Re: March 2nd Nor'easter Update

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote: High Wind Warning now up for Southern Jersey and Philly metro for gusts to SEVENTY mph.

then we are next soul as Philly much further inland. Honestly I do not know what they ate waiting for hgh eind warnings up for massive area to the south end east. In between as seen in the models us in the same strip of wind.

by SPM12 Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:37 pm

I don't normally post - just lurk - but I see others have commented that Upton is still sticking with the little to no snow scenario - what's up with that????? cat

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:Bernie Rayno's latest Video:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqxoLbVRDMKv

Interesting. One of his most difficult forecasts. NYC and get all rain. NYC can get 6 inches. But he thinks there will be enough cold.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote: High Wind Warning now up for Southern Jersey and Philly metro for gusts to SEVENTY mph.
then we are next soul as Philly much further inland. Honestly I do not know what they ate waiting for hgh eind warnings up for massive area to the south end east. In between as seen in the models us in the same strip of wind.

I don't know, Jman. I don't trust it. NWS DC/BALT just put out a special graphic for the "strongest wind storm in recent history" for that area, calling for 60-70 mph winds. If you look at the NAM wind guidance, less wind is depicted for our area than them and Beantown.

by **mikeypizano** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:46 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Soul I think that map may be low. The hww for eastern areas is 70 mph. I think we reach hww criteria. Small changes could also greatly change where highest winds are.

Jerez you and your wind fetish............I meant obsession This storm looks likely to provide me with my firewood for next winter. Tons of trees coming down with the soft ground. I have my chainsaw sharpened and ready.

I only got 1 chain thats sharp... I hope I don't need mine...

I got my Husky 395xp that I bought last summer on standby, and I couldn't be more excited to have to possibly bring it with me to cut my way into work tomorrow afternoon!!!! An East Coast Axe Man!!!! Still breaking it in, though, so I can't run it full-throttle yet - need about another five hours of run time first lol But every little bit helps ahahaha

Stihl MS250 here, Was using it past 2 days. One of my chains is pretty bad from hitting rocks and i really dulled one out on Tuesday when I was cutting a trail for someone and some stuff was near a metal chainlink fence... If you ever want to talk saws, text me anytime.

Oh Mikey, as a seasoned saw vet you should know better than to stone your chain!!!! Smh, man lol JK!! 250 is a great saw; not too big, but just big enough for most jobs and still versatile enough to be up in a tree with.

The sad part is I do know better... Was trying to cut some stumps down at ground level like a moron. I did sharpen all my chains and prepped snow blowers and generator.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:52 pm

As much as I hate this God forsaken model, the HRRR changes NYC to snow around 12z/7am with very much improved dynamics resulting from a more tucked system. What does it mean?? Warning-criteria snowfall for NYC Metro would likely result if extrapolated. AND HEREEEEEEE WEEEEEE GOOOOOOOOOOO

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:As much as I hate this God forsaken model, the HRRR changes NYC to snow around 12z/7am with very much improved dynamics resulting from a more tucked system. What does it mean?? Warning-criteria snowfall for NYC Metro would likely result if extrapolated. AND HEREEEEEEE WEEEEEE GOOOOOOOOOOO

What are your current thoughts on wind and flooding. How concerned should we be? Immediate coast and more inland.

by **aiannone** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:00 pm

18z NAM is very warm. Mid and upper levels still flooded and inundated with warm air at 7am tmw

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:04 pm

Wow, even Rayno is confused at all the models.Toss a coin, heads we get snow, tails we get rain.Coming up to nowcast time.I hate these Miller B situations almost as much as clippers.At this point, give me 12 inches or all rain, I'm sick of these two for a nickle 3 to 6 inch snow events we have been having up here all winter.All or nothing!

by **mikeypizano** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:06 pm

Rain starting here in Yatesville, PA

by **Grselig** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:10 pm

docstox12 wrote:Wow, even Rayno is confused at all the models.Toss a coin, heads we get snow, tails we get rain.Coming up to nowcast time.I hate these Miller B situations almost as much as clippers.At this point, give me 12 inches or all rain, I'm sick of these two for a nickle 3 to 6 inch snow events we have been having up here all winter.All or nothing!

I will take 6 gladly on the tail end. It’s the slush and mixed bag garbage that i hate

by DAYBLAZER Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:13 pm

I'm pretty much ready to nowcast I think. I know the 18z NAM is warmer but at this point...are the models really going to tell us anything new? It seems like consensus is growing that this is a true toss-up situation.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:13 pm

aiannone wrote:18z NAM is very warm. Mid and upper levels still flooded and inundated with warm air at 7am tmw

Give it time. Patience. You need to let the dynamics establish. Case in point, all of NJ sees warning snows this run.

by Guest Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:18 pm

I was just out back doing storm preps for 40 minutes in short sleeves. 60 degrees and a light HUMID south breeze off the ocean. You can smell it. I trust you rob but man I don’t see it

by Carter bk Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:19 pm

Accuweather for brooklyn 11210 inow has above 6" at 2 percent going up

by **aiannone** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:20 pm

317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST
Saturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited
visibilities will make travel difficult.

by Guest Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:25 pm

My parent house under a WSWARNING in northwestern Ulster. The house is at about 1400’

on Hollow, Hunter,
Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, and Sundown
1229 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to
18 inches, with localized amounts up to 24 inches, are
expected.

* WHERE...Schoharie, Western Albany, Western Greene and Western
Ulster Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible, including during the morning and evening commute on
Friday. Tree branches could fall due to weight of the heavy wet
snow and increasing winds resulting in power outages. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:30 pm

There you go, Jman ;-)

Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST
Saturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited
visibilities will make travel difficult.

by **aiannone** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:31 pm

no warnings for NYC metro

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:32 pm

Hey Syo, check out the 3K NAM Crapola, mr. snow capital sitting with 13.1" Wink

by **Snow88** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:33 pm

aiannone wrote:18z NAM is very warm. Mid and upper levels still flooded and inundated with warm air at 7am tmw

Not going to happen

That's either sleet or snow

by **Snow88** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:33 pm

3k Nam snowmap I just saw has around 2 inches for NYC and alot more in LI and central NJ

by **aiannone** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:34 pm

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:Hey Syo, check out the 3K NAM Ku-cher-a, mr. snow capital sitting with 13.1"

by **jimv45** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:34 pm

Rb Albany weather service has me at 1-3 like GFS I guess.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:38 pm

Soul hgh wind warning issued 11am tomorrow till 6am sat gusts to 60 mph wow that's long duration.

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Soul hgh wind warning issued 11am tomorrow till 6am sat gusts to 60 mph wow that's long duration.

CONED,LIPA,JCPL PSE&G are all on standby hopefully lol

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