

The only thing missing from tonight is the rapid fire chat...love those...

Hey what is going on with the recon planes..did they go out today?
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

Jeez. I guess we have to be careful what we wish for. Too far of a track west and LI will sleet lol
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:41 pm

All NYC schools are closed tomorrow. Announced a few seconds ago
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:43 pm

Hey hey hey, when I said I wanted a truck load of snow this is not what I meant!!!!

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 2 Img_9810
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:45 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

RB whats your thought about all the dry air in place in the HV? Is that going to be an issue for us?

Dew points are definitely low, so it's gonna take a fair amount of time to saturate the column. That said, with such a backing flow regime coming off the Atlantic the mid- and lower-levels should steadily saturate as it approaches. The wind direction right now is important; note how it's from the east-south quadrant, and not from the northeast-west third. That's good because that means we aren't having the really cold, dry air drain into our region from New England and Canada.....yet. Not until the low begins getting closer to our latitude.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:45 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.
There's been some chatter over at the other board why the GFS suddenly makes a ENE jog when the low approaches our latitude. With an already negative trough, that would argue for a more northerly trek closer to the coast. On another note, Lee Goldberg mentioned earlier that the snow shield is more west then what the models show. 0z runs will be telling tonight!
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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:46 pm

yes Hyde that dry air plus a arctic front Albany talked about could be a problem  for us, but I still like right now 3-6 for us.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:48 pm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 2 Inxr1kdova_h

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:51 pm

I have to say, after reading Ray's post I took a look at the satellite/radar and it sure does look like the low center is tracking inside of Hatteras.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:53 pm

Last night I noted how close the low center was to Hatteras on a couple of models, but it was still offshore -- not west of Hatteras.  It's interesting that everything real-time today, radar, satellite, pressure centers seems slightly west of where it was on the models.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

So wait, if the low tracks west of Hatteras, does that mean I am likely to jackpot?
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

No big deal, even the NAM is only about 300 miles too far southeast with its progged jet for 00z. Meh, that won't change the forecast at all ahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm

Wow a call on NYC schools before morning wow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm

@billg315 wrote:Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol

In my write up I said 1 to 3 am from south to north. May start as virga

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:58 pm

@rb924119 wrote:No big deal, even the NAM is only about 300 miles too far southeast with its progged jet for 00z. Meh, that won't change the forecast at all ahaha

lol. so true. and I was being kind to the models when I said "slightly" west of the models
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:58 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.
There's been some chatter over at the other board why the GFS suddenly makes a ENE jog when the low approaches our latitude. With an already negative trough, that would argue for a more northerly trek closer to the coast. On another note, Lee Goldberg mentioned earlier that the snow shield is more west then what the models show. 0z runs will be telling tonight!

Agree!! The closing off of H5 alone argues against that, but even if it does, the precip shield should not be negatively impacted. Throw in what our current jet looks like and I'm just slightly inclined to say that jump doesn't make sense, and the precip should be healthier than modeled further to the west.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:00 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:So wait, if the low tracks west of Hatteras, does that mean I am likely to jackpot?

*IF* it does, you might not technically jackpot, but you'd likely more than double your 2-4" forecast from the NWS lol

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol

In my write up I said 1 to 3 am from south to north. May start as virga

Yeah, it definitely would still be on target with what you said in your write-up. I was thinking more of where the models and other forecasters had this thing projected earlier today. It seems accelerated from those projections.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:02 pm

Hmmmmmmm

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:04 pm

Hmmmm good or hmmmm bad?

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