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JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:15 pm

That's two to four inch on the 18 z nam. Very close to what the UK IE shows. It seems that models always underestimate the Northwest edge of the precipitation field until very close in let's see if we can get another 50 mile Tick West and 0z tonight
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:22 pm

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 Captur44
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:34 pm

3k NAM
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 Captur45
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:55 pm

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 Captur46
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:11 pm

The 18 Z Rgem is a huge hit. Scott where are you the ship is not sinking
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:14 pm

18z RGEM!!!JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 6d1cbf10
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:17 pm

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 I_nw_e10

@algae888 wrote:The 18 Z Rgem is a huge hit. Scott where are you the ship is not sinking
This should wake the board up. Shocked
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:19 pm

Throw me a life jacket!!!! I didn’t hear no fat lady!!!!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:23 pm

The winter of the last minute NW trend...
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:25 pm

Nws disco...
However, cannot rule out the recent trends of a solution closer to the benchmark will not continue. If this occurs, then accumulating snows could be expected farther west, back into the NYC/SW CT and possibly into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. At this time the "high end amount" forecast (1 in 10 chance of higher snowfall than this) is 2-4" across Long Island/S Ct and 1-3" elsewhere. Will continue to monitor, but could need to do some short notice advisories (with a very small chance (currently < 10%) of needing warnings) over at least the eastern portion of the CWA. &&
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:28 pm

Rgem is 3-6" city on east
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:31 pm

HRDPS
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 18910e10
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:06 pm

Here it comes SROC!!!!!!!

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 IMG_1167.GIF.1273e4494fb18cfc96b6df8cd3c0c48b.thumb.GIF.2ed220b4a96b8bca46c78da36310b5b5

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:14 pm

If the combined 12-km NAM, 3-km NAM, and RGEM solutions verify, then.......well.......uuuhhhh......so much for my no snow till President's Day prediction.......

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:26 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:If the combined 12-km NAM, 3-km NAM, and RGEM solutions verify, then.......well.......uuuhhhh......so much for my no snow till President's Day prediction.......

Wasn't that no snow till the end of February?
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:35 pm

These solutions still seem to have me 1-3. But I guess I’ll take that over the flurries I was expecting from what I as hearing earlier this afternoon.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:56 pm

NWS not buying any of the above for me.Just 30% chance of snow showers Tuesday.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:02 pm

From Upton, not expecting much.....

Weather Summary for the Local Tri-State Region
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018

Conditions will be mainly dry tonight as a cold front stalls
offshore. Temperatures will be colder than last night, but still
above normal for this time of year, ranging from the upper 20s
well inland, to the middle 30s in the New York City metro area.

An area of low pressure over the Southeast Coast will develop
along the stalled frontal boundary on Monday and head northeast,
passing well south and east of Long Island Monday night. However,
enough moisture will move in for some light rain to affect the
Twin Forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut by the
afternoon. This area of precipitation will push west during the
afternoon and evening hours, with the precipitation changing to
light snow everywhere Monday night. Generally, less than an inch
of snow is expected for eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by Tuesday morning, with perhaps up to an inch for the
eastern areas of the South Fork.

Tuesday will be unsettled and seasonably cold, with dry and colder
temperatures in store for mid-week.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:08 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:From Upton, not expecting much.....

Weather Summary for the Local Tri-State Region
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018

Conditions will be mainly dry tonight as a cold front stalls
offshore. Temperatures will be colder than last night, but still
above normal for this time of year, ranging from the upper 20s
well inland, to the middle 30s in the New York City metro area.

An area of low pressure over the Southeast Coast will develop
along the stalled frontal boundary on Monday and head northeast,
passing well south and east of Long Island Monday night. However,
enough moisture will move in for some light rain to affect the
Twin Forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut by the
afternoon. This area of precipitation will push west during the
afternoon and evening hours, with the precipitation changing to
light snow everywhere Monday night. Generally, less than an inch
of snow is expected for eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by Tuesday morning, with perhaps up to an inch for the
eastern areas of the South Fork.

Tuesday will be unsettled and seasonably cold, with dry and colder
temperatures in store for mid-week.

At this time, it appears that the bulk of any precipitation
should be confined mainly to the SE 1/3-1/2 of the CWA. So at
this time limit chance pops and higher to the SE 1/2 of the CWA
with slight chance pops elsewhere. Precipitation should start as
a wintry mix or rain Monday afternoon (maybe late Monday
morning far SE) before boundary layer cools sufficiently to
support all snow. Any snow then continues into Monday night
before tapering off from W to E as the low exits to the E.
Currently looking for 1 to maybe 2 inches snow over far eastern
portions of the Twin Forks with up to an inch of snow over the
remainder of E Suffolk County and New London County.

However, cannot rule out the recent trends of a solution closer
to the benchmark will not continue. If this occurs, then
accumulating snows could be expected farther west, back into
the NYC/SW CT and possibly into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley. At this time the "high end amount" forecast (1 in 10
chance of higher snowfall than this) is 2-4" across Long
Island/S Ct and 1-3" elsewhere. Will continue to monitor, but
could need to do some short notice advisories (with a very small
chance (currently < 10%) of needing warnings) over at least the
eastern portion of the CWA.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:08 pm

Huge hit for snj an inch of liquid. This looks goodJAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 5a6e6310
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Post by SnowForest Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:19 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Huge hit for snj an inch of liquid. This looks goodJAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 5a6e6310

Wow! I'd love to see that happen.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:30 pm

Sign me up I will take this and runJAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 Hrdps_10
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:33 pm

whatis he seeing lol? BL will be below freezing
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 4 223f8610

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:42 pm

Here we go peeps. 0z NAM has initialized
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:02 pm

And 0z NAM says wave goodbye. 18z teased us
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