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JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Post by oldtimer on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:02 am

Still light snow Probably 4+ inches Never thought it would amount to this much Nice

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:04 am

Still light to mod snow falling:

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 Hfd_None_anim
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.45652173913043475&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=215.90476190476193&transx=0&transy=-24

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:08 am

31* cloudy. Must have had some flurries overnight as my car has a dusting, nothing on paved surfaces. Just goes once again to show what a world of difference 50-75 miles makes when it comes to weather.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:15 am

@sroc4 wrote:Still light to mod snow falling:

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 Hfd_None_anim
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.45652173913043475&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=215.90476190476193&transx=0&transy=-24

You have been the hottest forecaster in the area this winter. Can you reel something in Friday for all of us?
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Post by Dtone on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:21 am

Very surprised..waking up to what looks like a little over an inch of snow on grassy surfaces/cars. I expected nothing. Its a wet snow, coating the trees. Light snow now, 31*

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:21 am

@billg315 wrote:31* cloudy. Must have had some flurries overnight as my car has a dusting, nothing on paved surfaces. Just goes once again to show what a world of difference 50-75 miles makes when it comes to weather.

Same here Billg.Just a heavy dusting, maybe .125 to.25.NWS saying 1 to 2 inches Thursday night.Yet another minor snow event.So far they say a rain to snow scenario.
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:24 am

From 1" NYC to 8" out by Scott. Some gradient. I left Syosset at 6:50 with 3.5". Might get to 4" but won't know because I'm in Great Neck which is 12 miles west and here we have 2"

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:29 am

[quote="CPcantmeasuresnow"]
@sroc4 wrote:Still light to mod snow falling:



You have been the hottest forecaster in the area this winter. Can you reel something in Friday for all of  us?


Thanks CP. Regarding the Thursday into Friday threat: I posted this yesterday I believe in the LR thread, and I think it still holds true. I added a few comments in between that weren't originally there.

The set up is very reminiscent of March 2013/14 where all it takes is a weak low pressure and a favorably positioned frontal boundary to develop south of Long Island to start the warm air advection. The air mass to the north will be much colder than it is now and we still have warm air to our south and east so I think if this happens there will be baroclinically enhanced vertical motion, especially along the coast, and enhance precept totals that usually don’t become evident until the Hi-Rez models take over, and as proven this morning even the hi-res may not pin point all the details. Also with northern stream energy historically under model this season before it makes it on shore it won’t take much additional digging into the trough to develop a slightly more significant low pressure along the frontal boundary and enhance the warm air advection and become a nice moderate event. The models still have the main trough pretty broad based with the energy associated with it pretty strung out, but we shall see. Id bet it trends better.

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:32 am

White gold in Flemington!!

Just a passing shower but still. Not a complete shutout.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:56 am

29.8° and about an inch, very pretty and not disruptive. Hoping to get a little more later!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:58 am

syosnow94 wrote:From 1" NYC to 8" out by Scott. Some gradient. I left Syosset at 6:50 with 3.5". Might get to 4" but won't know because I'm in Great Neck which is 12 miles west and here we have 2"

Just to translate for any new forum members out there:

We take Syos totals and we times them by .6, so 3.5 inches (his total) X .6 = 2.1 inches of snow that actually fell at his house.
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:08 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:From 1" NYC to 8" out by Scott. Some gradient. I left Syosset at 6:50 with 3.5". Might get to 4" but won't know because I'm in Great Neck which is 12 miles west and here we have 2"

Just to translate for any new forum members out there:

We take Syos totals and we times them by .6, so 3.5 inches (his total)  X .6 = 2.1 inches of snow that actually fell at his house.

....well done, except this time I have a ruler measurement from 5:30 am of 3.5” tongue tongue rollseyes

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Post by Math23x7 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:12 am

Snow on colder surfaces here in Manhattan

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:13 am

Holy surprise. Looks like central and eastern LI did VERY well. Nice job Scott for being on top of this one Thumbs up

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:23 am

whoo hoo..nice surprise!! we got an 1.5 and a beautiful scene this morning. roads are just fine..all on grassy surfaces!! onto the next! Great work Sroc!! and Alex...
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:48 am

Very fine light snow here on the Nassau Queens border. 2.5”. I suspect out by my house where I measured 3.5” at 5:30, we’ve picked up another 1/2” in the last 3 hours do probably 4”. Scott and Alex still getting moderate snow. Gotta be at 8”

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:52 am

syosnow94 wrote:Very fine light snow here on the Nassau Queens border.  2.5”. I suspect out by my house where I measured 3.5” at 5:30, we’ve picked up another 1/2” in the last 3 hours do probably 4”. Scott and Alex still getting moderate snow.  Gotta be at 8”

Wow, Jimmy, that's some gradient from the westernmost points to the east.hate to be living in that westernmost spot on a day like this,LOL.Like the line in that old Frankie Valli song..."so close but yet so far"!
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Post by Snow88 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:52 am

Around an inch here in Brooklyn, NY

Another awful model performance by the Euro
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:56 am

Uptown officially reporting 7.3” and that’s 30 minutes ago. Some places near Montauk reporting 9”. Scott is just north of Upton. He’s the NJstrongweather jackpot winner, doubling my 4” total. Alex gotta be near 6 or 7” too

Puts me at 28”+ a little IMBY and we’re not even in February yet!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:12 am

Closing in on 5 inches here in the HV, just edging out Syos imaginary 4 inches.

I didn't have the lawn cut after September first which is why it appears less in spots.

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 4_6_in10
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:17 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Closing in on 5 inches here in the HV, just edging out Syos imaginary 4 inches.

I didn't have the lawn cut after September first which is why it appears less in spots.

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 4_6_in10

That actually got me laughing pretty good.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:24 am

Cp Hilarious!  It just want to stop out here. Back to light to moderate snow

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 930am10


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:38 am; edited 2 times in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:24 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Just know Scott set up a perfect Assist opportunity for somebody to drill home, syo, but because I sincerely respect you, and do not exactly know you personally, I shall refrain from further comment ahahahaha that said, I hope you guys do cash in (as much as possible), but I would not get your hopes up. With the best layer-deep forcing continuing to outrun the lower-levels, I do not expect much more than snow showers and periods of light snow with minimal accumulations, likely remaining under an inch. Just my opinion, though. However, the last time I said that, or at least something similar, I discovered how crow tastes, so...........lmao

Would you like some fresh cracked black pepper or parmesian cheese with that?  LOL.  Sorry Ray I couldn't resist


JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 8 Eat-Crow

Just so you're all aware, that was a trick of the mind - I knew this would happen the whole time he he. In case any of you are wondering, it tastes like pheasant, though a little gamier ahaha I have three things to say about this system:

1. In my defense, I haven't been able to pay much attention, supported by my lack of posting in the last week (not a cop-out, just truth)
2. I should have realized the training effect of the mid-levels last night, and in general, need to accept the fact that you can sustain moderate snowfall events even without deep-layer forcing in place (this is two events I've gotten burned by, though this one I didn't release an actual "forecast" for the books, so it has yet to be determined if it will count toward my seasonal score lol both lacked any substantial jet support, yet the mid- and lower-level proved to be sufficient). This is the main forecasting takeaway for me, personally, and will add it to my catalog.
3. To our three resident forecasters who did not give up on this: Captain Scott, First Mate Alex, and of course Second Mate Mugsy, you have proven just how invaluable the human touch and pattern recognition really are, and continue to show how passion and understanding can consistently beat complacency and modeling. Not to be left out is also your contribution of knowledge to maintain and continue growing our great forum. A job very well done by the three of you!!

For the record, my attention continues to be mainly focused on things other than forecasting at the moment, though I am still paying very close attention to my forecast issued a couple weeks ago regarding the pattern change, as that did consist of several hours of research and analysis, and WILL BE scored for verification. However, just as a warning, it may also be the last actual forecast I issue this winter season given the state of other things, unless I see something that gets me fired up, at which point it will be made known that I'm fired up lol Enjoy, all!!!

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:24 am

No official measurement yet

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:28 am

Filtered sun, very light snow,.25 inches WOOOOOOPPEEEEEEEE!, LOL.
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