JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Here we go peeps. 0z NAM has initialized

And 0z NAM says wave goodbye. 18z teased us

however, it's not necessarily more east, but the LP doesnt organize and stays elongated causing the precip shield not to be as expansive to the west

UGHHHGHGHGHGHGHGHG

Yeah, shows no love from the coastal, just a tease from the energy coming from the west, maybe a dusting

Hi RES is a little better but still east of 18z

0Z RGEM not much better

Today's 6z runs seem to have taken a jog west, if it holds or trends further westward, eastern areas (NJ coast and LI) could be in for a surprise light accumulation, some snow showers could make it to the PA border but I don't expect any accum out here.

NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this. Well see.

sroc4 wrote:NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this.  Well see.  

Looks to me most areas will see a general C-1"

Timing is late tonight through most of Tuesday morning.

12z NAM is completely dry

Trough looks neutral already.  

Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw

aiannone wrote:Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw

wish we had a like button.... thanks for sharing

GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:

aiannone wrote:GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:

The final NW push.

Latest Upton Disco...

Main update this morning is to lower pops this afternoon and
overnight.

Latest hi-res models, 12z NAM and current radar trends, it
appears most of the precipitation remains offshore. Any
precipitation that does fall this afternoon will be light, and
could start off as a few sprinkles before changing over to light
snow as colder air advects in aloft. Have removed the likely
POPs and will keep just chance POPs in the forecast.

Updated Rayno Video:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/northeast-snow-monday-night-and-again-late-in-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=%20Northeast%20snow;%20Monday%20night%20and%20again%20late%20in%20week

HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick

sroc4 wrote:HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick

That HRRR sim radar would literally mirror Ryano's thought on the precip field. Will be interesting to see if he's right

I didnt actually watch it yet. Now I have to

Precip does seem to breaking out decently far west

Good video by Rayno - I'll take my 24 flurriies and run and want the back end storm an then next weeks and the following weeks to produce.

Flurries starting here

aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

False. I’m here with you guys. Radar looks surprisingly good all the way through Jersey down to DC. Any chance for a 2” surprise. (I use that line on my wife a lot)