February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

So you are saying LI is going to rain? that has to be a mistake!

How did you draw that conclusion from the above? lmaoooo take a ruler and connect those points/regions; everywhere north of that ruler on a map will see mainly snow (in my opinion). Is LI north of that ruler?

rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

frank 638 wrote:I hope so jamley just watching Lee Goldberg forcast and he was saying for Sunday we will have wet snow going over to rain possibly going back to snow until Monday morning I want a freaking blizzard already LOL

rb924119 wrote:I don't know what the GFS is doing, or trying to do, or even trying to try to do; no matter which of the former unknowns, it matters not to me because I don't buy it. Not for one second. I really, really like a blend of the ICON and CMC, though think both thermal profiles are too warm. The problem that the GFS is having, in my opinion, is that it is trying to sharpen the entire long wave trough too much when the pattern just doesn't support it. You do not have a tall, skinny ridge spiking through the PNA/EPO domains allowing rapid and significant downstream amplification. Instead, you have a very broad Rex Block(y) ridge that encompasses most of the eastern Pacific. Because it is so broad, this will not serve as a mechanism by which the trough can sharpen. In looking at the Atlantic side of things, without a favorable NAO domain or presence of a 50-50 low, there is no mechanism by which to slow and buckle the steering flow to enough of an extent to really allow the trough to amplify by means of upstream propagation. Given all of this, what you should end up seeing based on the remaining forcing mechanisms in play, at least by my analysis, is the northern stream trough will remain generally broad based. However, it will still be able to dig deeper into the CONUS. This becomes important because the main energy that will be responsible for getting the moisture and surface feature going, will be coming in from the Pacific flow and get out ahead of it. As the long wave trough, driven by the northern stream, digs (but doesn't really sharpen), the flow will be allowed to back some ahead of it, which is how we will get the lower-level circulation/moisture drawn up this way, but because the flow is so fast, the northern stream energy will be able to catch the southern stream before it exits the East Coast. What does that northern stream energy deliver? A fresh injection of cold air. And what should result, is as the southern stream energy reaches about the latitude of Virginia, we should have the northern stream energy approaching to deliver the fresh cold air AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM-DRIVEN LOWER-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN in response to the additional forcing brought about by the presence of the northern stream energy. This is why I think we end up seeing a colder solution than is currently modeled, even on the two models I like the best and am blending for a general concept of what i think will occur.

Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO shows this being an all rain event for much of the region.  IMHO, we come up empty from both the 2nd and the 5th.