FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
Guys take the torch to Feb obs and discussions please this is the storm thread.
Back to the show
SREFS!!!!!!!! WETTER
CLOSE UP VIEW

Back to the show
SREFS!!!!!!!! WETTER
CLOSE UP VIEW

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
@amugs wrote:Guys take the torch to Feb obs and discussions please this is the storm thread.
Back to the show
SREFS!!!!!!!! WETTER
CLOSE UP VIEW
is that SREF snow accumulation?
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Join date : 2013-01-07
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
Don’t like the look of the latest SREFS. That’s a big nw shift. The 0z NAM also looks a touch north. Are we beginning to see the nw shift inside of 24 hours that we’ve seen every storm this winter? Me feels uneasy. If I wake up tomorrow to a downgraded wwa then watch out..........
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
syosnow94 wrote:Don’t like the look of the latest SREFS. That’s a big nw shift. The 0z NAM also looks a touch north. Are we beginning to see the nw shift inside of 24 hours that we’ve seen every storm this winter? Me feels uneasy. If I wake up tomorrow to a downgraded wwa then watch out..........
Syo you on LI and south of te Driscoll Beidge have to watch out if that's what u mean. If u mean you will blow a gasket, this is old.
SREFS were snow from Driscoll Bridge N.
This is sick warning level niggle look here.
Sorry SNJ and LI

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
HIRES NAM SV

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
Wondering if Kutchera will really work out well for this storm. Not sure they’re being generous enough.
MattyICE- Posts : 84
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain. It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
Math, you don’t think that that could place the city under better banding with more dynamic rates/cooling that might countermand the warmth? Haven’t checked soundings at 0z but all day the surface seems to have been the only issue with marginal temps. With 950, 850, etc all looking pretty good.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
@Math23x7 wrote:If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain. It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.
Math that's a bold call and u seem to go the pessimists route with everyone of these storms. Your talking 287 and N storm. So u just wiped out I 80 burbs in NNJ, no way kid. Lets see what the rgem, gfs and euro show tonight. The trend is jog N and then correct SE a tick as the storm approaches. Alex posted a great post that was from FB with met and genius amateur mets about this storm.
See what Upton says later tonight in their write up if they update it.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
@amugs wrote:@Math23x7 wrote:If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain. It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.
Math that's a bold call and u seem to go the pessimists route with everyone of these storms. Your talking 287 and N storm. So u just wiped out I 80 burbs in NNJ, no way kid. Lets see what the rgem, gfs and euro show tonight. The trend is jog N and then correct SE a tick as the storm approaches. Alex posted a great post that was from FB with met and genius amateur mets about this storm.
See what Upton says later tonight in their write up if they update it.
If ya guys look at the SFC map i posted from the NAM it's all snow from LI on north
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
It has been over 24 hours since Frank made a post. Either something happened to him or he's not excited about this snow event.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
HI-Res NAM 850 temps


aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
RGEM nukes Bergen, Esseex, Union and Passaic counties big time!! Zoo if this would happen LOL!



Last edited by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
The freezing line is too close for comfort.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
@amugs wrote:RGEM nukes Bergen, Esseex, Union and Passaic counties big time!! Zoo if this would happen LOL!
It would be a sleepless night for sure! Are you around this weekend or taking advantage of long weekend?
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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
Zoo.suppose to go upstate to a friend's house tomorrow BUT may just have to cancel for its storm but I may get out voted GRRRR!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
RGEM

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
I think looking at the model precip type is misleading. Other factors such as diabatic cooling will make a big difference in accumulations. It will be a nowcast
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:


Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?
NWS reissues WSW for the entire area as of 9:48pm. Accumulations of 4-6”
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