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JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:03 pm

however, it's not necessarily more east, but the LP doesnt organize and stays elongated causing the precip shield not to be as expansive to the west
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:06 pm

UGHHHGHGHGHGHGHGHG
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:28 pm

Yeah, shows no love from the coastal, just a tease from the energy coming from the west, maybe a dusting

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:29 pm

Hi RES is a little better but still east of 18z
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:24 pm

0Z RGEM not much better

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:03 am

Today's 6z runs seem to have taken a jog west, if it holds or trends further westward, eastern areas (NJ coast and LI) could be in for a surprise light accumulation, some snow showers could make it to the PA border but I don't expect any accum out here.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:17 am

NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this. Well see.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:22 am

@sroc4 wrote:NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this.  Well see.  

Looks to me most areas will see a general C-1"

Timing is late tonight through most of Tuesday morning.

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:55 am

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 96063010
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:57 am

12z NAM is completely dry
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:03 am

Trough looks neutral already.  

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 500mb

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:11 am

Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:55 am

@aiannone wrote:Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw

wish we had a like button....Smile thanks for sharing
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:34 am

GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Captur47
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:39 am

@aiannone wrote:GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Captur47

The final NW push.

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:31 pm

Latest Upton Disco...

Main update this morning is to lower pops this afternoon and
overnight.

Latest hi-res models, 12z NAM and current radar trends, it
appears most of the precipitation remains offshore. Any
precipitation that does fall this afternoon will be light, and
could start off as a few sprinkles before changing over to light
snow as colder air advects in aloft. Have removed the likely
POPs and will keep just chance POPs in the forecast.
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:35 pm

Updated Rayno Video:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/northeast-snow-monday-night-and-again-late-in-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=%20Northeast%20snow;%20Monday%20night%20and%20again%20late%20in%20week
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:34 pm

HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Downlo10



_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:37 pm

@sroc4 wrote:HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 Downlo10



That HRRR sim radar would literally mirror Ryano's thought on the precip field. Will be interesting to see if he's right
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:50 pm

I didnt actually watch it yet. Now I have to

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:50 pm

Precip does seem to breaking out decently far west
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 5 B7f0de10
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:09 pm

Good video by Rayno - I'll take my 24 flurriies and run and want the back end storm an then next weeks and the following weeks to produce.

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:07 pm

Flurries starting here
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:21 pm

@aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:50 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

False. I’m here with you guys. Radar looks surprisingly good all the way through Jersey down to DC. Any chance for a 2” surprise. (I use that line on my wife a lot) Wink

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