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March 2nd Nor'easter Update

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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:11 pm

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 5 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh45-48.gif.2c975529328f2bfc328be1a7e6bd4ca9

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:13 pm

rgem is a heavy rain and windstorm.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:14 pm

@amugs wrote:March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 5 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh45-48.gif.2c975529328f2bfc328be1a7e6bd4ca9
does that ALLL have to come through the area before it ends so those 20+ totals will crash into coast too? All I care about is the bright reds and yellow over beantown haha!!!
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Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:22 pm

I think there might be a lot of people surprised with this storm except for the people that come on this site because no one is really talking about this except the rain and wind part.

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Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:24 pm

Lee has 1-3” for our area. 3-6” far NW
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Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:26 pm

Lee could be to low on this will see.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:28 pm

Lee Goldberg going with 1-3 inches NYC and immediate suburbs with 3-6 inches in a line from I-287 north and west. He did say he's not very confident with forecast amounts though and could be adjusted upwards.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:36 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg going with 1-3 inches NYC  and immediate suburbs with 3-6 inches in a line from I-287 north and west. He did say he's not very confident with forecast amounts though and could be adjusted upwards.
cool. And could be upwards a lot hoping 00z runs hold!
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Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:39 pm

I'm sorry to let you down, team :'( but I have full confidence you guys can carry on just fine without me Very Happy

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Post by algae888 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 5 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh45-48.gif.2c975529328f2bfc328be1a7e6bd4ca9
does that ALLL have to come through the area before it ends so those 20+ totals will crash into coast too? All I care about is the bright reds and yellow over beantown haha!!!
yes jon probably another 6 hours of snow. you can see the low is still strengthening and is starting to shift south. the snow map would look very similar to the nam
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Post by algae888 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:16 pm

I mentioned a few days ago Christmas day in the early 2000s that's what this setup reminds me of well that was December 25th 2002 rained all day switched over to snow between 3 and 4 p.m. ended up with close to a foot in my backyard the pine trees look like they were ready to break one of my favorite storms of all time and my top analog for this storm very marginal temps to work with storm exploded just east of Long Island
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Post by deadrabbit79 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:41 pm

Doesnt seem like much excitement in here right now

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:05 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 5 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh45-48.gif.2c975529328f2bfc328be1a7e6bd4ca9
does that ALLL have to come through the area before it ends so those 20+ totals will crash into coast too? All I care about is the bright reds and yellow over beantown haha!!!
yes jon probably another 6 hours of snow. you can see the low is still strengthening and is starting to shift south. the snow map would look very similar to the nam
humminah humminah lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:07 pm

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Doesnt seem like much excitement in here right now
huh ya where everyone go? Ray leaves and it goes dead lol. Well nothing new till nam shortly after 9. Prolly why.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:11 pm

Yes, this is the in-between model lull. lol
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Post by essexcountypete on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:19 pm

@billg315 wrote:Yes, this is the in-between model lull. lol

Yup, they'll all be back for the late evening runs.

We should play intermission music in the meantime.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:25 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Yes, this is the in-between model lull. lol

Yup, they'll all be back for the late evening runs.

We should play intermission music in the meantime.
ha ha...that thought ran thru my mind as well..Smile
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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:35 pm

Or there should be other intermission entertainment like in a hockey game or halftime of a football game. Maybe frisbee dogs, or mites on ice, or a snowman shuffle.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:36 pm

Lol so many comedians on here. Half reason I come look is to get a good laugh from some the jokes u all post.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:37 pm

@billg315 wrote:Or there should be other intermission entertainment like in a hockey game or halftime of a football game. Maybe frisbee dogs, or mites on ice, or a snowman shuffle.
or a slide show of every euro fantasy snow map the past 5 yrs lol
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Post by crippo84 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:38 pm

Everybody get a drink or two in your system while it's quiet. It'll make great model runs that much more enjoyable or dull the pain of bad model runs. We all know the anticipation is building.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:40 pm

It is interesting to note how 12 hours ago all the tv/radio mets were calling this a rain only event and now they are working snow references into their forecasts. They're sort of slow-walking this toward the NAM solution (albeit maybe not the NAM snowfall totals which may be overdone).
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Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@deadrabbit79 wrote:Doesnt seem like much excitement in here right now
huh ya where everyone go? Ray leaves and it goes dead lol. Well nothing new till nam shortly after 9. Prolly why.

I'm trying to follow along as much as I can lol my prediction for 00z suite is that we see 21z SREFs jump significantly to look like the NAM from today, but I think overall we won't see much change. Maybe a very subtle shift here or there, but I think we might be locking in. I do. Pattern supports this type of evolution, and I standby my initial thoughts for now Smile keep up the great work gang!!

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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:42 pm

While we wait, Too bad this isn't already in the air, maybe for next winter

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/goes-s-weather-satellite-to-launch-thursday-afternoon-amid-dry-weather/70004275

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:44 pm

@crippo84 wrote:Everybody get a drink or two in your system while it's quiet. It'll make great model runs that much more enjoyable or dull the pain of bad model runs. We all know the anticipation is building.

Already did that, just came back from the local Irish pub!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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