MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Goof us coming around jet dynamics - dual streak is impressive

don't we want that further north? Or in this case is that not a issue.

NO. If anything further south and east.

I understand you cannot give amounts nor even wind numbers but is it possible NYC area could see 60 plus mph gusts? Or even higher? Nam looks that way yes it's 850 level I understand but even half what's shown it's 30 to 40 kts and gusts usually bout 15 kts higher except a few extreme ones mixed in usually. Sorry to harp on wind guys but ur giving me the ultimate of heavy snow and wind possibility. How can one not get excited? And the winds either going to happen or not and better to be prepared than not especially since they are coming from a favorable direction. Well unfavorable if u want no wind. Oh and a side note first two days of work have been good but crazy.

If you're asking ONLY if it's possible; then yes. Higher? I don't think so, unless marginally. I don't blame you one bit for the excitement.....have you not seen my posts? Lmao Idk if I've ever used so many caps before ahaha and mugsy, you know his level of excitement by how hard it s to decipher what he writes, and well, if WeatherBob's most recent post is any indication then I think we are on the right track ahahahaha love ya, mugs!! As for timing, that is still dependent upon which model you look at. Right now, I like a Thursday afternoon/evening start time, worst comes in very early Friday morning through Friday night/early Saturday morning.

so high wind warning criteria type stuff. Yeah at this time way too early to ask.anything more than if it's possible but if u asked me that's the one thing that looks to have remained pretty consistent. Yeah hopefully all our excitement isn't dashed. I need thing for sure nolocal outlet is saying snything. I think if this looks as crazy as it could be then people need to start to know tomorrow. You know bread milk and all. Well I'm go assume I have go work Fri so it's def go b a test of my attendance. Luckily I'm pretty close by and it will look good if I am one of the few that makes it in. They weigh timeliness and attendance very high.

Oh absolutely, in my opinion. That's why I cannot believe for the life of me that they are being so laxadaisical about this and dropped the HWO's last night. If nothing else the wind will be there. But think some big snow too. To not even be mentioning the remote possibility is ridiculous to me, but hey, I'm just a measley peasant ahaha and of course no other outlet is saying anything......Model huggers -_- lol

jmanley32 wrote:Nws has started hwo discussing wind concerns coastal areas and possible sig snow north. The fact that they are now saying this is encouraging. I'm thinking they will be updated to add snow of some type to coast as even 3 inches tied with winds which they say may b a 24 hr deal is pretty serious. It's also funny nws bean town has no hwo but my guess is it's being updated.

My feels right now:

https://giphy.com/gifs/movie-bruce-willis-die-hard-fY4AWE5NkNRhS

This is a big rain storm for most of the members unless your at least 75 miles north west of nyc just not enough cold. But i also note that a few days ago we were see warm and rain so at this point i guess no one knows

NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.

Wait , how did Frank program this so that when you type B*s*on it says Red Sox Suck. I swear to God I typed B*s*on.

So...what are the chances my flight gets out of Laguardia at 7:50 AM on Friday??

Carter bk wrote:This is a big rain storm for most of the members unless your at least 75 miles north west of nyc just not enough cold.  But i also note that a few days ago we were see warm and rain so at this point i guess no one knows

You could very well be right with this. But for the sake of scientific discussion, might I just ask you WHY you think this? And no, this is not meant to be sarcastic in any way. Honest question.

WeatherBob wrote:NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.

you did. It changes it lol. Prolly pretty easy programming. He also did nam back when it was aweful to say not a model. I guess we have since embraced it.

GFS and GEFS are wrong
The primary is not going to ram into that block like that

18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

WeatherBob wrote:NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.

I found out something very interesting about the NWS recently that sheds light onto this whole situation, but you're absolutely right. No question. And even with the NAM's exceptional performance these last few years, they continue to pay it no respect whatsoever. And at best, they will blend the EURO and UKMET in sometimes. Just unreal.

To answer your Bo*ton to Red Sox Suck question, he did this back in 2015 when when they were in the process of break their all-time snow record lmfao we got so sick of it being them it was requested by somebody if we could change their name. Frank, being the great leader that he is, found a way to do this on the forum so that every time that city is mentioned, it reflects our ever-present disdain for it AhahAha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Nws has started hwo discussing wind concerns coastal areas and possible sig snow north. The fact that they are now saying this is encouraging. I'm thinking they will be updated to add snow of some type to coast as even 3 inches tied with winds which they say may b a 24 hr deal is pretty serious. It's also funny nws bean town has no hwo but my guess is it's being updated.

My feels right now:

https://giphy.com/gifs/movie-bruce-willis-die-hard-fY4AWE5NkNRhS

yep lol and they will prolly remove it again and change it at least 10x lol. I think it's haphazard to wait till Thursday no one will be prepared. Not that there's much to prepare for it's a strong noreaster wcs there are a lot power outages.

bloc1357 wrote:So...what are the chances my flight gets out of Laguardia at 7:50 AM on Friday??

I'm no aviation expert, but I'd be willing to bet sub-50% lmao though don't quote me on that, as I'm not a flyer either ahaha

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

wtf!!! Wow I need see this Jesus. How is the rgem with winds? I know nam overdoes precip and at times winds. Screw NYC I'm go cape. BTW where's Alex? He drove out there once and net csntore and was on TV. So cool.

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

I stopped paying attention yesterday, honestly AhahAha it'll come around Friday night lmfao

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......

rb can u confirm this and if so maps?

What about the winds on jersey

RB - don’t want to digress to much off topic and assault you with questions, but I thought the NAM was specifically designed for east coast snowstorms. Also if this is the case, haven’t they updated the programming over the last several years by matching up what was forecasted to what actually happened?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......

rb can u confirm this and if so maps?

I knew you were gonna ask me this lmao

NOTE THIS IS IN KM/H, NOT, I REPEAT, **NOT M/Hr**. I believe the conversion is approximately 1.6 or 1.8 km = 1 mi (per hr), so actual wind speeds would be a little more than half of these by our standard of M/Hr.

WeatherBob wrote:RB - don’t want to digress to much off topic and assault you with questions, but I thought the NAM was specifically designed for east coast snowstorms.  Also if this is the case, haven’t they updated the programming over the last several years by matching up what was forecasted to what actually happened?

Nah man, you're good!! That's why this forum is here!! If nobody asked questions, A) it would be kinda boring, and B) there would many fewer catalysts for further learning lol I do not know this to be the case. It could be, but I haven't heard this before. However, I definitely know they made changes to some of the parameterization schemes a few years back, and also increased the resolution. They also followed these changes through the SREF suite, which is base on the same dynamical core of the NAM (basically the SREFS are the NAM ensemble). I don't exactly know the specifics of these changes, but I can definitely say they drastically improved the performance of both systems. I'd even argue that the NAM has one of the highest threat scores inside of its operational window than any other global model, save maybe the UKMET. Purely my opinion of course, as I don't know what the actual threat/skill scores are haha

Thank you so much Rb. Yea the nam has really killed it these past few yrs

We are most likely looking at sustained 20-25 mph winds with gusts of 40-50 mph. Wind forecasts are often overdone. I think this type of storm will bring winds typical of a strong nor-easter. The gusts may be a bit higher than that on the coast but not much.

billg315 wrote:We are most likely looking at sustained 20-25 mph winds with gusts of 40-50 mph. Wind forecasts are often overdone. I think this type of storm will bring winds typical of a strong nor-easter.  The gusts may be a bit higher than that on the coast but not much.

I think this is a very fair and accurate statement. These types of systems are always gustier versus their sustained component. Very, very difficult to get high sustained wind inland from the coast in a non-tropical system. But the gusts relative to the background state are much more extreme than in tropical systems.

Thanks RB. It’s funny, in my day, 81 to 85, there was just one operational model, that’s it. It was the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh) . It only forecasted out to 48 hrs and had 60 Nautical Mile Grid Points. Talk about winter forecast challenges!

WeatherBob wrote:Thanks RB. It’s funny, in my day, 81 to 85, there was just one operational model, that’s it.  It was the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh) .  It only forecasted out to 48 hrs and had 60 Nautical Mile Grid Points.  Talk about winter forecast challenges!

Were you in the Weather Service, or a private entity? If you don't mind me asking lol and I actually have heard of that model!! Though, admittedly, I don't know much about it haha and yeah, you really had to know your stuff to forecast without the help we have now. I couldn't imagine what that was like, and probably couldn't do it, to be honest.

We are probably getting a bit off topic, (but we're in a brief model lull, so maybe not a bad thing) but I have to say I am always impressed by the challenges meteorologists faced 30-40 years ago (and more) with limited modeling, less data, and even less real-time info. What a difficult job to be able to look at a map, a satellite, some raw data, and not much more and figure out what was going to happen. Of course today the new challenge may be too MUCH modeling and data, i.e., what do you trust and what do your throw out. lol.