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MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:41 pm

HR 66 still.moderate snow in HV , EPA and NNJ above Rt 80

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:42 pm

500mb 700mb and 850 mb stack up and begin occlusion right over LI. Need this further south

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:42 pm

Hr 57 looks kinda similar to last nights 0z at first glance.
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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:42 pm

HR 69 still mod snow for same regions a's 66

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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:44 pm

HR 72 light with moderate pockets of snow still in NNJ, HV and EPA

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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:44 pm

HR 75 same as 72

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:45 pm

Sorry, not buying a track like that so far north. Not with a strong block in place.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:46 pm

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Captur33

LMAO upstate NYS
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:46 pm

ridge to the west was a little flatter

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:47 pm

@aiannone wrote:MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Captur33

LMAO upstate NYS
4 ft, of course, lol some on the board do really well still, me zip. Even the winds are calm cu they are all around the center which is right on top of us.
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:48 pm

Still SOO MUCH VOLATILITY lmao however, aside from the northward shift, I think there were A LOT of positives here.

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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:48 pm

There is still.light snow over the entire NYC metro area at HR 84 with some mod pockets

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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:49 pm

All is not lost for my area on that run, but yeah need it a little further south to really deliver something good.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:51 pm

It does get me into some decent snow during Friday.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:52 pm

Last frame starts to move SW, wow what a crazy trip. The winds start cranking then and its sat early morning wow, talk about a long azzz storm!!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:52 pm

Still a nice hit for the mid Hudson valley, but let's get this more south.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:54 pm

It really is still a stark departure from the gfs (as it has been for the last 24-plus hours). I mean the gfs is still spitting out all rain for me and this has snow all day Friday with heavy snow not far off.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:55 pm

I love how it cuts out just north of me all of LI, CT and east.  West of there and especially upstate get a epic blizzard. I hope this comes south and can bring the cold air with it.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Namcon17

Back side brings the strong winds with it, wouldnt make up for the no snow even with my weirdo love for wind. Sat wow (Yes I know this is 850mb)


MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Namcon18




Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:56 pm

Important to remember we have almost two full days to go, so there will be adjustments and shifts here and there. That I can guarantee. What those shifts are, I have no idea. Lol.
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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:57 pm

It's a coastal bomb. Need it a jog more south and many.on the board will be happy. Close very close this run. H5 looked good stil not great but good.
Imagine if we had a 1040 HP locked in over SE Canada what it's would be. Oh well well.work this out

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Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:58 pm

To say that the upper level lows will cut-off exactly where it is shown on this run, is pretty much a guess by the models at this point. A little perturbation in the mean flow or movement of the system coupled with the upper dynamics can change the actual cut off placements by at least 30 or 40 miles in the next 48 hours. More watching to come with this storm
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I love how it cuts out just north of me all of LI, CT and east.  West of there and especially upstate get a epic blizzard. I hope this comes south and can bring the cold air with it.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Namcon17

Back side brings the strong winds with it, wouldnt make up for the no snow even with my weirdo love for wind. Sat wow (Yes I know this is 850mb)

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Namcon18



I went from 15 inches on the last run to 5 on this one. I'm not concerned with either, tomorrow night as things adjust for another 24 hours I'll be concerned if I see a drop off like that.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:03 pm

I’ll say this: the NWS and TV Mets should at least begin acknowledging the word “snow” with this. Even if that run pans out verbatim a lot of this region will see snow on the ground Friday morning and as of earlier this evening everyone I know was telling me “I heard it’s just going to be rain.” A little shift south and a lot of people will be caught off guard with little warning.
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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:11 pm

JB calling for like I said earlier a blend of the EURO and NAM and saying a 6 -10" swath for this coastal bomb in the EPA, HV, Western NY NWNJ regions with about 1-3 for NYC and double that in the burb's 3-6".
Bill  this is the same old same old. PeopLe at work are like what snow but its 55* out. Doesn't matter this time of year. This beast and it will be a beast will make its ownn cold air that is 1 mIle up and with lift and dynamics easily pull this down in very short time

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Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:17 pm

@aiannone wrote:MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 8 Captur33

LMAO upstate NYS

Agree with the flatter ridge Scott.  Just don’t see enough of a cold air source. I know upper air lows and bombs bring their own cold but I just don’t see it here.  This map other than the ridiculous 24-36” totals in the finger lakes looks more reasonable.  Sorry to say folks.  I’m still holding out hope but......

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