March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

GFS still way too touchy-feely with the coast for my liking. The low is practically playing the slots in AC as it goes by. That makes a close call for rain issues. That said, the areas just west of any mixing will get HAMMERED with snow from this storm.

Could it BE? A glimmer of model AGREEMENT????

SoulSingMG wrote:Could it BE? A glimmer of model AGREEMENT????

Right, pretty close, compared to any other system this year.

billg315 wrote:As to issues with sticking, a lot of this snow comes before dawn so it may start sticking from the outset as it may be freezing at daybreak Wed. With this projected precip intensity and the storm underway by daybreak, and then continuing for several hours after sunset Wed., I am not nearly as worried about snow melting as I was last Friday (again remember the high last Thur was 62 and it was 41 Friday morning before the changeover. Temps Tuesday and Tue night will be MUCH colder. This is not last weeks storm.

Good points

Sanchize06 wrote:

And this is a model that performs terrible with NAO storm. EURO and NAM the way to go here.

SoulSingMG wrote:Could it BE? A glimmer of model AGREEMENT????

I would expect differences with precip intensity and temps to continue but track could be set in stone with this one. Never doubt a -NAO

billg315 wrote:GFS still way too touchy-feely with the coast for my liking. The low is practically playing the slots in AC as it goes by. That makes a close call for rain issues. That said, the areas just west of any mixing will get HAMMERED with snow from this storm.

It's hard not to feel pretty good about this storm, it has much more cold air to work with than our previous one. This storm almost tracks over the Jersey Shore and still most see a lot of snow, with the exception of the immediate coast. It's only like a 50 mile shift east to hammer everyone and there's so much time for that small of a shift to take place

At the risk of driving Track crazy by talking about another city outside NJ - that is a GREAT run for the Philly metro area. Lol. That will shut the city down.

Frank is even around , kinna missing a bit last storm ,  glad to see that too!

jmanley32 wrote:Not great 6-8 looks like but it IS the GFS which has not been doing to well and its at least in the same ballpark in terms of placement as the other models, precip totals will best be shown on SR models if you ask me, still I will take it. Just want one storm that pushes a foot for the entire area INCLUDING my area. The bomb cyclone gave me 11, doesnt count lol

......."its at least in the same ballpark in terms of placement as the other models, precip totals will best be shown on SR models if you ask me" BINGO.

Jman's growing up, gang!!!! I think I just shed a tear :') A true demonstration that even when you don't think you're learning anything, you're learning something, and THAT is one of the main goals of this forum.

Dang, we have Syo making maps now, Jman speaking words of wisdom and recognizing what's important. I think the next generation of forecasters is waiting in the wings, here Frank!! Great to see!!!!

Hey all , do those low level strong east winds over S NJ scare anyone? I mean am I missing better info that shows NE winds further north?

track17 wrote:Sanchize your in long Branch how can you honestly like this set up. It is horrible for us

I like the fact that the storm has more cold air to work with, we could get away with it not taking a perfect track. If the storm goes where the GFS just took it, it's rain for the coast, ending as a little snow. But with 2 days to go, it's likely going to change a little. If you take a middle ground between the NAM/GFS and the EURO, it's a great track

But every model run from all of those has been bad I think we just need to be realistic and realize this is not a good set up for us

rb924119 wrote:Jman's growing up, gang!!!! I think I just shed a tear :') A true demonstration that even when you don't think you're learning anything, you're learning something, and THAT is one of the main goals of this forum.

Dang, we have Syo making maps now, Jman speaking words of wisdom and recognizing what's important. I think the next generation of forecasters is waiting in the wings, here Frank!! Great to see!!!!

I got something right?! Good god I even impress myself sometimes lol, as for growing up got 10 yrs on ya bud, but not 10 years on your weather experitise you far exceed anything I know.

Guys and girls, can we play nice and just stick to the storm at hand please? I am sure everyone wants to have an enjoyable experience watching how this storm progresses !

Then talk to cp about putting others down all I was asking is that we stop just worrying about just nyand actually mention what happens in other areas

RB / Frank - the storm is to begin within 6o hours and I know the fine details are not quite there yet, but do those strong low level east winds over the southern NJ coast scare you? It sometimes tough to see what the actual wind flow will be in such a tight wound up system?

WeatherBob wrote:RB / Frank - the storm is to begin within 6o hours and I know the fine details are not quite there yet, but do those strong low level east winds over the southern NJ coast scare you?  It sometimes tough to see what the actual wind flow will be in such a tight wound up system?

Scare in what way? To effect precip types or for more damaging winds?

It wouldn't surprise me if this trended NW the coming days. That's what happened much of this winter. I could see the interior cashing in on some big snow but it would be really tough for I-95 to get in on it.

Math23x7 wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if this trended NW the coming days.  That's what happened much of this winter.  I could see the interior cashing in on some big snow but it would be really tough for I-95 to get in on it.

dislike XXXXXXXX

JMan - I am sorry, strong east winds usually mean Warm air unless a strong arctic high is moving off the Maine coast.

Easy here, peeps. Are those of us excited that are currently being modeled to get snow? Yeah, I think that's fair to say. But we absolutely value everybody's input, regardless of where they are from. We are not discounting what you are saying. We fully acknowledge that taken at face value these recent runs don't look good for the coastal plain southeast of I-95. But those types of details are not something we should be worried about right now, that's what we are trying to convey here. Would I be upset if I was you? Heck yeah I would!! But many of us have learned that at this range you should not be paying attention to what the surface maps show right now. Perfect example was this last storm. The GFS was insistent that nowhere south of 84 was going to see snow at all. None. How did that work out? Busted terribly. The only things we should be focusing on are the things that deal with the evolution of the entire system. For example, how are the mid-levels being portrayed in relation to previous runs? By examining changes at those levels, NOT the surface, we can then get an idea of what the surface will ACTUALLY look like come game time. Modeling doesn't beat human intuition, as was so grandly demonstrated with the last event. So when we tell you to not pay attention to the surface maps, we honestly mean that. It's not because we are trying to dismiss what are observing them to show, rather, we are trying to save you from yourself in a way because we know that upper- and mid-levels drive the results at the surface. The things to look at are 1) we have a credible storm threat 2) ALL of our area is in the running to see significant snowfall from it 3) what do the levels ABOVE THE SURFACE look like? These will dictate the actual result, and any trends for better or worse must be acknowledged, reconciled, and their effects disseminated. Preferably, in my opinion, I do not like how things look VERBATIM for the regions southeast of I-95, as I think warm air gets in there and turns it to rain before dry slotting. HOWEVER, I HAVE NOT DONE MY USUAL ANALYSIS TO ESTABLISH A BASELINE OF WHERE I THINK WE SEE MODELING HEAD IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SO THAT PREVIOUS STATEMENT SHOULD BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. Listen to the other folks on here, track, and just observe what's analyzed, said, and not paid attention to, because it will start to make sense. I promise it will. But to be putting yourself through this much agony over what probably equates to an eastward shift of 50 miles, which at this temporal range is well within the variability of observed model "noise", is not fair to yourself. THAT is what we are trying to get at, buddy.

Well, I will wait till Monday and Mondays nights runs look as far as the surface winds are concerned , east winds usually don’t bode well for the coast to produce a prolonged period of snow.

track17 wrote:I get that Rb. I am not upset over no snow. I get I am not getting nay of have no chance. I just get annoyed when people say it looks great for everyone when it does not for a huge portion that's all. I can care less if I get snow or rain. I understand it will be rain nad that is fine people on here just need to stop saying it looks great for all when it does not

"Looking great" is purely a by-product of location when you look at surface maps. However, what the NAM did was pretty much as ideal as you could hope for in March. Climatology has to be reconciled, and with the setup we are seeing modeled right now, overall, I would agree that we are in fact looking great to a large degree. This setup is nearly as perfect as you can get it given the time time of year and type of evolution that is going to occur. Whether it's snow or rain, we have to iron those details out, but by and large, this SETUP is great. THAT is what we are mostly referring to. The snow maps look great too, but again, it's what happens aloft that matters right now.

Ok well, we can see tmrw how the surface features look in relation to the mid and upper levels. It is going to be a very close call due to the size of the storm and what the actual surface winds will be. Any slight jog like 30 miles to the east can bring NE winds on the coast. Let’s just see how things look tmrw.

And that's your opinion, and that's totally fine! However, I just hope that you understand how close you REALLY are to have this being YOUR storm. If you look at the UKMET from tonight, that gives you YOUR storm. Only difference between it and the others is it closes the mid-level lows later, thus allowing for a further east track. How much later? SIX HOURS. That's how small the difference is between the interior cashing in, and you. But if that's your opinion, I completely respect that.

0Z ECMWF is steadfast with the event happening mainly during the day and temperatures slightly above freezing. Not a great combination unless than snow rates are very high.