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March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:29 am

Jump west on this run from 6z?
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:31 am

Way tucked in
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:33 am

Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 5a9d5476a4262.png.ba74fc28168c80a2e257e1d00297f1e5

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:33 am

H5 closed off over DC

lol!

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:34 am

This is well west of any other guidance
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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:34 am

A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:34 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 5a9d5476a4262.png.ba74fc28168c80a2e257e1d00297f1e5

Hi this is Guy! A reminder that after seeing this NAM run, the OTI sanitarium is open for business cheers

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:36 am

12z NAM is Rain to snow for areas far west of 95, and 95 east is all rain
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:39 am

There is also a huge dry slot over the coast because H5 low basically tracks over us.

Snow map - again - outlier.

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Sn10_acc.us_ne

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam looks to be coming in farther south and east

Negative

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Capture.PNG.5c51bf14a125a437dbafb673ca1828b0

I stand corrected Frank I was looking at the frames before it looked like it was south and east that looks really tucked in could it be the nams bias to be over Amplified?
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:43 am

Not denying this is a plausible solution, but we should note that the NAM does tend to overamp things a bit.
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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:46 am

Not buying it completely but not gonna rule it out either. North and west trend has helped and hurt us this year.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:47 am

It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:54 am

The 12z NAM makes a huge jump to the NW from hour 51 to 54. How plausible is that type of sudden shift given the set up?

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Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:56 am

@billg315 wrote:A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.

Hi! That would be me.

Sorry I've been absent guys....I lost power at 9PM Friday night and it's been off ever since. Been having some brutal nights, woke up this morning to a temp of 39 degrees INSIDE my house. affraid

I'm hoping to get a generator today and some space heaters. They are saying our power will be back by Wednesday night but apparently now there's another storm coming for our area?!?! I've been so out of the loop no internet etc. Only reason I can post here now is I'm at work.

Hopatcong got absolutely slammed by this past storm. NWS has me for another 8-12. I am extremely worried about this system.
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Post by jimv45 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:05 am

Windshield wiper effect like Bernie said. Still think when all said and done most here will be happy.

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:07 am

And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift. This is just the beginning. Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:15 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)

Upstate NY received 20-40 inches from the last storm. Usually lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:17 am

@Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

I don't think it's a shift, Mike, it's just a wobble from 06z run. It's nearly identical to 00z.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:20 am

READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:29 am

The difference between the NAM west outlier and the euro east outlier is 3-6 hrs difference in the timing of when H5 closes off. Dont take any single model run verbatim esp when there are these types of differences coming in from run to run and model to model.

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:41 am

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Snowam11
March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Stormt22


mt holly early call we'll see what happens this ones getting hyped up lol
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:43 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm

Cranky indeed. Nice write-ups, and great graphics, but dang he does get a bit...uh...flowery with his prose. "You lazy intolerable swine"? Ouch. Not a people person Razz

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:44 am

Once H5 closes off it pulls the surface low west. If its over land like the NAM shows then the surface low is closer to the coast and the warm air out ahead screws the coast. Again the difference is a matter of a few hrs.


March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Nam_z511
March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 Ecmwf103

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:45 am

12z RGEM

SNOW MAP

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 SN_000-072_0000

RAIN MAP

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 10 RN_000-072_0000


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total

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