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Long Range Thread 16.0

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:15 am

@Snow88 wrote:AO is freefalling to -5

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

NAO going down to -2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

If these projections are correct there is no way escape with out at least one MECS. Count on it

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:19 am

CMC Insists
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur65
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:05 pm

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur66
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:07 pm

I want it as bad as the next guy. But like I said, hard to get on board when it’s the CMC and German alone.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:08 pm

12z GFS Ens
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur25
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by crippo84 Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:30 pm

@MattyICE wrote:I want it as bad as the next guy. But like I said, hard to get on board when it’s the CMC and German alone.

Germany is currently leading the Winter Olympics gold medal count with Canada not too far behind them in 4th. Maybe...it's a sign. scratch
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by algae888 Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:26 pm

Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:03 pm

@algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:16 pm

12z Euro:
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur67
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:21 pm

Guess I spoke to soon. Lol. However, we ALL know it’s in the meso/short range this year. Will have to see that hand off in the next day or two.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Grselig Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:52 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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OK This is banter. But it feels nice to have positive vibes here.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:55 pm

Some nice runs today. GFS 18z just shifted north because the northers s/w is stronger a tad slower and a tad deeper. Stay cautiously optimistic. Another day or two of positive trends and we will start a new thread. Winter is not over.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:25 pm

ICON staying consistent with its solution over the past couple days as well
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 09bd7e10
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:09 pm

00z GFS caves

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 D3dce810We
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:11 pm

For shits and giggles lol
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 A5975b10
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:15 am

Not liking by his threat
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:42 am

Have no fear. All storms have shifted nw inside of 48 hours. By Tomorrow night we will all be forecast for rain except extreme nw guys

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:25 am

Model update:

1) GFS:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_pr14
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_pr15

2) EURO:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_59
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_60

3) CMC:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Cmc_pr11
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Cmc_pr12


I normally don't like surface maps, esp this far out, but for now we have a snow to sleet to rain scenario ; maybe back to snow for the coastal plain, with N&W holding on longer and possibly the entire time.  I'm not quite ready to make any specific predictions about this system except to say a few things.  

First the pattern isn't great for this to be a big storm, both up stream and down stream, so temper expectations on what to pick up out of this.  That said this is not impossible for some to get a decent 3-6, maybe 4-8" (my ceiling) if things go perfect.  One of the keys to this is just how strong is the northern vort and does it interact with the southern stream at all. Below is the current best case coldest scenario CMC vs the warmer soln of the GFS.  As you can see that by the CMC by 12z Sat the N vort is interacting with the southern energy.  It rides along the boundary  all the way to the coast to form a stronger more organized surface LP(SLP) exiting the coast to our south.  The key here is the interaction with the southern stream.  This allows the SLP to draw in the colder air.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gem_z511
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gem_z512
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gem_z513
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gem_ms10


Now look at the GFS.  Compared to the CMC by 12z Sat you can see the northern energy and southern energy have not interacted and is not as far south.  As the energy moves eastit remains separated by a small margin, but just enough such that when we reach the coast the SLP struggles to draw in colder air

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_7810
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_z519
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_z520
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Gfs_ms10

In both scenarios we have a cold HP to the north which gives us a fresh injection of cold air ahead of the storm.  However, also in both scenarios, the HP is retreating off the coast because there is no blocking to prevent its escape.  This likely allows the warm air surge ahead of the SLP to occur changing the wind direction from the north to the east and SE.  This is almost identical set up to the past few systems to come our way.  Keep in mind cold air likes to hold tough for longer than is modeled at least on the surface, but probability says that we all start as snow before the coastal plain changes over and areas N&W have the best shot at either not changing over or minimally changing over.  As long as the storm track doesn't come too much farther North, N&W of the city should do ok whereas the coast gets oogatz like it has prev.  However, its also still possible that the storm track ends up a little south of where guidance currently is which helps the coast but limits precip N&W if its not too far south, or passes too far south and misses us all.   All this said we still have a long way to go.  The northern energy does not come onshore for at least 48-72 hrs so....

We Track!   What a Face  In a pattern THAT SUCKS!...FOR NOW.  Long range changes still look good as we end the month and begin March.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:24 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Guest Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

If we’re talking snow to rain IMBY I’d just rather have it be all rain thank you very much.

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:50 am

12z NAM has it too if extrapolated
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur10
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:36 am

I'm not too concerned about suppression with this system as we have a strong War. We also have the Ao and Nao tanking at this time and a slight rise in the PNA towards neutral. All good signs that this storm will hit us in one way or another. We also will have a fresh supply of arctic air however the high pressure system looks to be unfavorable at the moment but with the Nao tanking it could hold its ground more than what models are showing at the moment
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:32 am

12z CMC still a nice hit
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 2 Captur11
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:41 am

The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:58 am

@billg315 wrote:The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.

and I will be in Mystic CT where I'm sure I will experience similar circumstances.

During the first substantial snow December 9th when we had six inches in the HV and 4.6 in NYC I was in Newport RI where they had an inch of snow washed away by the rain and onshore winds that quickly followed. It is my fate this year and I've accepted it.
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