March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam looks to be coming in farther south and east

Negative

Jump west on this run from 6z?

Way tucked in

Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.

H5 closed off over DC

This is well west of any other guidance

A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.

Hi this is Guy! A reminder that after seeing this NAM run, the OTI sanitarium is open for business

12z NAM is Rain to snow for areas far west of 95, and 95 east is all rain

There is also a huge dry slot over the coast because H5 low basically tracks over us.

Snow map - again - outlier.

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam looks to be coming in farther south and east

Negative

I stand corrected Frank I was looking at the frames before it looked like it was south and east that looks really tucked in could it be the nams bias to be over Amplified?

Not denying this is a plausible solution, but we should note that the NAM does tend to overamp things a bit.

Not buying it completely but not gonna rule it out either. North and west trend has helped and hurt us this year.

It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)

The 12z NAM makes a huge jump to the NW from hour 51 to 54. How plausible is that type of sudden shift given the set up?

billg315 wrote:A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.

Hi! That would be me.

Sorry I've been absent guys....I lost power at 9PM Friday night and it's been off ever since. Been having some brutal nights, woke up this morning to a temp of 39 degrees INSIDE my house.

I'm hoping to get a generator today and some space heaters. They are saying our power will be back by Wednesday night but apparently now there's another storm coming for our area?!?! I've been so out of the loop no internet etc. Only reason I can post here now is I'm at work.

Hopatcong got absolutely slammed by this past storm. NWS has me for another 8-12. I am extremely worried about this system.

Windshield wiper effect like Bernie said. Still think when all said and done most here will be happy.

And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift. This is just the beginning. Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

SoulSingMG wrote:It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)

Upstate NY received 20-40 inches from the last storm. Usually lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place.

Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

I don't think it's a shift, Mike, it's just a wobble from 06z run. It's nearly identical to 00z.

READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm

The difference between the NAM west outlier and the euro east outlier is 3-6 hrs difference in the timing of when H5 closes off. Dont take any single model run verbatim esp when there are these types of differences coming in from run to run and model to model.

mt holly early call we'll see what happens this ones getting hyped up lol

SoulSingMG wrote:READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm

Cranky indeed. Nice write-ups, and great graphics, but dang he does get a bit...uh...flowery with his prose. "You lazy intolerable swine"? Ouch. Not a people person

Once H5 closes off it pulls the surface low west. If its over land like the NAM shows then the surface low is closer to the coast and the warm air out ahead screws the coast. Again the difference is a matter of a few hrs.

12z RGEM

SNOW MAP



RAIN MAP