March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Jesus 40 to 50 mm qpf I'm in bullseye

This is how serious it still is in parts of PA and probably into NY. This is from my mom she received from a friend who received that as an email from the State. We live in Pike Cty. Lol

My current probabilities for NYC:

"Mothrazilla": 40%
Godzilla: 10%

lglickman1 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues?  Or still up in the air?

It is the battle ground.  If GFS and 12z are corect with LP track then coast will mix.  If the Euro/CMC/Ukie are correct coast may mix little but not much

Does that include NYC metro or more LI and jersey coast?

Ive been at work all day so havent been able to really poor over the details, but I have been following models.  This is my current thiniking.  S&E of the line will likely struggle with accum due to mixing and or very low ratios.  N&W will have little to no probs with mixing or ratios.  In between where the yellow hashes are is where Im torn right now.  I think we def see a little mix, but I think it will be limited, so just not sure if I should say totals limited.  If I have time tomorrow am I will issue an actual snow map, but Im meeting with my accountant first thing so well see.  

Unfortunately where i am in ocean county nj. Jersey shore we are gonna mix and rain a lot. Gonna keep totals to 3-6 at best I believe. Sucks like crazy! Skins what u say?

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues?  Or still up in the air?

It is the battle ground.  If GFS and 12z are corect with LP track then coast will mix.  If the Euro/CMC/Ukie are correct coast may mix little but not much

Does that include NYC metro or more LI and jersey coast?

Ive been at work all day so havent been able to really poor over the details, but I have been following models.  This is my current thiniking.  S&E of the line will likely struggle with accum due to mixing and or very low ratios.  N&W will have little to no probs with mixing or ratios.  In between where the yellow hashes are is where Im torn right now.  I think we def see a little mix, but I think it will be limited, so just not sure if I should say totals limited.  If I have time tomorrow am I will issue an actual snow map, but Im meeting with my accountant first thing so well see.  

Actually this is more in line with my thoughts

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues?  Or still up in the air?

It is the battle ground.  If GFS and 12z are corect with LP track then coast will mix.  If the Euro/CMC/Ukie are correct coast may mix little but not much

Does that include NYC metro or more LI and jersey coast?

Ive been at work all day so havent been able to really poor over the details, but I have been following models.  This is my current thiniking.  S&E of the line will likely struggle with accum due to mixing and or very low ratios.  N&W will have little to no probs with mixing or ratios.  In between where the yellow hashes are is where Im torn right now.  I think we def see a little mix, but I think it will be limited, so just not sure if I should say totals limited.  If I have time tomorrow am I will issue an actual snow map, but Im meeting with my accountant first thing so well see.  

Beautiful, keeps me all snow or nearly all snow, on 3km I also get into many of those pink returns, something tells me this is going to be a crazy possibly damaging storm, there will be gisty winds per 3km nam and rgem as high as 55mph on LI and in my area 40-45, but its the weight of the snow that should probably be the biggest concern especially with furs.

One of the perks about being inland is no mix, but I may not see anything either...

Ouch 18z GFS is nowhere near the SR models, in fact with ratios gives NY barely 3 inches. Not concerned though, IMO the SR models will lead the rest of the way. We are within 36 hrs of snow moving in so its crunch time.

Drinking the same beer I drank for the last storm so lets see what happens...

Anyone on board for a TSNOW?

WeatherBob wrote:Anyone on board for a TSNOW?

i am. Just hoping for no rain changeover here.

The GFS is arguably the worst model that's ever existed. I stopped looking at it after the Blizzard back in Jan of 16.

Bernie, on his latest periscope about 40 min ago, said he sees the 6" line all the way east over to Islip by the time it's all said and done

jake732 wrote:Unfortunately where i am in ocean county nj. Jersey shore we are gonna mix and rain a lot. Gonna keep totals to 3-6 at best I believe. Sucks like crazy! Skins what u say?

Tough call for us a tick east and we can stay all snow

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is it clear at this point if the immediate coast will have mixing issues?  Or still up in the air?

It is the battle ground.  If GFS and 12z are corect with LP track then coast will mix.  If the Euro/CMC/Ukie are correct coast may mix little but not much

Does that include NYC metro or more LI and jersey coast?

Ive been at work all day so havent been able to really poor over the details, but I have been following models.  This is my current thiniking.  S&E of the line will likely struggle with accum due to mixing and or very low ratios.  N&W will have little to no probs with mixing or ratios.  In between where the yellow hashes are is where Im torn right now.  I think we def see a little mix, but I think it will be limited, so just not sure if I should say totals limited.  If I have time tomorrow am I will issue an actual snow map, but Im meeting with my accountant first thing so well see.  

hey sroc...you are funny..Dash and I were both out of sorts today...lol..me waiting on models...the weather kind and him waiting for his little model to come home:) by the way I am in that yellow stripe zone...

Did frank do his prelim snow map?

SoulSingMG wrote:The GFS is arguably the worst model that's ever existed. I stopped looking at it after the Blizzard back in Jan of 16.

Bernie, on his latest periscope about 40 min ago, said he sees the 6" line all the way east over to Islip by the time it's all said and done

While I strongly agree with your assessment of the GFS, in this particular case, I feel strongly that it has the right solution. Remains to be seen, however

rb924119 wrote:

This is how serious it still is in parts of PA and probably into NY. This is from my mom she received from a friend who received that as an email from the State. We live in Pike Cty. Lol

wow...this brings flash backs..but of a different kind...as the day wore on for Sandy..they originally told us all to shelter in place..as the day went on the texts and alerts got more ominous..finally they came around by fire truck to have us leave..it was too late....thank goodness my house has a high elevation and the flood gates held...but I flashed back with that text...I hope your parents are going to be ok...do they have power?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

This is how serious it still is in parts of PA and probably into NY. This is from my mom she received from a friend who received that as an email from the State. We live in Pike Cty. Lol

wow...this brings flash backs..but of a different kind...as the day wore on for Sandy..they originally told us all to shelter in place..as the day went on the texts and alerts got more ominous..finally they came around by fire truck to have us leave..it was too late....thank goodness my house has a high elevation and the flood gates held...but I flashed back with that text...I hope your parents are going to be ok...do they have power?

Up there, a lot of people are saying it's actually WORSE than Sandy was, and I saw the damage from Sandy firsthand lol that is pretty insane. Yeah they are ok, thanks!! No power still, but they have a generator and a woodstove, so they're fine haha the wonders of country living lmao wish I was there, honestly :/

This is conservative Upton making this call



Holly says up that will ya boys