JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Yes Alex the nam is way west of 12 Z

That's two to four inch on the 18 z nam. Very close to what the UK IE shows. It seems that models always underestimate the Northwest edge of the precipitation field until very close in let's see if we can get another 50 mile Tick West and 0z tonight

3k NAM

The 18 Z Rgem is a huge hit. Scott where are you the ship is not sinking

18z RGEM!!!

algae888 wrote:The 18 Z Rgem is a huge hit. Scott where are you the ship is not sinking

This should wake the board up.

Throw me a life jacket!!!! I didn’t hear no fat lady!!!!!

The winter of the last minute NW trend...

Nws disco...
However, cannot rule out the recent trends of a solution closer to the benchmark will not continue. If this occurs, then accumulating snows could be expected farther west, back into the NYC/SW CT and possibly into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. At this time the "high end amount" forecast (1 in 10 chance of higher snowfall than this) is 2-4" across Long Island/S Ct and 1-3" elsewhere. Will continue to monitor, but could need to do some short notice advisories (with a very small chance (currently < 10%) of needing warnings) over at least the eastern portion of the CWA. &&

Rgem is 3-6" city on east

HRDPS

Here it comes SROC!!!!!!!

If the combined 12-km NAM, 3-km NAM, and RGEM solutions verify, then.......well.......uuuhhhh......so much for my no snow till President's Day prediction.......

Math23x7 wrote:If the combined 12-km NAM, 3-km NAM, and RGEM solutions verify, then.......well.......uuuhhhh......so much for my no snow till President's Day prediction.......

Wasn't that no snow till the end of February?

These solutions still seem to have me 1-3. But I guess I’ll take that over the flurries I was expecting from what I as hearing earlier this afternoon.

NWS not buying any of the above for me.Just 30% chance of snow showers Tuesday.

From Upton, not expecting much.....

Weather Summary for the Local Tri-State Region
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018

Conditions will be mainly dry tonight as a cold front stalls
offshore. Temperatures will be colder than last night, but still
above normal for this time of year, ranging from the upper 20s
well inland, to the middle 30s in the New York City metro area.

An area of low pressure over the Southeast Coast will develop
along the stalled frontal boundary on Monday and head northeast,
passing well south and east of Long Island Monday night. However,
enough moisture will move in for some light rain to affect the
Twin Forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut by the
afternoon. This area of precipitation will push west during the
afternoon and evening hours, with the precipitation changing to
light snow everywhere Monday night. Generally, less than an inch
of snow is expected for eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by Tuesday morning, with perhaps up to an inch for the
eastern areas of the South Fork.

Tuesday will be unsettled and seasonably cold, with dry and colder
temperatures in store for mid-week.

Dunnzoo wrote:From Upton, not expecting much.....

Weather Summary for the Local Tri-State Region
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018

Conditions will be mainly dry tonight as a cold front stalls
offshore. Temperatures will be colder than last night, but still
above normal for this time of year, ranging from the upper 20s
well inland, to the middle 30s in the New York City metro area.

An area of low pressure over the Southeast Coast will develop
along the stalled frontal boundary on Monday and head northeast,
passing well south and east of Long Island Monday night. However,
enough moisture will move in for some light rain to affect the
Twin Forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut by the
afternoon. This area of precipitation will push west during the
afternoon and evening hours, with the precipitation changing to
light snow everywhere Monday night. Generally, less than an inch
of snow is expected for eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by Tuesday morning, with perhaps up to an inch for the
eastern areas of the South Fork.

Tuesday will be unsettled and seasonably cold, with dry and colder
temperatures in store for mid-week.

At this time, it appears that the bulk of any precipitation
should be confined mainly to the SE 1/3-1/2 of the CWA. So at
this time limit chance pops and higher to the SE 1/2 of the CWA
with slight chance pops elsewhere. Precipitation should start as
a wintry mix or rain Monday afternoon (maybe late Monday
morning far SE) before boundary layer cools sufficiently to
support all snow. Any snow then continues into Monday night
before tapering off from W to E as the low exits to the E.
Currently looking for 1 to maybe 2 inches snow over far eastern
portions of the Twin Forks with up to an inch of snow over the
remainder of E Suffolk County and New London County.

However, cannot rule out the recent trends of a solution closer
to the benchmark will not continue. If this occurs, then
accumulating snows could be expected farther west, back into
the NYC/SW CT and possibly into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley. At this time the "high end amount" forecast (1 in 10
chance of higher snowfall than this) is 2-4" across Long
Island/S Ct and 1-3" elsewhere. Will continue to monitor, but
could need to do some short notice advisories (with a very small
chance (currently < 10%) of needing warnings) over at least the
eastern portion of the CWA.

Huge hit for snj an inch of liquid. This looks good

skinsfan1177 wrote:Huge hit for snj an inch of liquid. This looks good

Wow! I'd love to see that happen.

Sign me up I will take this and run

whatis he seeing lol? BL will be below freezing

Here we go peeps. 0z NAM has initialized

And 0z NAM says wave goodbye. 18z teased us