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MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:15 am

rb924119 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Sorry LI, the retrograde west is not a friend of LI.

So 3-9” from Baltimore to Staten Island right up 95. Then almost nothing from LI through southern Mass.  then 6-8” central Mass?  I want some of what the NAM Is smoking.  If this verifies I’m going out in public all weekend naked

Some of the inconsistencies in southern New England are caused by the effects of elevation, Syo. But the main east-west gradient makes perfect sense given the thermal structure of the system. Don't forget, there is going to be warm air out front of this thing, and even once the mid-levels close off, the eastern half will still be warm, so some warm advection from east to west will occur instead of north to south like we typically see. It's just a function of the background state and how wrapped up this system will become. Sandy was a great example of this; 3-4' of snow in the Virginias while we were 50° and rain. That system was so wrapped there was warm air wrapping into the northwestern quadrant all the way from the southern quadrant, with cold air driving in on the southwestern flank. Same deal here.

Ok. When I see it I’ll believe it

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:19 am

Syo, just ask CP about Feb 2010. Christmas 2002. Many storms are like this. It happens to the Cape literally all the time lol we just aren't lucky enough to have it as frequently here because we are sometimes too far west to get the best results of the evolution.

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:19 am

The NAM continues to be the only model even close to making sense. So I continue to think it is closest to the actual solution here. This may not be a LI event sorry to say but most of New Jersey is going to do well here I think. It is interesting that the NAM has pushed back the timing of the changeover to snow. In runs earlier this week it showed New Jersey going to snow between 1 and 4 a.m. Now it looks like it doesn't go to snow until late morning - but continues heavy in the afternoon.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:23 am

500 on rgem looks like NAM.  Forget the thermal profile here.  While its likely rain at the start the main N energy comes off the coast around the Delmarva and is digging.  Love this look

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 13 Rgem_u11

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:25 am

sroc4 wrote:500 loks like NAM.  Forget the thermal profile here

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 13 Rgem_u11

Think this is even sexier than the NAM. Slightly further south with the closed low, and deeper. I won't use the "M" word, as that is reserved for special people on special occasions, but I think it's worthy of it lmao

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:26 am

On that run, looks like NYC will be a battleground for 2 to 4 in or 6 to 8 inches. That will depend on how far the surface low actually retrogrades.
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:27 am

Wow RB, what dynamics!
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:28 am

WeatherBob wrote:On that run, looks like NYC will be a battleground for 2 to 4 in or 6 to 8 inches.  That will depend on how far the surface low actually retrogrades.

NAM, or RGEM? RGEM would easily bring warning-criteria snows into the NYC metro.

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:30 am

I was talking the NAM, this low has the potential to go to 970 mb I would think
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:36 am

You gotta love Delaware, when a potent upper system comes off the coast there, usually a good storm in our area, either being rain or snow!
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:41 am

I would think all the models agree that the upper level system will be coming off the southern Delaware coast somewhere, even the horrible GFS, RB
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:42 am

WeatherBob wrote:You gotta love Delaware, when a potent upper system comes off the coast there, usually a good storm in our area,  either being rain or snow!

Just as you've been pointing out the last couple days. That could be perfect placement for the upper low here.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:49 am

Oh gfs. lol. for the love of all that is holy. Is it still chasing convection? Has the surface low way east, almost out to sea east of cape cod. Has the 850 temps below freezing but raining over NJ. Yet it does have the H5 low positioned right over the Delmarva at hour 51
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:51 am

AND THE GFS CAVES PEEPS!!!!!! HUGEEEEEE CHANGES ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS!!!! IT STILL AINT PERFECT BUT BY GOD IT LOOKS TO BE CAVING TO THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:51 am

Yes billg, we will see if the models look similar on tmrw mornings run. In any event, I do feel more confident now that we will see some type of blizzard like conditions Fri afternoon and eve in Jersey and the LHV. The question will be just how much snow actually falls.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:55 am

rb, I assume what you like about the GFS is the positioning of the H5 low (which looks good to me) and the upper level temps (which also have improved)? The surface level still seems a little messed up to me, but I'm trying to focus on the upper levels right now per you and Bob's guidance.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:57 am

Well interesting model runs today especially from the nam. I don't think we're going to have a final solution until very close in. If you look at the 3K nam you will see that North Central New Jersey has a foot of snow with very little to its West and East. It's going to come down to where the heavy banding sets up where the low pressure system closes off anyone within 50 miles of the snow Maps put on today's models have a chance the other thing to note as was in that National Weather Service discussion this morning if it falls during the daylight in March marginal temperatures may be hard to stick and also this may be a case where it snows during heavier precipitation and rains when it lightens up.
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:59 am

Algae- good point!
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:06 am

Anyone have a GFS snow map?
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:07 am

algae888 wrote:Well interesting model runs today especially from the nam. I don't think we're going to have a final solution until very close in. If you look at the 3K nam you will see that North Central New Jersey has a foot of snow with very little to its West and East. It's going to come down to where the heavy banding sets up where the low pressure system closes off anyone within 50 miles of the snow Maps put on today's models have a chance the other thing to note as was in that National Weather Service discussion this morning if it falls during the daylight in March marginal temperatures may be hard to stick and also this may be a case where it snows during heavier precipitation and rains when it lightens up.

Excellent point. That was one reason I mentioned above the changeover time from rain to snow. If it is snowing before dawn I think it starts sticking more easily. But if it doesn't go to snow until midday, at this time of year it can be hard to get it to stick in daylight, unless its really heavy or the ground is really cold. The ground will not be really cold, soooo that could be a problem.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:10 am

WeatherBob wrote:Anyone have a GFS snow map?

While showing nearly 2" of precipitation across the region, the gfs shows virtually no snow accumulation in this area. most accumulation in western New York.
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:11 am

It could be a real slop feast with heavy snow and wind but not a lot accumulation on the ground. It might get plastered to trees and buildings though. We will see.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:12 am

I hate to ask what about NYC in the Bronx area

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:14 am

Well , all we need is surface temps to get to 33 or so and we will get something on the ground. NYC itself might only have wet roads with maybe 800 ft to 1000 ft skyscrapers getting snow on the tops.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:17 am

rb924119 wrote:AND THE GFS CAVES PEEPS!!!!!! HUGEEEEEE CHANGES ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS!!!! IT STILL AINT PERFECT BUT BY GOD IT LOOKS TO BE CAVING TO THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just had a chance to look. H5 looked phenomenal. I could careless at what the snow map looked like. Euro holds on the evolution of H5 like NAM Rgem and GFS everyone is still in business for something

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:19 am

Frank 638- this is still a fluid situation.  We have to wait till tmrw mornings model runs to pinpoint specifics better. This is not a standard winter storm with cold air advection, low coming from the south, upper level energy energizing it.  I think u get the picture.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:20 am

GREAT read via @crankywxguy on Twitter (he's one of the best IMO) — we're in for a doozy of a storm, on many fronts:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e022818.htm
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