NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

+41
Radz
brownie
oldtimer
emokid51783
SkiSeadooJoe
WeatherBob
dsix85
Brookster
weatherwatchermom
Vinnydula
dkodgis
Fededle22
1190ftalt
SnowForest
bobjohnsonforthehall
SENJsnowman
Nyi1058
heehaw453
hyde345
Dtone
SoulSingMG
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
frank 638
track17
amugs
RJB8525
essexcountypete
Grselig
docstox12
algae888
Frank_Wx
GreyBeard
NjWeatherGuy
MattyICE
Dunnzoo
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
aiannone
jmanley32
sroc4
45 posters

Page 3 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 15  Next

Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:49 pm

GFS rains/mixes all the way into the mid-hudson valley lol

aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:51 pm

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Stormt18

RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1994
Join date : 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:05 pm

The difference between this storm and other mixing events we had this year that i caution is, with this particular storm we will not have 850s and 925s going above freezing. Mid and upper levels stay cold. It's the sfc which may go slightly above, but with heavy precip occurring at night, that may mitigate this issue. Plus we have seen all winter how poorly models handle the low level cold air.

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:11 pm

Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:51 pm

aiannone wrote:Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

reasonable call

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by amugs Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:09 pm

This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:24 pm

EPAWA First Call. Tricky for LI lol
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 1b7fd010

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:38 pm

amugs wrote:This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

Thanks Mugs...Feb 7th here it was :Take a look at the 12z GEFS too. Really starting to look nice. Dare I say it....storm signal for the 16th-17th(+/- a day) time frame? Could it be enough to dig a northern s/w into the pattern more so than what we've seen? Preliminary general idea. That is all.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:06 pm

Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:27 pm

aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

Haha yup. He heard your local expertise lol

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:05 pm

Steve D Going very warm lol lolFEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 3a3e2010

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:06 pm

Let’s see if he’s right lol
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 37c4d310

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:33 pm

Steve D fail as usual lol
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 7e804210

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:36 pm

BAM!FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 F9c97710

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:38 pm

Notice initial mixing worries along immediate coast and then the cold rushes in. 528 thickness line drops south of LI. With precip rates that’s 100% snow

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:45 pm

Hi res looking fine
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 B1a9ce10

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 pm

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 86cc5e10

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:52 pm

Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:56 pm

Not complaining just gets real confusing for my small mind

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:58 pm

I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 February_17th

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 February_17th

Love it, Frank.Puts me right square in the 6 inch zone!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:04 pm

track17 wrote:Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

"Coast" is eastern NJ (from Newark on east), NYC, and Long Island. Anyone west or north of there is "N&W"

In my eyes.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:05 pm

HOLY HI RES!!!
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 30099c10
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Bb979610

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:07 pm

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 B26b2410

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:09 pm

Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:10 pm

track17 wrote:Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

Sorry about that. Good explanation from frank though.

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 15  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum