Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:35 am

SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:35 am

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

Why? lmao I presume you didn't get much? lol

SOLID presumption, lol. Not even an inch from White Plains to Port Chester in Westchester County. It's okay tho, the wind show made up for it. ;-)

The accumulations were definitely sporadic in places, as was the precip type at times, but in the general sense, I think the ideas I presented at least had merit. It certainly snowed to the coast, unlike what many thought and a lot of modeling showed, with many areas and people receiving accumulations in broad alignment with what was presented. I'm not going to say I verified, or didn't, as I didn't really provide a physical forecast such as a map to establish definitive metrics; just an outline. But I do think my ideas did perform fairly well, or were at least shown to not be unfounded, in a broad sense. I'm sorry you didn't get anything, though :'(

No apologies necessary; you are one of the best forecasters on here and I always appreciate your educated input! :-D

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:36 am

mikeypizano wrote:NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

I think much like the last event, eastern Pa and western/northwestern NJ into the HV will be the sweet spots again with this event. I like what the NAM is doing. I'd gear up for a solid 8-12", minimum, but just keep in mind that is not my official forecast lol

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:37 am

mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Yes. Not as strong as the last storm but certainly troublesome when married with heavy wet snow.

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:38 am

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

I think much like the last event, eastern Pa and western/northwestern NJ into the HV will be the sweet spots again with this event. I like what the NAM is doing. I'd gear up for a solid 8-12", minimum, but just keep in mind that is not my official forecast lol

Ugh! Good thing I have the BIG Toro gassed up...

SoulSingMG wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Yes. Not as strong as the last storm but certainly troublesome when married with heavy wet snow.

I hate wind, and we don't need anymore tree damage!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:40 am

mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Nowhere near the last storm, but with so many trees already weakened it won't take nearly as much to cause further damage. However, this will not be as wet as the last system where you are, as the thermal profile will be significantly colder overall, which is a saving grace. However, you get more than a foot of snow, and even at high ratios would still work weigh down your conifers.

by **WeatherBob** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:45 am

This is just way to close to call for snow over the region, def NNJ and New York metro. Any wobble slightly east by say 30 miles can make a huge difference in sensible weather. I know people are forced to make a call on snowfall totals but it might not be until Tuesday and mornings to possibly tues eve / night models runs come in where you can lock and load the snowfall totals. LI is in such a difficult spot even if the surface low winds up a bit further east and the upper low cuts off farther east of the central Jersey coast. I am sure with this group of talented forecasters on this board , the forecast can be fine tuned by tonight’s runs for a very close solution to the future reality of the storms results!

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:46 am

mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

I think much like the last event, eastern Pa and western/northwestern NJ into the HV will be the sweet spots again with this event. I like what the NAM is doing. I'd gear up for a solid 8-12", minimum, but just keep in mind that is not my official forecast lol

Ugh! Good thing I have the BIG Toro gassed up...

SoulSingMG wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Yes. Not as strong as the last storm but certainly troublesome when married with heavy wet snow.

I hate wind, and we don't need anymore tree damage!

100%. local areas around me are still devastated and have outages

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:52 am

RGEM identical the NAM at H5, though significant differences arise at H3 and above, as the NAM depicts a dual, short and stubby jet structure, whereas the RGEM has a single long max. The NAM's jet structure definitely supports its QPF output, but the RGEM is no slouch either, as it's jet is modeled to be 20-40 knots STRONGER than either of the NAM's, therefore, likely supporting its QPF output as well.

by deadrabbit79 Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:56 am

RJB8525 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

I think much like the last event, eastern Pa and western/northwestern NJ into the HV will be the sweet spots again with this event. I like what the NAM is doing. I'd gear up for a solid 8-12", minimum, but just keep in mind that is not my official forecast lol

Ugh! Good thing I have the BIG Toro gassed up...

SoulSingMG wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Yes. Not as strong as the last storm but certainly troublesome when married with heavy wet snow.

I hate wind, and we don't need anymore tree damage!

100%. local areas around me are still devastated and have outages

Agreed......this storm is NOT good news for a lot of people.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:56 am

UKMET is an I-95 crushjob, and also currently middle of the road among the possibilities. However, I still think modeling continues correcting toward the NAM, personally.

by **Math23x7** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:UKMET is an I-95 crushjob, and also currently middle of the road among the possibilities. However, I still think modeling continues correcting toward the NAM, personally.

Agree. As has been seen the past couple of winters, the NAM has led the charge. IMO, the mix/rain line will be the former Tappan Zee Bridge and the snow/mix line will be I-84.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:11 pm

by Carter bk Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:19 pm

So nyc can get plain rain or lots of wet snow

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:20 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE

what does this mean

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:35 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE

what does this mean

I-95 blitzkrieg from Old Man Winter lol

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:36 pm

Us coasties waiting on the Euro like....

March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential - Page 12 Giphy

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Nowhere near the last storm, but with so many trees already weakened it won't take nearly as much to cause further damage. However, this will not be as wet as the last system where you are, as the thermal profile will be significantly colder overall, which is a saving grace. However, you get more than a foot of snow, and even at high ratios would still work weigh down your conifers.

I was told by someone from my area that it will likely be a low ratio, 7-8:1 snow, so wet and heavy... affraid

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:41 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE

what does this mean

I-95 blitzkrieg from Old Man Winter lol

thanks we are about 15 miles south from i95...just curious...tx for responding... Smile

lets see what the rest of the models say today.... and it's closer than the 1/78 line from last Friday!!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:42 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Nowhere near the last storm, but with so many trees already weakened it won't take nearly as much to cause further damage. However, this will not be as wet as the last system where you are, as the thermal profile will be significantly colder overall, which is a saving grace. However, you get more than a foot of snow, and even at high ratios would still work weigh down your conifers.

I was told by someone from my area that it will likely be a low ratio, 7-8:1 snow, so wet and heavy...

Not where you are. It'll be higher than that. 10-12:1

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

Nowhere near the last storm, but with so many trees already weakened it won't take nearly as much to cause further damage. However, this will not be as wet as the last system where you are, as the thermal profile will be significantly colder overall, which is a saving grace. However, you get more than a foot of snow, and even at high ratios would still work weigh down your conifers.

I was told by someone from my area that it will likely be a low ratio, 7-8:1 snow, so wet and heavy...

Not where you are. It'll be higher than that. 10-12:1

Well, as I said last year...TERRANCE HUNGRY!!!! WANT BEEEEEEEEIIG SNOW!

If its going to come, as much as I hate it this late in the season, bring it on. I can use the money...

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:Us coasties waiting on the Euro like....

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:Us coasties waiting on the Euro like....

yep..that is us lol!

and I am being driven crazy to boot by my Schipperke waiting for my Poodle to come home from groomer...lol...he has crying throughout the house...for the last 2 hours...

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:51 pm

UKIE consistently nailing NYC metro with this storm.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:02 pm

EURO BOUTTA COME IN HUGE I THINK

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:02 pm

So what's the story for southern Westchester soul? We screwed again saw nam not thrilled but other models are great lol. It just doesn't end.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:04 pm

EURO = I-95 CRUSHER

However, I think it is STILL correcting west to eventually resemble the NAM. REMAINS TO BE SEEN, HOWEVER.

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