March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

We shall see, but I find it funny how everybody is throwing out the hottest model in this range and the only one that has remained consistent with others trending toward it, except for the GFS which has also been remarkably consistent. Again western solution makes physical sense to me still.

I think everyone north of Ocean County NJ sees at least 6 inches

rb924119 wrote:We shall see, but I find it funny how everybody is throwing out the hottest model in this range and the only one that has remained consistent with others trending toward it, except for the GFS which has also been remarkably consistent. Again western solution makes physical sense to me still.

the nam? ifi'm not mistaken it show 6-12 " for the city. i'll hug the nam in a heartbeat. btw 12" on the nam for me in lower westchester

rb924119 wrote:We shall see, but I find it funny how everybody is throwing out the hottest model in this range and the only one that has remained consistent with others trending toward it, except for the GFS which has also been remarkably consistent. Again western solution makes physical sense to me still.

Gotta see what the recon plane says...

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Big jump east 18z gfs

forget it soul we see 2 inches.

jon ae you basing your forecast on the gfs. it is the only model that gives our area less than 6" of snow. look for 6-12" from Manhattan north. also james (syo) the north shore of LI should do well also. mike (math) the issue with your area is that snow probably will not accumulate on the heated city roads and sidewalks but the park should do just fine.

no no algae u misunderstood me verbatim gfs gives 2 inches was not a forcast. Nor am I even close to buying it. I'm actually thinking in line of 3km nam and rgem maybe bit less as wet snow. Why lol cuz they the jackpot lol but also been pretty good.

I think it will shift east very soon. I think the western shift they are talking about is just because it isn’t moving as quickly as thought. I believe yesterday’s predictions will come back as reality.

What is real time showing with the system now compared to models up to this pt?

Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

rb924119 wrote:Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

You can always text me, I won't give you any heat

rb924119 wrote:Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

you shouldn't be. you called the last storm 100% to the final detail.

RB - serious question. Not trolling. What would you need to see to change your mind? Or are you locked and loaded?

RJB8525 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

you shouldn't be. you called the last storm 100% to the final detail.

One of the most knowledgable people on the board!

I just saw Lee Goldberg. He said latest guidance has trended east and he thinks the rain/snow line will end up just east of NYC. He gave a scenario where he could see 4-5" in Manhattan, while the Bronx can see 8 or 9!

So here is my final call snow map. As you can see, it's only a subtle difference from my map last night. Really not a big change at all (I almost wasn't going to bother with an update). The biggest difference is probably in South Jersey in the immediate Philly area. I also pushed the 3-6 a little closer to NYC from LI. I tried to account in these maps for the idea that if there is a switch to rain even briefly during the daylight it could hinder snow from sticking for a bit when it goes back to snow. With that here it is, for better or worse:
Green: Mostly rain. Likely will end as snow but no more than a slushy inch or two.
Pink: Snow mixing with Rain during the day then ending as Snow. The mixing will keep totals down a bit. 3-6".
Blue: Mostly Snow. May mix with Rain in some spots between the pink and orange, but only briefly. 6-10".
Orange: All Snow and heavy at that. 10-15".

I heard Governor Murphy declared state of emergency..can they open schools??

RJB8525 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

you shouldn't be. you called the last storm 100% to the final detail.

Fake news. rb has been the best forecaster on here this winter but many people did not accumulate where he said we would. That said he was still better than anyone else I saw

weatherwatchermom wrote:I heard Governor Murphy declared state of emergency..can the open schools??

No
Hrdps baby solid not budging love this Sr model

PA has a state of emergency now.

rb924119 wrote:Jesus, I'm taking heat everywhere for what I think lmao good thing there aren't any rotten tomatoes around or I'd be looking like the new Heinz mascot ahahaha

Your prediction of a tucked in solution took a hit when the GFS went east. That leaves the NAM on its own, and I believe it will be east at 0z. Don't get me wrong, a closer to the coast scenario could ultimately win out in the end, but the latest trends has made it less likely this afternoon. Tonights runs will be interesting to say the least.

@crankywxguy: "Process matters, models are stupid and fault with renders, then cause focus stealing ARGUMENTS "its west" .. "no its east". IT IS NEITHER. It's models screwing up the occlusion render at the surface run to run or suite to suite. All models IDENTICAL since last night."

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I heard Governor Murphy declared state of emergency..can the open schools??

No
Hrdps baby solid not budging love this Sr model

not quite as intense rates but still great. Why pay a state of emergency? It's go b just as bad in NY and NJ.

Hrdps!!! 20 inches NYC and 15 to 24 much of area.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I heard Governor Murphy declared state of emergency..can the open schools??

No
Hrdps baby solid not budging love this Sr model

not quite as intense rates but still great. Why pay a state of emergency? It's go b just as bad in NY and NJ.

Pretty much so they can move stuff around without the redtape right now. But last time we had Stella, they never did and they didn't get any funding for it...

Down to 41* here. Nice temp drop from my high of 48*. Got a little nervous when I saw it hit 48 just after noon. But looks like it's going to settle back into the 30s after dark as projected.