Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:15 pm

CMC NYC for the win!!

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Cmc_sn11

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:16 pm

oldtimer wrote:Jman Amugs said LI and NYC is toast Going with GFS

Not according to the snow map, its a lot less but not nothing I still see 10 inches. Biut GFS is crap.

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:21 pm

Lee likes 6-9 for city 9-12 plus north and parts of Li.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:40 pm

billg315 wrote:I was emboldened by Syos to give this a try with limited art skills. Pardon some of the imperfections but you'll get the point.
Green: Mostly rain. Some change to snow possible at very end of storm but little if any accumulation.
Purple: Rain and Snow mixing in the early part of the storm. Will eventually go to all snow, but the early mixing issues will keep totals in check. 3-6"
Blue: Mostly snow. Some rain might mix right on border with pink but this is a solid snow event. 6-10"
Brown (was supposed to be orange :-/ ): All Snow and heavy at times. Jackpot zone. 10-15"
(p.s. It took forever to do this so I did not see Frank's map beforehand. Looks like we are a little different in some spots, but not too far off)

Your basemap looks very familiar......... told ya

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:41 pm

But nice work!!!!!

by adamfitz1969 Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:58 pm

by adamfitz1969 Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:59 pm

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png.99f6b4bba508a8555befcaac6a0c3254

Massive

by **Math23x7** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:23 am

Ugh, GEFS members west of the OP...

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:24 am

Math23x7 wrote:Ugh, GEFS members west of the OP...

Haven't checked them yet, but I just saw the RPM and it came SIGNIFICANTLY west from its last run. Almost rains to NYC with the heaviest banding along the Delaware River, give or take ~20miles a side lol

by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:25 am

Math23x7 wrote:Ugh, GEFS members west of the OP...

Where do you live at, if you dont mind me asking.

by **Math23x7** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:35 am

Upper East Side, Manhattan

by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:46 am

by **Math23x7** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:47 am

Where I think the axis of the highest snow totals will be. I think widespread 12"+ snow totals are likely in this region. Areas south and east will having mixing issues. Areas north and west will have suppression issues:

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Snowma10

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Snowma10

by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:56 am

Math23x7 wrote:Where I think the axis of the highest snow totals will be. I think widespread 12"+ snow totals are likely in this region. Areas south and east will having mixing issues. Areas north and west will have suppression issues:

Here is to hoping you get that line more south so you can get in the jackpot, im in Tarrytown, i like to share.

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:57 am

Math23x7 wrote:Where I think the axis of the highest snow totals will be. I think widespread 12"+ snow totals are likely in this region. Areas south and east will having mixing issues. Areas north and west will have suppression issues:

With a system like this, I strongly agree given the overall setup. That matches my thoughts perfectly Smile

by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:02 am

Sweet Jesus

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Download.gif.1b1c614b5cc79ee683b6fd111d35e852

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:27 am

Math23x7 wrote:Where I think the axis of the highest snow totals will be. I think widespread 12"+ snow totals are likely in this region. Areas south and east will having mixing issues. Areas north and west will have suppression issues:

Lee Goldberg just agreed with you

by **WeatherBob** Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:41 am

Is the Euro snow map out yet?

by **pdubz** Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:43 am

Euro snow map March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 DXlc11TU0AEoOU-

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:14 am

jmanley32 wrote:Soul we are both in line with NWS concern of heavy wet snow, prior weakening of trees and 20-30mph winds with gusts to 40mph, I think could see gusts even a bit higher.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf

It's gonna be dicey up here in Westchester, Jman! Heavy wet snow can sometimes do more damage than winds.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:16 am

rb924119 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Where I think the axis of the highest snow totals will be. I think widespread 12"+ snow totals are likely in this region. Areas south and east will having mixing issues. Areas north and west will have suppression issues:

With a system like this, I strongly agree given the overall setup. That matches my thoughts perfectly

Shift that circle 50 miles south and east and you have my going forecast ;-)

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:34 am

And the 06z NAM continues the foot long obliteration from Nassau County westward, including 16" in NYC proper. Finally. Going to be EXCITED about a damn storm. G'night fellow crazies.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:53 am

P.S.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS now in effect for, well, everyone and their...

MOG

by **WeatherBob** Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:34 am

Soul - have a snow m for the 06z NAM?

by **MattyICE** Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:49 am

6z GFS is way west and warm, though less amped. I know it is the 6z GFS but the NAM is also slightly west as well, while the RGEM, CMC, EURO, UKIE all stay in better spots slightly less tucked. Not putting a ton of stock into it...but something to keep an eye on for the 12z suite. Wondering if with such a block in place we see those last minute southeast ticks.

by **MattyICE** Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:50 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018030606/gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

by **Taffy** Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:12 am

A WSW finally issued for my area

From 10:00pm EST, Tue Mar 6 until 4:00am EST, Thu Mar 8

Action Recommended: Make preparations per the instructions
Issued by: New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service,
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES, EXCEPT 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND MOST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. * WHERE...NEW YORK CITY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT, MIDDLESEX, NASSAU AND NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTIES. * WHEN...FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. CHECK LOCAL DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION SERVICES FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS. &&