February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
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bobjohnsonforthehall
WeatherBob
Radz
dkodgis
Snow88
algae888
RJB8525
docstox12
jimv45
Math23x7
amugs
frank 638
jmanley32
sroc4
SENJsnowman
skinsfan1177
rb924119
aiannone
billg315
Frank_Wx
24 posters
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Just read NWS, this is now mostly all rain as Frank had on the banner the last few days.Frank nailed it.From NWS 2 days ago 3 to 7 inches, now they say 1/2 inch! BUSTED! NEXT PLEASE!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
What he said.
How disappointing is that? No snow for the average Joe. Again.
How disappointing is that? No snow for the average Joe. Again.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
aiannone wrote:So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?
No. All of the isentropic lift, which will be the primary forcing mechanism this time, will be ahead of the front. Whatever we get on the front end will be it, aside from any lagging light snow showers. I'm still suspicious of this system, as time and time again we have seen the precip shut down before any true changeover of significance occurs in events like this one, and still think modeling is too bearish on the warmth (especially if the secondary development pops in line with how I envision(ed) it, but I'm clearly on my own island. NOT to be confused with Revis Island. However, my preliminary analysis from several days ago was not too far off, and given the lack of time that I've had to forecast this event and others, am not going to beat myself up about it. We get what we get.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Pretty healthy radar currently, I'd normally be a happy camper right about now! Not sure what the surface reports are indicating, or if anything is reaching the ground, but still holding out hope to see some snow here (imb) before the change over once the precip moves in...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Well, since this is a busy travel day for a lot of people visiting friends for the game, I hope it starts as rain and ends as rain so people can travel safely. Its going to be a general rain event anyway.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.
Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Yeah rb 850 s are still plenty cold precipitation knocking on the door for the city could see a surprise little snow before the changeover as I said the other day we needed precipitation to get here as quickly as possible to have any chance of snow on the front endrb924119 wrote:bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.
Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Alex I'm at 38 with a dew point of 20 if precipitation comes in the next few hours I should be snow before the changeover according to radar precip knocking on my dooraiannone wrote:Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
I also find it funny how nothing is picking up on the fact that our secondary low has already developed in response to the southern stream energy over eastern S.C. This was something I mentioned way back in my initial analysis of this system as part of the reason why I believed the thermal profiles were being depicted to be much too warm. Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how that initial analysis holds up, but at least as of now, I think most of us are going turn frowns upside down, even if only for a little while
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Current 850:
Current 925
Current 925
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Still moderate snow. No accumulation but very pretty. Flakes getting bigger. Had been 35, went done to 33, now back to 35.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
It’s amazing how quickly the arctic air gets eroded on the coast. Dews were in the teens nearly 12 hours ago with a high of 27 yesterday. Now temp 45 and dew of 45! SAD!
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
It's snowing? 40.1
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Light snow 37.8°
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1
You’re snowing at 40.1?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
light snow down to 36* dp up to 29*.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Vinnydula wrote:Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing
What is everyone’s dew point?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*aiannone wrote:Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1
You’re snowing at 40.1?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
sleeting now with some snow mixed in. this will not last long however.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
algae888 wrote:alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*aiannone wrote:Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1
You’re snowing at 40.1?
Interesting. I’ll see what it does in my area when the precip moves in. Right now I’m getting sunny breaks, which is spiking temps lol
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
40.5 all snow atm
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible
frank we haven't had one snow to rain event yet this year. today and wens will be our first two.frank 638 wrote:Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms
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