Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here you go Jman:

EURO 900 hPa sustained wind speeds, in knots, for the windiest frame. Since this is 900 hPa and on the northwestern side where we get our wind events to mix down to the surface, I would say 90% of this mixes down, maybe close to 100% AT TIMES:

Keep in mind, this has a lot of westward correction to undergo at the lower levels, so in theory, these should go up, though by how much, I cannot say.

do you have the gust map for surface? Lol. Jeeze those are sustained 50 mph wow could we serioysly possibly see hurricane gusts?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:57 pm

lmao

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 4 1ad2e610

by **bloc1357** Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:59 pm

Random question here...What are the chances getting out on a flight out of Laguardia @ 8 AM friday morning??

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:00 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:lmao

soul if that happens u and I can meet up Fri Eve to drown our sorrows at local bar. 35 plus in mass!

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:02 pm

IN EVERY LOCATION ADD 2-4" AT LEAST TO 12K TOTALS BASIS 3K NAM. CHANGE OVER OCCURS NOTICEABLY EARLIER. #DYNAMICS

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:lmao

soul if that happens u and I can meet up Fri Eve to drown our sorrows at local bar. 35 plus in mass!

Haha, or we can drive 40 miles north of my house and go sledding in that 14" snowfall! Laughing

by **WeatherBob** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:03 pm

Wow, a 3 footer for MA. The banding seems to start over NNJ Friday morning and last until the eve sometime. Now the key is , where does the 500 mb and 700 mb set up ultimately. As you all can see , 50 miles to the south is tremendous!

by **billg315** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:lmao

soul if that happens u and I can meet up Fri Eve to drown our sorrows at local bar. 35 plus in mass!

trends my friends; trends. lol. remember a day ago this was all rain in some of these areas now forecast to get several inches of snow.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:04 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:lmao

That 20 is over your place in Fishkill RB, I'm right between the 14 and the 18.

We shall see I'll take half that and be happy.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:05 pm

The name literally stalls and I know we all focused on snow but rb 850 900mb winds sustained are 64 kts plus omg. Easily 75 mph plus gusts if taken verbatim and as u said they are coming from the right direction. What's note in same they last from hr 69 and well past hr 84 if extrapolated out. Dear lord and that snow map I hope ma gets all rain.

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:06 pm

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 4 Screen23

Equates to about what I said earlier, Jman.

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The name literally stalls and I know we all focused on snow but rb 850 900mb winds sustained are 64 kts plus omg. Easily 75 mph plus gusts if taken verbatim and as u said they are coming from the right direction. What's note in same they last from hr 69 and well past hr 84 if extrapolated out. Dear lord and that snow map I hope ma gets all rain.

Yeah, I haven't looked specifically at the NAM, but I can tell you it would be a much windier event than the EURO lmao under my assumptions, I think the NAM should be weighted 65-35 with the EURO right now with regard to the overall evolution, so by that, I think the threat of high winds, even by the NWS percentile definition, is "likely".

by **RJB8525** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:13 pm

NWS made an adjustment for my area, now including the word snow lol

Friday: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10am. High near 40. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:22 pm

If I believed the gfs and euro yesterday, this would be an all rain event for me, with no snow anywhere near me. As I said yesterday, those solutions didn't make a lot of sense given the setup. The NAM, pretty consistently since last night (with a brief hiccup this morning) has me going over to snow between 1 and 4 a.m. on Friday and snowing through midday. It has my surface temp near freezing at daybreak and no issues at the 850 level. To boot it has major accumulations just 20-30 miles north of me. With 48 hours to go until this storm really figures out what it wants to do, I'll take it.

by **jimv45** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:24 pm

Man that 20 right over my house bring it on!!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:

Equates to about what I said earlier, Jman.

how is the gusts lower than the sustained there's a map on wxbell called max wind gusts accumulated. But I think march may warrant me renew my subscription for the he month Wink

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:

Equates to about what I said earlier, Jman.
how is the gusts lower than the sustained there's a map on wxbell called max wind gusts accumulated. But I think march may warrant me renew my subscription for the he month

Don't forget, Jman, this is at the surface. The other was at 900 hPa, several hundred feet above the surface with reduced friction. It stands to reason that the model would print out significantly reduces wind speeds, especially over the land. Notice how they are about equal over the open water.

by **algae888** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The name literally stalls and I know we all focused on snow but rb 850 900mb winds sustained are 64 kts plus omg. Easily 75 mph plus gusts if taken verbatim and as u said they are coming from the right direction. What's note in same they last from hr 69 and well past hr 84 if extrapolated out. Dear lord and that snow map I hope ma gets all rain.

Jon that's the one thing that was perplexing to me that the models seem to move it out too quickly to the east with the blocking place you would think that it would just sit and spin for a while off the coast weather South of us or north of us and that would throw back moisture into the deepening low and colder air with Dynamics which should produce a significant amount of snow on the back end it looked like the models are always chasing convection when it comes to East Coast storms and do not know where to place the low pressure center I don't believe it's going to wobble a hundred miles every 6 hours there should be one Focus low pressure center just sitting in spinning we shall see great Trends today

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:32 pm

And, for those at are curious, if you took the NAM's surface depiction and used the EURO's mid- and upper-level evolution, those 30" totals would span the northern half of our forecast area. That is how absurdly close we are right now. Not saying that is going to happen or what I expect, but I'm not saying it isn't a solution that's on the table, and think we trend closer to that idea than what we saw prior to today's runs (aside from the NAM) lol Given this, the 3K NAM I think is hinting at this stark possibility. Just saying' Wink

by **WeatherBob** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:38 pm

RB - what do you mean by “our” forcast area? Do you mean the NYC forecast area or where you are from?

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:41 pm

WeatherBob wrote:RB - what do you mean by “our” forcast area? Do you mean the NYC forecast area or where you are from?

Our forum forecast/member area lol

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:45 pm

So rb southern Westchester has a shot at 12plus maybe sig higher?

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:47 pm

billg315 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

rb, if this pans out the way we've been thinking since yesterday on the Long Range you will be long heralded as one of the first to preach it. I just want credit as one of your primary disciples. lol

Hahaha I've been following this system for much longer than just since yesterday, but yesterday I only broke my silence in our private weather community. That said, there are others who have been just as proactive about this system from what I've been able to gather in my short return since my hiatus, and probably at a greater lead time than even I have been watching this period. They are forecasters that mainly reside on other forums, but deserve the credit nonetheless. Even members on here have probably made mention of this period long before I came back off the self-imposed I.R., I might have just been more openly vocal about it in recent days lol so they all deserve the credit much more than me, and I shall pass your reverence on to them lmao But I truly appreciate the sentiments!!! Besides, you have been on this too, so kudos to you as well!!

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So rb southern Westchester has a shot at 12plus maybe sig higher?

Even 6" of heavy wet snow, Jman. I'm not sure we wanna root for it. This storm has widespread power outages written allllll over it.

by **amugs** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:56 pm

Busy all day and catching up here but following the models.mobile so... Rb awesome work my.man. As has been stats and I know there were notice were naysayers and throwing the towel in on this but the PATTERN WILL DICTATE THE OUTCOME - this is my new phrase of choice LOL.
We have all the players on the field literally they are over land and the US and are being digested by the models. The Good For Shit model is just horrible withered complex set up with some much latent heat flying around the atmosphere. The NAM 's as BIllinois said will lead the way again.
The confluence and consolidation of the H5 over the GL and NE with the jet streak modifying it's position to much more favorable position will be an alarm 2011 type of rain to a heavy wet snow. N&W of NYC metro, Stixswx, EpA and HV should jackpot bigly.
As I said before I am riding the Euro not surface wise but H5 along with the NAMs here. The surface will respond to a bombing out LP that will get stuck and retrograde. Winds, coastal flooding of moderate type, power outages and heavy white gold will be in order.
I ll be on more tonight after my meeting at school.

by **rb924119** Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So rb southern Westchester has a shot at 12plus maybe sig higher?

Westchester is so hard because it literally cuts in half ALL THE TIME lmao I don't want to put any hard numbers out because I do not have the adequate information to make prediction that I'm comfortable with or proud of, but I am thinking the following probabilities right now:

0"-T: 5% (or less)
T-6": 40%
6-12": 40%
12"+: 15%

So, while small, it is certainly a non-zero chance of seeing more than a foot in my opinion as things stand now.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:01 pm

rb...don't usually ask mby..does central jersey and the coast see anything?...Lee G...said this was a higher elevation storm...out all day...came home to 4 pages..head spinning? Smile

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