FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Currently 33 degrees with a dew point of 16 very low-level dry air which should help with wet-bulb temperatures. Got down to 26 last night however my ground is not Frozen. We may lose initially to melting but a solid 3 to 6 in look likely from the city north and west obviously Long Island and Jersey Shore still up in the air

Dynamic cooling will be the key. Recall the last “surprise snowstorm on LI”. Temps were in the 40s all day, 37 on the onset and not much was accumulating. It occurred at night as well. As precip picked up temps dropped to 32 and snow began to stick. No high to the north either. Than as the precip became even heavier temps dropped all the way down to 26 degrees. Immediately after the precip ended temps rebounded to 38. Don’t underestimate dynamic cooling when upper levels are cold

SoulSingMG wrote:latest HRRR upped amounts a bit... It's gonna THUMP later!

I’m on the north shore of LI. West central. I’m just not confident. Thinking 1-3”. Latest NAM. Gives me just that. The HRRR puts the bullseye of 6-8” DIRECTLY OVER ME

Holy crap lol

aiannone wrote:Holy crap lol

That’s 2”+ per hour verbatim for Most of LI if it verifies.

Everyone better be up tonight tracking and posting obs lol

Latest HRRR

aiannone wrote:Latest HRRR

Wow, it keeps going up lol

Euro drops 6-8" hammer...but leaves LI standing out on the front lawn only to hear the party inside.

I'm not used to being in the white gold sweet spot for NJ. Not sure if I should be excited or fearing for Murphy's Law.

When is this bad boy supposed to start cranking here in Western NJ?

aiannone wrote:Latest HRRR

Those purples and pinks seem to be expanding in all directions and in intensity, at least from the 13z to 15z frames. It could be a nice over-achiever for many. Still think I'm out of it (GSP exit 80), but maybe only a few exits up like Toms River or Point Pleasant can sneak into some higher totals.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:I'm not used to being in the white gold sweet spot for NJ. Not sure if I should be excited or fearing for Murphy's Law.

When is this bad boy supposed to start cranking here in Western NJ?

What’s your location?

Grselig wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:I'm not used to being in the white gold sweet spot for NJ. Not sure if I should be excited or fearing for Murphy's Law.

When is this bad boy supposed to start cranking here in Western NJ?

What’s your location?

Flemington.

Clouds are on the increase here.

How much snow can we expect in Western Burlington County? From what I'm seeing, it looks like we miss out on the jackpot.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

Grselig wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:I'm not used to being in the white gold sweet spot for NJ. Not sure if I should be excited or fearing for Murphy's Law.

When is this bad boy supposed to start cranking here in Western NJ?

What’s your location?

Flemington.

Clouds are on the increase here.

Same here up in Wayne Hopefully we both get a decent jackpot!

So latest Euro gives me 4-6” and latest HRRR gives me 8-10”. I’ll take a middle ground of 6-7” which is the NWS officiall foreacast

Latest HRRR... Cut back big time, esp LI...

Every model is waffling north and south with heaviest axis and totals. Models are not going to help you now. It’s now cast time.

temp dropped 2* at the park. 36* dp 20*. 35* dp 19* here in mt. vernon

Temp dropped 3 degrees in last 2 hours and getting breezy. East wind. Down from 39 to 36

PD special incoming.
Start by about 7 PM here in NENJ
Brine put down on roads.
Temp at 37*
Low level grey clouds moved in and winds are picking up
The smell of snow in the air.

dropped a few degrees..36 feel like is 30. sky getting darker

Easy guys, probably not going to be 10:1 ratios, going to be quite wet with marginal temps... Figure 8 or 9:1 Excited to get a decent amount, but not getting sucked in by these model maps...

snow has officially started

Snowing pretty good in Stillwater Nj 29 degrees, ground now covered that includes the grass and mulch ,not sticking to driveway or sidewalk yet, fine snow flakes coming down fast !

Snow flakes falling here in West Orange. Seems to be starting a little earlier than expected.