FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

GFS rains/mixes all the way into the mid-hudson valley lol

The difference between this storm and other mixing events we had this year that i caution is, with this particular storm we will not have 850s and 925s going above freezing. Mid and upper levels stay cold. It's the sfc which may go slightly above, but with heavy precip occurring at night, that may mitigate this issue. Plus we have seen all winter how poorly models handle the low level cold air.

Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

aiannone wrote:Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

reasonable call

This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

EPAWA First Call. Tricky for LI lol

amugs wrote:This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

Thanks Mugs...Feb 7th here it was :Take a look at the 12z GEFS too. Really starting to look nice. Dare I say it....storm signal for the 16th-17th(+/- a day) time frame? Could it be enough to dig a northern s/w into the pattern more so than what we've seen? Preliminary general idea. That is all.

Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut

aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

Haha yup. He heard your local expertise lol

Steve D Going very warm lol lol

Let’s see if he’s right lol

Steve D fail as usual lol

BAM!

Notice initial mixing worries along immediate coast and then the cold rushes in. 528 thickness line drops south of LI. With precip rates that’s 100% snow

Hi res looking fine

Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

Not complaining just gets real confusing for my small mind

I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

Frank_Wx wrote:I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

Love it, Frank.Puts me right square in the 6 inch zone!!!

track17 wrote:Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

"Coast" is eastern NJ (from Newark on east), NYC, and Long Island. Anyone west or north of there is "N&W"

In my eyes.

HOLY HI RES!!!

Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

track17 wrote:Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

Sorry about that. Good explanation from frank though.