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January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:42 pm

About 7 -7.5" here hard to measure.
Can't see how Montvale got 4" and 2 towns south got 6-7" and Ridgewood 3" wth???
Track I concur how does wildwood have 6" and cape may courthouse 8 mile North have 16" .

Anyway winds are cranking here big time and lots of school called 90 minute delays already. Smart move

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Post by NettWx Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:45 pm

School is closed for me tomorrow. Looks like syo you were right on the 50/50 for closing... Long weekend for me!

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:55 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@billg315 wrote:I just shoveled. We had about 5.5" here and it was a dry snow as it was about 22 degrees through most of the storm, but I have to tell you, it was still heavy. It was while shoveling that I remembered there are, minor, benefits to being in the more moderate zone of the storm. Still good snows, but less shoveling.

My goal is to get 8 inches, which means I do maximum customers but not have th extra work from anything more.

What's your final total mikey? I have co-workers out your way so I'm just curious.

I didn't measure but around 1.5"
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Post by snowday111 Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:18 pm

Lots of school in Middlesex and Monmouth counties are already closed for tomorrow.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:24 pm

@snowday111 wrote:Lots of school in Middlesex and Monmouth counties are already closed for tomorrow.

my town is going with 90 minute delay, Warren county
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:40 pm

Yonkers, NY schools closed, this will put me inside other than a few min out today for over 72 hrs by sat morning. I am not used to being Mr. Mom, I do not like feeling stranded worst is I had no preparation for food and wife has forbid me to go out with daughter, understandable but still.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:08 pm

school closed here!! I am excited to hibernate for the weekend!! Not going anywhere until Monday!! I have several books I want to read.... Smile
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Post by King-Ubas Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:15 pm

Delayed opening in Vernon as well. Just ventured out a bit......roads still very poor, and wind blowing the snow that we got right back on them

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:18 pm

Wow highest gust on updated snow totals and gusts, wow

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Post by Joe Snow Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow highest gust on updated snow totals and gusts, wow

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A lot of Ham Radio Operators like me have weather stations. Love it
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:58 pm

Delayed opening for a majoroty of a hooks in Bergen County. Talked to my Boyz snow crew from school, winds are brutal roads and lots covered again. Maybe tough gettind lots and always cleared with the conditions.

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Post by Radz Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:00 pm

What a great storm this turned out to be, algae, mugs, and others kept the faith regardless of the model mayhem and brought it to fruition! Never say never! Combination of heavy snow and wind gusts was really amazing here in northern westchester- quite enjoyable! Can't wait for the next!
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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow highest gust on updated snow totals and gusts, wow

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I heard on the weather channel that some place in Rhode Island reported an 87 MPH gust.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:18 pm

I was in my office in Midtown today (since I now live in Manhattan, a subway ride is smooth).  During that time, we got the heavy snow band.  This was as of 11:42 AM.  As Frank would say: Madonne!

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Where the hell is that heatmiser Math and WHERE IS GODZILLA

I was in the office in Midtown for a good chunk of the day. Pretty good storm I must say Wink

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:28 am

A fantastic job by RB, Mugs, Al and Sroc even chiming in from Hawaii, now that's a dedicated weather nut, and of course our fearless leader Frank.

Also of note to me anyway with some good insights during the week leading up to this were Nutley, Mattyice, Snow88, Billg and a few others I'm sure I'm forgetting.

A special thank you to Math23x7 for actually going into Central Park and keeping the Conservancy on their toes. The message was clear, "we are as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

Another takeaway from this storm is the obsession some on here seem to have with Beantown and a certain malady identified by Taffy as Beanis envy. Just because several runs show the brunt of a storm hitting a certain area doesn't make it so. As I always say look at the final results not the forecast or clown maps as if they already happened. Most of our area from NYC and the Jersey shore on east had similar or in many cases better results than Beantown, and Cape Cod rained for most of  the storm. In the end being where you are is often times better than where you think you want to be.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:46 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A fantastic job by RB, Mugs, Al and Sroc even chiming in from Hawaii, now that's a dedicated weather nut, and of course our fearless leader Frank.

Also of note to me anyway with some good insights during the week leading up to this were Nutley, Mattyice, Snow88, Billg and a few others I'm sure I'm forgetting.

A special thank you to Math23x7 for actually going into Central Park and keeping the Conservancy on their toes. The message was clear, "we are as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

Another takeaway from this storm is the obsession some on here seem to have with Beantown and a certain malady identified by Taffy as Beanis envy. Just because several runs show the brunt of a storm hitting a certain area doesn't make it so. As I always say look at the final results not the forecast or clown maps as if they already happened. Most of our area from NYC and the Jersey shore on east had similar or in many cases better results than Beantown, and Cape Cod rained for most of  the storm. In the end being where you are is often times better than where you think you want to be.

I would also like to give the highest praise to QuiteAce (Ryan) His analysis was spot on throughout as well. He IMO is right up there with the rest. Seriously Ryan I can see a huge difference this year in your level of knowledge. Your schooling is paying off and I have no doubt you are going to be , already are, a great meteorologist. Well done.


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:09 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:03 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A fantastic job by RB, Mugs, Al and Sroc even chiming in from Hawaii, now that's a dedicated weather nut, and of course our fearless leader Frank.

Also of note to me anyway with some good insights during the week leading up to this were Nutley, Mattyice, Snow88, Billg and a few others I'm sure I'm forgetting.

A special thank you to Math23x7 for actually going into Central Park and keeping the Conservancy on their toes. The message was clear, "we are as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

Another takeaway from this storm is the obsession some on here seem to have with Beantown and a certain malady identified by Taffy as Beanis envy. Just because several runs show the brunt of a storm hitting a certain area doesn't make it so. As I always say look at the final results not the forecast or clown maps as if they already happened. Most of our area from NYC and the Jersey shore on east had similar or in many cases better results than Beantown, and Cape Cod rained for most of  the storm. In the end being where you are is often times better than where you think you want to be.

I would also like to give the highest praise to QuiteAce (Ryan) His analysis was spot on throughout as well. He IMO is right up there with the rest. Seriously Ryan I can see a huge difference this year in your level of knowledge. Your schooling is paying off and I have no doubt you are going to be , already, are a great meteorologist. Well done.

When I posted this I said to myself I'm missing someone major here, but posted anyway and of course as you pointed out it was Ryan. This is a good example to all to never post anything until the second cup of coffee.
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A fantastic job by RB, Mugs, Al and Sroc even chiming in from Hawaii, now that's a dedicated weather nut, and of course our fearless leader Frank.

Also of note to me anyway with some good insights during the week leading up to this were Nutley, Mattyice, Snow88, Billg and a few others I'm sure I'm forgetting.

A special thank you to Math23x7 for actually going into Central Park and keeping the Conservancy on their toes. The message was clear, "we are as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

Another takeaway from this storm is the obsession some on here seem to have with Beantown and a certain malady identified by Taffy as Beanis envy. Just because several runs show the brunt of a storm hitting a certain area doesn't make it so. As I always say look at the final results not the forecast or clown maps as if they already happened. Most of our area from NYC and the Jersey shore on east had similar or in many cases better results than Beantown, and Cape Cod rained for most of  the storm. In the end being where you are is often times better than where you think you want to be.

I would also like to give the highest praise to QuiteAce (Ryan) His analysis was spot on throughout as well. He IMO is right up there with the rest. Seriously Ryan I can see a huge difference this year in your level of knowledge. Your schooling is paying off and I have no doubt you are going to be , already are, a great meteorologist. Well done.
Scott, I really appreciate the kind words. I wish I could be on more like I was in the past, however schoolwork and research take up a majority of my time during the semesters. I was just lucky I was in bed sick all week to track lol!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:23 am

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A fantastic job by RB, Mugs, Al and Sroc even chiming in from Hawaii, now that's a dedicated weather nut, and of course our fearless leader Frank.

Also of note to me anyway with some good insights during the week leading up to this were Nutley, Mattyice, Snow88, Billg and a few others I'm sure I'm forgetting.

A special thank you to Math23x7 for actually going into Central Park and keeping the Conservancy on their toes. The message was clear, "we are as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

Another takeaway from this storm is the obsession some on here seem to have with Beantown and a certain malady identified by Taffy as Beanis envy. Just because several runs show the brunt of a storm hitting a certain area doesn't make it so. As I always say look at the final results not the forecast or clown maps as if they already happened. Most of our area from NYC and the Jersey shore on east had similar or in many cases better results than Beantown, and Cape Cod rained for most of  the storm. In the end being where you are is often times better than where you think you want to be.

I would also like to give the highest praise to QuiteAce (Ryan) His analysis was spot on throughout as well. He IMO is right up there with the rest. Seriously Ryan I can see a huge difference this year in your level of knowledge. Your schooling is paying off and I have no doubt you are going to be , already are, a great meteorologist. Well done.
Scott, I really appreciate the kind words. I wish I could be on more like I was in the past, however schoolwork and research take up a majority of my time during the semesters. I was just lucky I was in bed sick all week to track lol!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:25 am

Only fitting way to close out this thread with a satellite image of the storm as it’s bombing out. Look at that moisture fetch. Such an impressive system.

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 32 E2517b10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:28 am

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 32 Final_call

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 32 Ruc_snow_precip_24hr_2018010505_Northeast

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations  - Page 32 Ruc_snow_precip_24hr_2018010505_Eastern_Coastal

Yesterday's borderline Godzilla was one of the most difficult storms I've had to forecast. Meteorologists are told to use models as guidance and not gospel. They never tell the full story or lead you to making the most accurate forecast. Weather constantly changes, storms have mind of their owns, and models are not equipped to handle it all.

Reviewing actual storm totals vs. my snow map I would say the precipitation shield definitely expanded further west than I imagined. Note the maps above is not snow in inches. It is the liquid equivalent. The storm did NOT track further west than I thought. I created my snow map assuming the hi-res models were correct with where the storm will track (to the BM). Mainly cause actual observations at the time were showing a juiced up system and it was easy to see convection near the coast meant a low pressure track near the coast too. But the reason my snow totals were lower was because of the unusual set-up of the storm. Dry air, lack of frontogenesis, and lack of blocking were concerns of mine. However, the upper level jet and jaw-dropping dynamics of the storm, which intensified very rapidly near the BM, were enough to overcome those concerns. Therefore, snow totals were higher than expected across the board.

Lessons are always learned with big storms like this. And maybe I still need to be better at relying less on models. I mean, honestly, the global models were ATROCIOUS. I've never seen such horrid performance from them. Even inside 24 hours their qpf was severely understated.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:38 pm

You did a great job, Frank!! Not many people can say that their final forecast, issued 24 hours IN ADVANCE, was better than entities such as media outlets or the NWS forecasts that were still changing DURING the event. That's not even bringing up the fact that your PRELIMINARY forecast issued better than 36 hours in advance WAS STILL BETTER than those outlets that were all updating forecasts during the event lol something to be said about that. In my experience, being a great forecaster is as much an art as it is a science, and you, along with the rest of the gang on here, are mighty good artists lol

To your second point, guidance truly was pitiful. I mean, like, BAD ahaha I can't say I've ever seen such poor performance either. It was actually kind of amazing lmao there are a few takeaways for me, though, from this whole thing: 1. This storm showed us that any outcome is just as plausible as the next, even if it's not statistically "likely", and all such outcomes should be analyzed for their sensibility equally; not just glanced at because they aren't as "likely" . 2. As you stated, models are tools, not gospel 3. The NAM and its SREF family has continued to prove it's skill over recent years, especially with these more impactful systems. Since its upgrade, it is definitely a model that should be ranked and treated equally with others (EURO, UK, etc.). Along the same lines, it appears to me that "The King" may not be as good as it once was. The Canadian also seems improved, though still has its days. 4. I never realized how stubborn the other outlets were to acknowledge other forms of guidance.


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Post by Guest Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:00 pm

I second, third and fourth all the sentiments expressed above.. I gotta say though rb and Quietace really nailed this storm. If you read their posts they basically laughed at the global models and were confident in much higher amounts the entire time.

Oh and THE NWS SUCKS

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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:16 am

12.2 here

Everyone keeps throwing out the Nam with every storm. I think it's time to take it seriously. You know a storm is coming when the Nam is amped.
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