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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:02 pm

WHO HAS THE PRECIP MAP?!?!?
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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:02 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Giphy10

Haha this made me LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:02 pm

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 28577967_1647140808697444_7359312251330401801_n

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 28577967_1647140808697444_7359312251330401801_n

Your killing me with this map. What about the eastern half of our sites coverage?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:04 pm

Found that on FB. I am not subscribed to TrueWeather. So do not have eastern view.

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:04 pm

Here it is

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr054.thumb.png.c543c71337c3efce1bd6b6216fb0b612

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 28577967_1647140808697444_7359312251330401801_n

Your killing me with this map.  What about the eastern half of our sites coverage?

Rain told ya told ya

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:08 pm

Rb think were in a good spot with this one? Last one was just heavy slop.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:10 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Rb think were in a good spot with this one?  Last one was just heavy slop.

Affirmative. No slop up here lmao

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:14 pm

Good just got my family another Husky and this will be her first snow with us.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:17 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Good just got my family another Husky and this will be her first snow with us.

D'aweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee :')

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:23 pm

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf_tsnow_nj_9.png.424d67eb6b024c2454976a683d112832

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:27 pm

I have a question Ray or Frank.  Looking at the surface and 500mb between hr 30-36...that's when we close off H5 south of LI. But notice in the first images we have a dual low but H5 is not closed off yet.  Just looking at this the euro looks to me to be focusing on the Low along the coast when in reality the best PVA looks to be with the low further off the coast.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf105
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf107


Then 6 hrs later H5 closes off and the surface Low has already been pulled underneath it?  Im not buying it.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf106
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf108

6 hrs after that the LP center jumps nearly due east while still strengthening and the CCB jumps from over the NYC metro area and points well west to all of a sudden well N&E over Red Sox Suck?  In theory if that were correct the LP should be occluding by hr 36-42 therefore weakening; not strengthening.  Personally I'm not buying the track of the main low.  I think the euro was focusing precip around the wrong Low and the track will be east of what it showed..not by a whole lot but not like it showed.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf109

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Smittyaj623 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:33 pm

Hey! New Member here. Been following this storm for sooo long, after the Euro...decided to drop a Nuke on everyone but the coast, is their any chance of the coast getting some White Gold??

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:35 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I have a question Ray or Frank.  Looking at the surface and 500mb between hr 30-36...that's when we close off H5 south of LI. But notice in the first images we have a dual low but H5 is not closed off yet.  Just looking at this the euro looks to me to be focusing on the Low along the coast when in reality the best PVA looks to be with the low further off the coast.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf105
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf107


Then 6 hrs later H5 closes off and the surface Low has already been pulled underneath it?  Im not buying it.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf106
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf108

6 hrs after that the LP center jumps nearly due east while still strengthening and the CCB jumps from over the NYC metro area  and points well west to all of a sudden well N&E over Red Sox Suck?  In theory if that were correct the LP should be occluding by hr 36-42 therefore weakening; not strengthening.  Personally I'm not buying the track of the main low.  I think the euro was focusing precip around the wrong Low and the track will be east of what it showed..not by a whole lot but not like it showed.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf109

This cyclops is cyclops what cyclops @crankywxguy cyclops has cyclops been cyclops saying cyclops for cyclops two  cyclops days!!!


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:39 pm

Who is cranky guy? You post it but I never go to his site. Whats his name?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:40 pm

Scott, look closer at the H5 vort max at the base of the trough in relation to the trough axis, and this should answer your question. The main show, and this goes back to the long post about two pages back I had in response to Frank's similar thoughts, is the western low because synoptically THAT is where your greatest height falls/pressure drops will be. The other low is really just an artifact in my opinion and will quickly fade. The reason whyyoubsee the jumps ofnthe SLP center are because of this reason: The model is basically throwing two pigs in a feedsack and can't decide which is dominant. In reality, the western one should be, again, in my opinion. I also believe, this particular model is STILL correcting, though mainly with the QPF field more than the low track itself.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:45 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Who is cranky guy?  You post it but I never go to his site.  Whats his name?

Honestly, I have no clue what his real name is. No one does. Lol. But he's the most accurate MET I've seen and MANY reference him. His posts on Twitter are super educational along with his storm entries. Click link below.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:46 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:I have a question Ray or Frank.  Looking at the surface and 500mb between hr 30-36...that's when we close off H5 south of LI. But notice in the first images we have a dual low but H5 is not closed off yet.  Just looking at this the euro looks to me to be focusing on the Low along the coast when in reality the best PVA looks to be with the low further off the coast.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf105
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf107


Then 6 hrs later H5 closes off and the surface Low has already been pulled underneath it?  Im not buying it.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf106
March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf108

6 hrs after that the LP center jumps nearly due east while still strengthening and the CCB jumps from over the NYC metro area  and points well west to all of a sudden well N&E over Red Sox Suck?  In theory if that were correct the LP should be occluding by hr 36-42 therefore weakening; not strengthening.  Personally I'm not buying the track of the main low.  I think the euro was focusing precip around the wrong Low and the track will be east of what it showed..not by a whole lot but not like it showed.  

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf109

This
Great analysis. EURO should of ended up more east resulting in a snow map similar to the 0z run. In reality it doesn't matter anymore. Its now down to the short range models and current map observations from here on out. I'm very confident with 8-12+ amounts west of Hudson River. NYC in the 6-12 range.
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Post by Blaze Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:53 pm

Hey guys I’m a new member my name is Mike. I live in Monmouth County NJ and latest forecasts are showing only 1-3 inches. Is this right? Will it still be a 6-12 inch event in Monmouth County? Please let me know I’m getting nervous this storm will be a bust.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:03 pm

State of Emergency declared for New Jersey.
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:05 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:State of Emergency declared for New Jersey.

Knowing PA, we won't have one...
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Post by Carter bk Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:05 pm

Wow tuff call for u guys how about nyc mayor. He has a tuff call because morning will be maybe a slushy inch but by 230 its might be. Ripping snow with near blizzard condition . or just little snow. Tuff call

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:07 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:State of Emergency declared for New Jersey.

Knowing PA, we won't have one...

and school will be open lol
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Post by DAYBLAZER Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Ecmwf_tsnow_nj_9.png.424d67eb6b024c2454976a683d112832

My god it's jackpotting right over my town. We CANNOT have this happen, this area will be devastated....
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