March 2nd Nor'easter Update

essexcountypete wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:We have wind blown slush..

Just letting that sink in. Words I've never really considered togther...wind blown slush.

Didn't even know this was possible ahaha Does that make it wushy outside? Or windshy?? Slundy, perhaps? What about slindy??

WeatherBob wrote:I love you guys on here but can we just go into spring so we can be fresh for next winter?  This storm really wore my out. Wow , what a trip this storm was !

BLASPHEMY!!!!! I VOTE THREE DAYS BANNISHMENT OVER IN OTI SANITARIUM FOR THIS!!!!! It was pretty wild, though, I cannot lie haha definitely fun!!! I just wish I could have enjoyed more time tracking it and forecasting

rb924119 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:I love you guys on here but can we just go into spring so we can be fresh for next winter?  This storm really wore my out. Wow , what a trip this storm was !

BLASPHEMY!!!!! I VOTE THREE DAYS BANNISHMENT OVER IN OTI SANITARIUM FOR THIS!!!!! It was pretty wild, though, I cannot lie haha definitely fun!!! I just wish I could have enjoyed more time tracking it and forecasting

Geez, how much more could you have done?

Any thoughts on Wednesday yet or too soon?

rb924119 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:How did my map verify rb. I think it was the most accurate of the four I saw on this forum

Idk, won't know for a few weeks......HINT HINT and FOUR??????? Where are the other two??? If you know where they are, please add them to my Archive thread lol

Someone named Emokid posted one and I thought you did too

rb924119 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:We have wind blown slush..

Just letting that sink in. Words I've never really considered togther...wind blown slush.

Didn't even know this was possible ahaha Does that make it wushy outside? Or windshy?? Slundy, perhaps? What about slindy??

how do I calculate so you can use the data...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:I love you guys on here but can we just go into spring so we can be fresh for next winter?  This storm really wore my out. Wow , what a trip this storm was !

BLASPHEMY!!!!! I VOTE THREE DAYS BANNISHMENT OVER IN OTI SANITARIUM FOR THIS!!!!! It was pretty wild, though, I cannot lie haha definitely fun!!! I just wish I could have enjoyed more time tracking it and forecasting

Geez, how much more could you have done?

Any thoughts on Wednesday yet or too soon?

Well, had I not been working on my project all of last weekend, well, MY weekend (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and part of Wednesday) I could have definitely done more analysis, produced a video, and put out a preliminary map for everybody to see my thoughts more clearly and concisely. But after Wednesday, I did do as much as I could while working. However, between the project and my limitations on available forecast data (my one subscription to AccuWeather Pro ran out last year, and since I knew I was going to forfeit this season of forecasting decided to not renew it), my overall presence is still quite limited compared to what it used to be and what it will be next winter. And I'm coming back BIG with the operational use of my project. Gonna be sick!! But it comes at price, which was to largely sit this season out.

I have no idea about Wednesday. The time I spent forecasting was spent on this system lol But I might be able to add some insight starting Sunday, but I cannot say for sure yet.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:We have wind blown slush..

Just letting that sink in. Words I've never really considered togther...wind blown slush.

Didn't even know this was possible ahaha Does that make it wushy outside? Or windshy?? Slundy, perhaps? What about slindy??

how do I calculate so you can use the data...

What do you mean, mom? If you mean what am I looking for, there is separate thread made that details everything thank you!!

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:How did my map verify rb. I think it was the most accurate of the four I saw on this forum

Idk, won't know for a few weeks......HINT HINT and FOUR??????? Where are the other two??? If you know where they are, please add them to my Archive thread lol

Someone named Emokid posted one and I thought you did too

Oh snap, I totally must not have seen his/hers!! If you can find it for me or know where it is, please move a copy of it over to the thread!! Likewise, if emokid is reading, please feel free to move it over!! Thanks!! And no, I did not make one officially; just laid the ground work for my thoughts using geographic descriptors/landmarks.

rb924119 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:We have wind blown slush..

Just letting that sink in. Words I've never really considered togther...wind blown slush.

Didn't even know this was possible ahaha Does that make it wushy outside? Or windshy?? Slundy, perhaps? What about slindy??

how do I calculate so you can use the data...

What do you mean, mom? If you mean what am I looking for, there is separate thread made that details everything thank you!!

I was joking no way to measure what I have out there lol..looks like a few piles of Doo Doo..

I’ve often thought of posting my own snow map but I’m not good with graphics. Having seen syos’s map (Which joking aside, was pretty good in substance if not art), I’m reconsidering how much graphic skill I need.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:I love you guys on here but can we just go into spring so we can be fresh for next winter?  This storm really wore my out. Wow , what a trip this storm was !

BLASPHEMY!!!!! I VOTE THREE DAYS BANNISHMENT OVER IN OTI SANITARIUM FOR THIS!!!!! It was pretty wild, though, I cannot lie haha definitely fun!!! I just wish I could have enjoyed more time tracking it and forecasting

Geez, how much more could you have done?

Any thoughts on Wednesday yet or too soon?

My initial thought on Wednesday (yes I know you were asking rb but I have nothing better to do than answer, so I’ll budge in) is the setup is similar to today, Although the secondary low won’t be as deep. HOWEVER, while the secondary coastal may not be as strong as today’s, we are starting with more cold air (Highs Tuesday will be about 15 degrees colder than they were yesterday) so we may not need the storm to generate as much of its own cold air. So I think chances for accumulating snow north of I-80 are good and north of I-195 in NJ are decent.

Billg - I took a quick look and the problem I see is that the primary low and initial moisture feed is over Michigan I believe.  There is secondary development but the winds are coming in from a westerly direction with downsloping which tends to dry the air out. The low will form but it is hard to get moisture to wrap back west.  We will see what it looks like on Sunday

Hey guys. The storm is crazy but I only got trace of snow. The snow mostly accumulated in grass. Otherwise, the wind was incredible. I am located in Nutley, NJ.

Hey topple. The wind really has been a defining feature of this storm. Strongest winds over a long period I’ve seen in a few years. Still rattling my house even now.

billg315 wrote:I’ve often thought of posting my own snow map but I’m not good with graphics. Having seen syos’s map (Which joking aside, was pretty good in substance if not art), I’m reconsidering how much graphic skill I need.

As per Sysos map which as you say artistry aside was fairly accurate, that is once he drew boundaries which was after the storm ended so I'm not sure that should count. They key seems to be the willingness to splurge and purchase the 64 pack of Crayolas rather than the 8 pack. Syos hands were tied with the very limited assortment of colors, mostly dark, found in the 8 pack. Had he purchased the 64 pack he would have been able to use a much lighter assortment of colors on his map and landmass, oceans, and LI sound would have shown up much clearer under the lighter colors.

He's new at it and I'm sure he will only get better, as I'm sure you will once you take that first step.

Billg - looking at the 00 z GFS , there might be something there as it is a coastal hugger . They can be tough as you can guess, low level warm air at the coast! See how it develops.

None of the six NWS stations (CPK, LGA, EWR, JFK, ISP, and BDR) had any measurable snowfall from this event.......

Hard to believe but this storm produced 12 straight hours of snow, much of it at moderate or better intensity, and nary an inch to be found, anywhere. Seemed like a very dry band was sitting on top of all us east folks.

The Jersey Shore is not well situated for March accumulations, the air and ground temps at storm time are usually always above freezing. We need the heavier precip rates to overcome that,

So, in the end the warmer surface temps overcame the lighter precip to prevent accumulating snow down here at exit 80 on the GSP.

None of which diminishes the fact that the cold 'crashed to the coast' exactly as predicted here, in complete defiance of the models and pros. The cold started even earlier than predicted, and it marched with authority straight to the Mason Dixon line like a modern-day Gen Sherman. This made for an even more emphatic NJ Strong smackdown of the modeling and pros! Seems to happen kind of regular these days.

Math23x7 wrote:None of the six NWS stations (CPK, LGA, EWR, JFK, ISP, and BDR) had any measurable snowfall from this event.......

Maybe they can borrow some from Cobleskill NY which reported 39.3 inches.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:RB, Sroc, Weather Bob, Frank and Mugs

Amazing work with one of the oddest storms I've ever seen.

I'm hoping there's at least one or two more in your bag of tricks this season.

CP thank you and I think we stayed ahead of teh curve overall. The snow accumulations did not pan out for some but did for others. Interesting that teh snow maps IF accumulated woudl have been most likely correct but IF's dont count right? This was one of the hardest and weirdest storms I have seen in my years of tracking storms (since I was 7 LOL!))
For instance I saw .2" on my board in my back yard of snow whilst at work about 7 miles by a crows flight NW the custodians said there was about 2" on the grass and a heavy coating on the parking lots and about 1 mile west of there in Franklin Lakes they had 4" while 2 miles NW from there had 6". The Hudson valley was just mind blowing in a sense for areas raining and a few miles down the road were puking snow.

My wife finally admitted the she (Mrs. right and her first name is............Always LOL) was wrong and I was correct in telling my son that he needed to stay till today at PSU. The 11AM bus from PSU to New York City NEVER MADE IT as of 8PM last night - they were stuck in the Poconos on Rt 80. The panic of parents and kids alike on Fakebook was through the roof. I told my wife Wednesday that our son should stay an extra day before coming home for Spring Break and she said yuo guys always blow these storms up and nothing happens - well.............

Anyway it was such a dynamic storm and set up overall. The snow maps are going to be like splatter paint of Jackson Pollock


Next week midweek and the Archambault event on teh 12th then we look to flip as the -NAO breaks down and Bob and the rest of us can take a break and come back in october to discuss next winter - Hints of EL Nino coming back weak though and solar activity almost non existent. This as data shows will result in lots of seismic activity of EQ and Volcanic eruptions these next few years to possibly aid in our winters.

toople wrote:Hey guys. The storm is crazy but I only got trace of snow.  The snow mostly accumulated in grass.  Otherwise, the wind was incredible. I am located in Nutley, NJ.

Me too toople. A glaze on my deck is all I got. We're probably not far from each other. I'm near Bloomfield HS.

WeatherBob wrote:Billg - looking at the 00 z GFS ,  there might be something there as it is a coastal hugger .  They can be tough as you can guess, low level warm air at the coast!  See how it develops.

Yeah the 6z looks pretty favorable. Low develops a little further south (off VA just north of NC) than the one yesterday and moves to just inside the benchmark during the day and evening Wednesday. Plenty of cold air aloft down to south jersey and much more favorable surface temps near or below freezing for most of the storm. Also looks like the wrap around snows hang in until Thursday morning, so a decent duration.

NAM is just out of range but seems to be hinting at developing the low off the VA Coast as well.

Biggest concern is if it’s too close to the coast warm air could get drawn in at the shore although GFS shows mostly snow for everyone down to AC once the low deepens off the nj coast.

It’s a quick turnaround but we may need a thread for this next storm by Sunday night or Monday.

billg315 wrote:It’s a quick turnaround but we may need a thread for this next storm by Sunday night or Monday.

Bill do you mean teh sneaky back door LP that may bring snow ELI and Conn and posibbly into ENY state?
If the Wed storm yes I do agree that we should start one IF things look good come Sunday night.
Lets keep that discussion for the event in the LR thread where I just posted some maps and discussion there.

Hello members.
I want to thank this wonderful board for being on top of this storm since last week.  In particular rb, sroc and Frank.

Now i understand that the snow accumulations were disappointing for many, but like most storms it depended on your location.  I ended up with about 6" IMBY with 34" for seasonal total (about my average at 700' elevation).  Just a few degrees colder would have rendered double that.

But let me state that this storm caught our local DOT and school districts completely by surprise which caused many disabled vehicles and accidents on our main roads due to absolutely no plowing as well as whiteouts.  In particular several school buses became disabled with elementary and middle school children stuck on different buses for many hours.  Also the schools had children there until 9 PM because roads were a mess.  Why was DOT and the school district unprepared?  IMO Mt Holly dropped the ball on this.  This was a blizzard from Central Bucks on north and no advisories were posted until it was way too late.  DOT should have been listening to rb!

Now up in Monroe County, PA it was another animal because it was several degrees colder due to elevation.  In Mt Pocono i measured anywhere between 20" and 24" depending on the location. Now i have been in storms which rendered more snow, but the magnitude and duration of the wind set this one apart.  It caused whiteouts like I can only recall in Boxing Day.  I saw more downed trees than i can remember.  Visibility got so bad that i had to abandon my truck (on side of road) 1/4 mile from my motel room because i literally could see 20 feet in from of me and vehicles were just left in the middle of the road.  This was the real deal where I was and I won't forget it anytime soon.

Upstate New York was buried by the storm. The attached does not show final totals but many towns were over 30 inches even at this point. Cobleskill New York which I believe is near Oneonta Ended up with 39.3 inches. Amazing

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2018/03/updated_snow_totals_from_upstate_ny_storm_now_top_30_inches.html

My opinion on why the radar was showing snow but in fact it was raining at the surface is the simple fact that the radar can only detect the precipitation down to a certain elevation. I don’t know what that elevation is but apparently not low enough to detect the rain very near the surface during yesterday’s storm