STATE OF THE UNION--As seen through my eyes

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:Absolutely great article by Earth light in the upcoming Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that looks to take place Feb 20th. What dies this mean? Well we could have a wild 3 week period from the 20th to mid March with the most elusive Negative NAO. This time of year we have BIGGLY storms and with the monster westerly wind burst forcing the MJO wave to come east into pahse 8 then 1 and 2 this will aid in the trough over the East coast.
Peeps, this could be a wild 3 weeks stretch that ands us AN for snowfall. I am not saying it will but the "coupling" between the SSW event and the AO tanking and NAO it could be a great stretch to end winter.
Many though we would see this early in Feb but it did not materialize. The very strong MJO phase 6 and 7 have sent all this latent heat pole ward and we see this in the latest heat Flux graphs/charts  for the stratosphere.
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/

What a phenomenal write up by earthlight.  I just had a chance to fully read this.   I love it.  I will say though Mugs I don't think its the westerly wind burst pushing our MJO east, but rather its the MJO's propagation that is changing the SOI value.  Recall the SOI is a calculation based on the pressure differences between Darwin Australia and Tahiti.  So as the MJO propagates eastward its only natural that the convection associated with the MJO lowers pressure nearer Tahiti or east of Australia in phases 6 into 7 and pressures rapidly rise near Darwin as HP moves in as the convection moves out.  With such a robust MJO wave it makes sense to see a large difference between the LP to the east and HP building in west, and as we all know air moves from areas of HP to areas of LP.    Using the image below we can visualize the increase to the westerly wind component, aka westerly wind burst (WWB) Mugsy is referencing, as the convection is now centered in phases 6 -7.  





Here was a SST map I labeled back on October 27th when I was concerned with how the winter would play out compared to todays SSTA.  My concern then was that the SST configuration would lead to a recycling of the MJO through the warmer phases and unless acted upon by other larger drivers could lead to negative stretches for winter lovers.




Now Since that initial write up there have been 3 cycles of the MJO doing exactly that, rotation through the "warm" phases of the MJO.  Below is the MJO plots since October 2017.  Look at the bottom of the images to see what colors correlate with what month.  Notice in Oct we came out in 4 and moved through 4-5-6-7 before going back into the Null phase.  Then most of Nov was spent in the null phase before once again an MJO wave initiated and came out in 4 moving east through 4-5-6-7 once again only this time the MJO wave did not die out, but rather continued into phase 8-1-2 to end December, much colder phases for that time of year.






Here was a quote from myself from Nov 6th when Al and I were going back and forth about the pattern.  And as you can see below if we cont to recycle the MJO through any of these phases as we head deeper into the season we will not see sustained cold in the east without something else influencing our pattern.

This was a quote 2 days later on Nov 8th.

I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot. Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens. Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.....I think it was back on the 18th when I said It would rebound back towards warmth the first 1-2weeks into Nov.  Thats why I said "pretty much" dead on.  I recognized the rebound but failed to recognize that the amplified MJO would have such a profound effect on the strat.  This wasnt a true SSWE by the strictest of definition, but as Tom points out was sufficient enough to shift the position and shape of the of the strat vortex such that it will sit centered over W Canada for at least the next several weeks if forecasts are correct.  This means that the coldest air in the world relative to avgs will be on our side of the northern hemisphere.  This is in stark contrast to last year when we had similar weak La Nina to neg neutral Trop Pac forcings but instead the strat vortex sat on the other side of the globe keepiong the coldest air trapped over asia.  .

 After the first go round of the MJO through the warm phases (mid Oct-early Nov) we saw the arctic blast in Nov beginning around Nov 8-10th and a sustained period of BN temps that lasted about 2 weeks before returning towards normal after thanks giving.  As we ended Nov and began December through the end of 2017 we say the MJO "recycle" through the warm phases of the MJO yet again.  Ironically it seems that the MJO through the warm phases seems to be the reason for the eventual return to a more sustained period of cold yet again. After the second go round through the warmer phases of the MJO(late Nov-late Dec), we saw an even more pronounced and even record breaking period of cold beginning around Xmas lasting into the first 10-12days of Jan.  This was because the strat had persisted through a weakened, elongated, and favorably positioned state, AND the MJO also continued east into the cold phases of MJO.  These two factors aligned nicely enhancing the overall effects.  

Now here we are a 3rd go round of the MJO  through the warm phases.  As you can see from the MJO plot map above after Jan 1st the MJO never actually crashed onto the null phase but rather recycled once again through 2-3 before entering 4-5-6-7 once again leading directly to the "Jan thaw" where we had a 2-3 week stretch of AN temps taking us to begin Feb.  Now what I failed to recognize, and only a few did (Isotherm and Earthlight), the true strength of this 3rd recycling of the MJO through these warm phases.  It truly has been impressive the amplitude this time.  The other thing I failed to recognize is just how long it would take to get through them.  When I was talking about how unbelievable the month of Feb was going to be back around Jan 22nd-24th or so it was predicated on the fact that I believed that by the first week of Feb we would be entering phase 8 yet again after two decent wave 1 attacks on the strat PV, and combo of the favorable strat and cold phase alignment would once again lead toa similar result as we saw to end 2017 and begin 2018.  



The problem is; however, the trop forcing on the pattern as a result of the incredibly strong amplitude of this MJO wave through 4-5-6-7 has led to this pattern that although is very active is still semi zonal so the systems are not quite ready or able to tap into the truly cold air that is just to the north.  

But yet again the irony.  The irony in that this incredibly intense MJO wave propagation through warm phases giving us a less than ideal pattern will likely yet again be the direct reason for the incredibly powerful wave 2 attack on the strat in the next 7-10days disrupting it such that a true SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) should occur and the potential for a more favorable pattern once again.  As earthlight (John Homenuk) has pointed out in his write up this has not occurred, by the strictest of definitions, since about 2009.  The results of which, esp if the MJO really does go into 8-1-2 could be truly memorable for cold and or snow in the east for a 3-4 week stretch to end Feb and begin March.  And yes a true -NAO block could be a part of this equation.  

For now we will have to settle for a "mediocre" pattern.  There will be several chances at snow, and temps will likely avg N to BN overall I believe for the first 15-20days of Feb.  But the snow chances def favor interior sections as the pattern is such that its more likely that we see storm tracks that warm sector the area out ahead of the storm with possible front end snows followed by mixing and or rain along the coastal plain; then return to cold BN temps after it all passes.  This of course doesn't mean that we cant get a decent system come together for the coast as well if the  Pac and Polar s/w's are timed just right.

There is plenty of logic, and science behind why the winter "should" end as a very memorable one for all the right reasons; however, we all should hold reservation until we get closer in time.  To quote myself one final time...“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”.  

HAPPY SUPEBOWL SUNDAY!!!!  

Radz wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:Absolutely great article by Earth light in the upcoming Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that looks to take place Feb 20th. What dies this mean? Well we could have a wild 3 week period from the 20th to mid March with the most elusive Negative NAO. This time of year we have BIGGLY storms and with the monster westerly wind burst forcing the MJO wave to come east into pahse 8 then 1 and 2 this will aid in the trough over the East coast.
Peeps, this could be a wild 3 weeks stretch that ands us AN for snowfall. I am not saying it will but the "coupling" between the SSW event and the AO tanking and NAO it could be a great stretch to end winter.
Many though we would see this early in Feb but it did not materialize. The very strong MJO phase 6 and 7 have sent all this latent heat pole ward and we see this in the latest heat Flux graphs/charts  for the stratosphere.
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/

What a phenomenal write up by earthlight.  I just had a chance to fully read this.   I love it.  I will say though Mugs I don't think its the westerly wind burst pushing our MJO east, but rather its the MJO's propagation that is changing the SOI value.  Recall the SOI is a calculation based on the pressure differences between Darwin Australia and Tahiti.  So as the MJO propagates eastward its only natural that the convection associated with the MJO lowers pressure nearer Tahiti or east of Australia in phases 6 into 7 and pressures rapidly rise near Darwin as HP moves in as the convection moves out.  With such a robust MJO wave it makes sense to see a large difference between the LP to the east and HP building in west, and as we all know air moves from areas of HP to areas of LP.    Using the image below we can visualize the increase to the westerly wind component, aka westerly wind burst (WWB) Mugsy is referencing, as the convection is now centered in phases 6 -7.  





Here was a SST map I labeled back on October 27th when I was concerned with how the winter would play out compared to todays SSTA.  My concern then was that the SST configuration would lead to a recycling of the MJO through the warmer phases and unless acted upon by other larger drivers could lead to negative stretches for winter lovers.




Now Since that initial write up there have been 3 cycles of the MJO doing exactly that, rotation through the "warm" phases of the MJO.  Below is the MJO plots since October 2017.  Look at the bottom of the images to see what colors correlate with what month.  Notice in Oct we came out in 4 and moved through 4-5-6-7 before going back into the Null phase.  Then most of Nov was spent in the null phase before once again an MJO wave initiated and came out in 4 moving east through 4-5-6-7 once again only this time the MJO wave did not die out, but rather continued into phase 8-1-2 to end December, much colder phases for that time of year.






Here was a quote from myself from Nov 6th when Al and I were going back and forth about the pattern.  And as you can see below if we cont to recycle the MJO through any of these phases as we head deeper into the season we will not see sustained cold in the east without something else influencing our pattern.

This was a quote 2 days later on Nov 8th.

I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot. Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens. Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.....I think it was back on the 18th when I said It would rebound back towards warmth the first 1-2weeks into Nov.  Thats why I said "pretty much" dead on.  I recognized the rebound but failed to recognize that the amplified MJO would have such a profound effect on the strat.  This wasnt a true SSWE by the strictest of definition, but as Tom points out was sufficient enough to shift the position and shape of the of the strat vortex such that it will sit centered over W Canada for at least the next several weeks if forecasts are correct.  This means that the coldest air in the world relative to avgs will be on our side of the northern hemisphere.  This is in stark contrast to last year when we had similar weak La Nina to neg neutral Trop Pac forcings but instead the strat vortex sat on the other side of the globe keepiong the coldest air trapped over asia.  .

 After the first go round of the MJO through the warm phases (mid Oct-early Nov) we saw the arctic blast in Nov beginning around Nov 8-10th and a sustained period of BN temps that lasted about 2 weeks before returning towards normal after thanks giving.  As we ended Nov and began December through the end of 2017 we say the MJO "recycle" through the warm phases of the MJO yet again.  Ironically it seems that the MJO through the warm phases seems to be the reason for the eventual return to a more sustained period of cold yet again. After the second go round through the warmer phases of the MJO(late Nov-late Dec), we saw an even more pronounced and even record breaking period of cold beginning around Xmas lasting into the first 10-12days of Jan.  This was because the strat had persisted through a weakened, elongated, and favorably positioned state, AND the MJO also continued east into the cold phases of MJO.  These two factors aligned nicely enhancing the overall effects.  

Now here we are a 3rd go round of the MJO  through the warm phases.  As you can see from the MJO plot map above after Jan 1st the MJO never actually crashed onto the null phase but rather recycled once again through 2-3 before entering 4-5-6-7 once again leading directly to the "Jan thaw" where we had a 2-3 week stretch of AN temps taking us to begin Feb.  Now what I failed to recognize, and only a few did (Isotherm and Earthlight), the true strength of this 3rd recycling of the MJO through these warm phases.  It truly has been impressive the amplitude this time.  The other thing I failed to recognize is just how long it would take to get through them.  When I was talking about how unbelievable the month of Feb was going to be back around Jan 22nd-24th or so it was predicated on the fact that I believed that by the first week of Feb we would be entering phase 8 yet again after two decent wave 1 attacks on the strat PV, and combo of the favorable strat and cold phase alignment would once again lead toa similar result as we saw to end 2017 and begin 2018.  



The problem is; however, the trop forcing on the pattern as a result of the incredibly strong amplitude of this MJO wave through 4-5-6-7 has led to this pattern that although is very active is still semi zonal so the systems are not quite ready or able to tap into the truly cold air that is just to the north.  

But yet again the irony.  The irony in that this incredibly intense MJO wave propagation through warm phases giving us a less than ideal pattern will likely yet again be the direct reason for the incredibly powerful wave 2 attack on the strat in the next 7-10days disrupting it such that a true SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) should occur and the potential for a more favorable pattern once again.  As earthlight (John Homenuk) has pointed out in his write up this has not occurred, by the strictest of definitions, since about 2009.  The results of which, esp if the MJO really does go into 8-1-2 could be truly memorable for cold and or snow in the east for a 3-4 week stretch to end Feb and begin March.  And yes a true -NAO block could be a part of this equation.  

For now we will have to settle for a "mediocre" pattern.  There will be several chances at snow, and temps will likely avg N to BN overall I believe for the first 15-20days of Feb.  But the snow chances def favor interior sections as the pattern is such that its more likely that we see storm tracks that warm sector the area out ahead of the storm with possible front end snows followed by mixing and or rain along the coastal plain; then return to cold BN temps after it all passes.  This of course doesn't mean that we cant get a decent system come together for the coast as well if the  Pac and Polar s/w's are timed just right.

There is plenty of logic, and science behind why the winter "should" end as a very memorable one for all the right reasons; however, we all should hold reservation until we get closer in time.  To quote myself one final time...“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”.  

HAPPY SUPEBOWL SUNDAY!!!!  

Another great write up Sroc, very educational and easily understood, thank you for all the time and research invested- you guys always do an exceptional job! Hope the MJO progresses into 8-1-2 this cycle!

amugs wrote:^^^^ The chicken did cause in order to make the egg......
Anyway, I am a kevel.above optimistic duento the discussion by Isothermal and a few others for a wintry end of February and 1st half of March.
2009 as I pointed out is analog by a few other pro mets too and is exciting to read IMO and learn about.  No mention of 03-04 but no problrm I could be dead wrong with that one LOL.
Ray calling Ray any input here my man?
SROC FOR PRESIDENT! !!

syosnow94 wrote:Great write up Scott.  In all seriousness it was fantastic....

Now here’s the real State of The Union.  There’s no snow on the ground and It’s 46 degrees with rain on the way in the middle of the coldest part of winter climatologically. To make matters worse the widely forecasted cold snowy pattern for February and the last 5-6 weeks of winter busted and now has reduced our”potential” to three weeks maybe.  Plus tonight we have a bunch of thugs running around on national tv during what is supposed to be the most American thing we have in the Super Bowl! (I will not watch). Enjoy the rain

rb924119 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Great write up Scott.  In all seriousness it was fantastic....

Now here’s the real State of The Union.  There’s no snow on the ground and It’s 46 degrees with rain on the way in the middle of the coldest part of winter climatologically. To make matters worse the widely forecasted cold snowy pattern for February and the last 5-6 weeks of winter busted and now has reduced our”potential” to three weeks maybe.  Plus tonight we have a bunch of thugs running around on national tv during what is supposed to be the most American thing we have in the Super Bowl! (I will not watch). Enjoy the rain

???? Idk where you're getting your Intel from, but nothing has busted, we still look EXCEEDINGLY GOOD for the last four to six weeks of Winter, and idk if this is the proper place to discuss further? Maybe LR Thread instead? Lol