March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

Frank If it retrogrades does mean longer duration?

12 to 16 NYC what I say rb. The Sr models go tell us the real totals. Ur wrong sorry lol

Madonne!

H5 closes off just inside the 40/70 BM.

sroc4 wrote:If the euro where to verify everyone, and I mean EVERYONE on this board would be happy...except Janet who is sipping cocktails on the beach in Fla...

I'm taking one for the team Scott, just like you did! ( and Joanne suggested I do and not be selfish that I am missing it)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018030518/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

I might frame this

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Same time frame. Looks like dry slot over Long Island

Thats 500mb RH.  What does 700mb look like for same time frame?

Good catch. Someone from another site foolishly posted that image. I am equally foolish for not validating. But here is H7

Frank_Wx wrote:

It’s the NAM so cut the totals almost in half....but the 50 mile jog east was nice to see

an afternoon update from Mt Holly

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...A major snowstorm is on the way for portions of our area on
Wednesday...

.Unfortunately, a major nor`easter will be intensifying rapidly
Wednesday afternoon along the New Jersey coast. It is expected to
produce heavy wet snow for eastern Pennsylvania and portions New
Jersey Wednesday. Highest amounts should be in the hilly areas.
While this storm is still in watch phase, we recommend everyone
with activities in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to have
contingency plans for altering travel and how to handle possible
power related impacts. These plans can then be applied once
warnings are issued, which will express more confidence in this
oncoming probable very high impact event. Wednesday may be a good
day to just stay home and be safe.

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14
inches are possible, heaviest amounts in the higher elevations.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will probably be very difficult to
impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
Significant reductions in visibility are likely. Snow will
probably accumulate at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour for
several hours, especially during Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Power outages may develop from newly broken tree limbs
or from uprooted trees in the softened ground, especially where
6 inches or more accumulates on the branches. This could become
a dangerous situation and contingency plans should be developed
for altering activities as a high impact major snow storm is
expected Wednesday. If and when warnings are issued, those
contingency plans can be implemented. We recommend following the
advice of local officials and this may be a good day to just stay
home, to ensure safety.

Hi res nam coming in now and showing 12mm of snow per hour



Pretty sure that is close to 6 inches

Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk,
Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, and Honesdale
338 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or
more inches possible. The heavy snow is most likely late
Wednesday morning to early Wednesday evening.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania; Susquehanna, Wyoming, Lackawanna,
Luzerne and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
reductions in visibility are possible.

Mikey P is in the game now, welcome aboard

Good lord 3 km!!! starts at midnight going strong at noon still.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:12 to 16 NYC what I say rb. The Sr models go tell us the real totals. Ur wrong sorry lol

Never said NYC wasn't going to get snow lol I just said the highest totals will be west of the I-95. And I still think they will be. But you may be right, I don't deny that

I have nothing to say about this run. Other than...

Well then...

[quote="SoulSingMG"]

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:12 to 16 NYC what I say rb. The Sr models go tell us the real totals. Ur wrong sorry lol

Never said NYC wasn't going to get snow lol I just said the highest totals will be west of the I-95. And I still think they will be. But you may be right, I don't deny that

I have nothing to say about this run. Other than...

[/quote 3 km is even better

Some thoughts on temperature to add to the mix. Skies should clear tonight. Looks like low temps will range from about 23* far N&W to 32* on the NJ beaches and eastern Long Island. Cloud cover begins moving in during the morning. Highs will struggle to get above about 40* N&W or 44* further S&E. Dewpoints at the surface around 30* Tuesday night into early Wednesday with low temps getting to near freezing. Upper level temps (850) never get above 0*C Tuesday night. Snow beginning about 5 hours before dawn with (obviously) no sun angle issues. These are all very good signs for accumulation with a March storm.

WOW!!! More aggressive than I've seen from Lee in awhile!!

now that's a map where you can say everybody wins lol. SORRY MIKEY this is just our local

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...A major snowstorm is on the way for portions of our area on
Wednesday...

.Unfortunately, a major nor`easter will be intensifying rapidly
Wednesday afternoon along the New Jersey coast. It is expected to
produce heavy wet snow for eastern Pennsylvania and portions New
Jersey Wednesday. Highest amounts should be in the hilly areas.
While this storm is still in watch phase, we recommend everyone
with activities in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to have
contingency plans for altering travel and how to handle possible
power related impacts. These plans can then be applied once
warnings are issued, which will express more confidence in this
oncoming probable very high impact event. Wednesday may be a good
day to just stay home and be safe.


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-061000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0005.180307T0000Z-180308T0800Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14
inches are possible, heaviest amounts in the higher elevations.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will probably be very difficult to
impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
Significant reductions in visibility are likely. Snow will
probably accumulate at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour for
several hours, especially during Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Power outages may develop from newly broken tree limbs
or from uprooted trees in the softened ground, especially where
6 inches or more accumulates on the branches. This could become
a dangerous situation and contingency plans should be developed
for altering activities as a high impact major snow storm is
expected Wednesday. If and when warnings are issued, those
contingency plans can be implemented. We recommend following the
advice of local officials and this may be a good day to just stay
home, to ensure safety.