MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Looks like ugatz for LI lol

TheAresian wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ARESIAN YOU GOT YOUR EARS ON, BUD????? HERE'S ONE SECS, WITH MULTIPLE MORE TO FOLLOW!!!!! IT'S ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER MY FRIEND, PICK YOUR TOWEL BACK UP AND WIPE YOUR FACE, BECAUSE WE GOT AN END GAME TO FINISH THIS SEASON!!!!!

I've got my ears on, but I'm cleaning and recleaning them because I'd swear I'm hearing you say that multiple SECS type storms are going to reach far enough inland to affect me. I'm in no way questioning your knowledge, but hearing it's even possible has me a bit taken aback.

Well obviously it's far from certain, BUT THIS IS WHY YOU CANNOT JUST SIMPLY WRITE THE REST OF THIS SEASON OFF. YOU HAVE TO TRUST THE PROCESS, NOT JUST BLINDLY FOLLOW MAPS. This is what so many of us have been stressing for several weeks now. Models are not gospel; there's so much more to forecasting than just looking at a map. This type of pattern is an atmospheric time bomb and the match has just been lit. Let the fuse be lit and let the process continue because models cannot handle the anomalies and the volume of intricacies of these types patterns like human intuition can. So when I say that there are "multiple chances at SECS", I MEAN IT, regardless of what the models show right now. As does every other met on here and elsewhere. Again, trust the process, my friend. Does it always work out in your back yard? No. But it at the very least GIVES YOU THE CHANCE.

aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

Only if you take snow map verbatim Alex. Remember its an ensemble in. Not the best resolution. Every single member has the MSLP between 970-988mb. There are a few in the 960's. Tranfer comes off the Delmarva and passes south of LI

sroc4 wrote:EPS MSLP transfer, placement and intensity looks great!

MUSIC. TO. MY. EARS.

jmanley32 wrote:Rb what do einds look like on 12z euro? It looks more like 3 to 6 NYC no? Where did u get 8 to 12? Liking what I'm hearing though.

Aw shoot, Jman!! Totally meant to post those for you and I forgot lol coming up!!

Some heavy hitters in there.

sroc4 wrote:Some heavy hitters in there.  

Vs the EPS mean from 12z two days ago.

aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

I wouldn't say that. Last night two NAM runs had LI going over to snow. If the secondary sets up shop just S and E of LI and bombs out, it could definitely pull in enough cold air, especially at the upper levels to produce snow over Long Island.

That said I do remember well a couple storms earlier this year where LI cashed in and us folks further west got a little bit of the shaft. Soooo, sometimes things even out. lol. Anyway, I hear someone out there has a big exam to study for, so if it has to miss you -- maybe this isn't the worst one to have miss.

Here you go Jman:

EURO 900 hPa sustained wind speeds, in knots, for the windiest frame. Since this is 900 hPa and on the northwestern side where we get our wind events to mix down to the surface, I would say 90% of this mixes down, maybe close to 100% AT TIMES:



Keep in mind, this has a lot of westward correction to undergo at the lower levels, so in theory, these should go up, though by how much, I cannot say.

Ok, time to whip the NAM back into line after its early morning tantrum. lol. Lets go 18z.

rb924119 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:omg the EURO just changed the game, piggybacking on the UKMET!

Snow map please.

This is the second time the euro has drawn a snow map, the first time was about four days ago, with the rain snow line for this storm, that looks identical to the February 25 26th 2010 storm. Identical of course if you took the snow amounts and times them by three. I know you said the dynamics are not even close between the two and I believe you, but that is one part of this threat that I still find interesting.

billg315 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

I wouldn't say that. Last night two NAM runs had LI going over to snow. If the secondary sets up shop just S and E of LI and bombs out, it could definitely pull in enough cold air, especially at the upper levels to produce snow over Long Island.

That said I do remember well a couple storms earlier this year where LI cashed in and us folks further west got a little bit of the shaft. Soooo, sometimes things even out. lol. Anyway, I hear someone out there has a big exam to study for, so if it has to miss you -- maybe this isn't the worst one to have miss.

SHHHHHH lol. I'll take it as long as it's gone by saturday morning!

Bernie RAIN-O

"The focus for snow Fri is not with the sfc low,it's with the placement/strength of the upper low. With the exception of the higher terrain in NY/PA this will be mostly rain. How, just N of the upper low there will be a band of heavy,wet snow.ECMWF 500 mb fri am."

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie RAIN-O

"The focus for snow Fri is not with the sfc low,it's with the placement/strength of the upper low. With the exception of the higher terrain in NY/PA this will be mostly rain. How, just N of the upper low there will be a band of heavy,wet snow.ECMWF 500 mb fri am."

I don't disagree with this. If you recall, somebody had asked me earlier about the coastal plain, and I felt that the ceiling ratio of snow versus rain was 50-50. 50% rain on the front end that goes to the final 50% of precipitation in the form of snow on the back end. I also said that the overall QPF would be much more than 1", with in excess of 2" probable. Given the max 50-50 ratio of rain versus snow, you just saw the results on the EURO. So while it may technically be "mostly rain" by amounts, that doesn't mean that a significant snowfall should be written off, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78. Also, it is the H5 energy that holds the key for the snow part of it, but the placement, intensity, and timing of the secondary development will help dictate how soon the change can occur in relation to the positioning of the H5 energy. The stronger and earlier that secondary develops, the faster the lower levels will cool in advance of the brunt mid-level dynamics, thus allowing more QPF to fall as snow and start the pre-accumulation processes earlier (cooling the column at the lower levels, cooling the ground, etc.).

Yea when Bernie talks I listen, he is very good like the people on this site!! Will see.

I think we may see another big NAM run here. H5 looks like 06z again. We'll see.

Too much interaction too soon on this run. Dang. Still a ton of volatility to this system, though, and it could be an over correction to start swinging the other way again. Gonna still see how this run plays out though.

Late to the party...

This seems to come down to the primary low. If this low cuts north it will warm our mid-levels so by the time the secondary takes over we have to wait for cold air to spread into the mid and lower levels. Whereas, a primary that does not cut will leave many people seeing an all snow or brief rain to all snow event.

OMG THE NAM STILL GOES NUCLEAR!!!!! CCB BANDING FOR THE WIN!!!!!!

18z NAM

Welcome back NAM. Hope you got that 12z stuff out of your system this morning. lol

WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

looks like the Hudson valley might do well.

rb924119 wrote:WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

I must see maps.

I'm a little distracted on OTI today, some weird goings on there.

rb924119 wrote:WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

rb, if this pans out the way we've been thinking since yesterday on the Long Range you will be long heralded as one of the first to preach it. I just want credit as one of your primary disciples. lol

rb924119 wrote:Here you go Jman:

EURO 900 hPa sustained wind speeds, in knots, for the windiest frame. Since this is 900 hPa and on the northwestern side where we get our wind events to mix down to the surface, I would say 90% of this mixes down, maybe close to 100% AT TIMES:



Keep in mind, this has a lot of westward correction to undergo at the lower levels, so in theory, these should go up, though by how much, I cannot say.

do you have the gust map for surface? Lol. Jeeze those are sustained 50 mph wow could we serioysly possibly see hurricane gusts?

lmao