March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Is this cutoff going to be too much even with the LP being more south and East? Am I going to get rain rain rain.. and can another tick East hangs that difference?

adamfitz1969 wrote:This map shows NYC getting 5-6 inches per hour, incredulous!!

Sexier than real models lol, we do incredible too, getting into those rates, add in 40mph winds i would expect blizzard warnings IF the snow is this nuts.

jmanley32 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:This map shows NYC getting 5-6 inches per hour, incredulous!!

Sexier than real models lol

Absolutely remarkable run this last hour, these storms never move East this late. We are all going to get hammered.

Ridiculous.....

sroc4 wrote:I'm going on the record aS SAYING I PROB SHOULD NOT BE CHANGING MY ORIGINAL MAP, BUT HERE IS MY second and  FINAL CALL WITH CHANGES ANYWAY.  Sorry Just looked up to see I hit caps.  I'm too lazy to change it.  Happy tracking boys and girls.  THIS WAS A TOUGH ONE!

Amazing that angle change on Long Island just crosses over wading river

I just have to reiterate that even 8-10 inches of heavy wet snow is going to do some serious tree damage on top of the weakened stuff from the last storm. Con Edison had better get a good night's sleep.

sroc4 wrote:I'm going on the record aS SAYING I PROB SHOULD NOT BE CHANGING MY ORIGINAL MAP, BUT HERE IS MY second and  FINAL CALL WITH CHANGES ANYWAY.  Sorry Just looked up to see I hit caps.  I'm too lazy to change it.  Happy tracking boys and girls.  THIS WAS A TOUGH ONE!

I guess your not buying tthese runs for coastal plain

The storm really is not moving a lot east, just enough east though. I don’t know what the distance between the grid points on the NAM is but I would assume they are maybe 30 miles. If that is the case, the margin of error is automatically 30 miles so it is not a surprise that when the model captures the entire storm basically in a 24 hour period, the margin of error should be the smallest. RB, do you have a comment on that?

I think I will just wait and see what happens now...

adamfitz1969 wrote:Ridiculous.....

Don't really like this map. Anyone got a better one with purple on LI?

gigs68 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:Ridiculous.....

Don't really like this map.  Anyone got a better one with purple on LI?

This is 18z 3k map, the 00z 3k had purple to about mid-suffolk.

I just checked the grid points on the NAM and it is approx 15 miles. So, a shift of 30 miles when the model captures the system within a 24 hour period is not that surprising. If you throw in some data inaccuracies , you can be off by 30 miles on a run by run basis until the storm is entirely captured or almost entirely captured in a 24 hour period.

00z NAM is colder than 18z

18z gfs and 00z nam trended east or colder. 00z runs have recon data ingested in them. Also, 00z rgem coming out now and it looks great like it's prior runs. The most consistent model in my opinion. In other words, I remain confident with my 2nd call snow map and will keep it as my final

RGEM

Mt Holly already discussing upping their totals toward the south and east by the 4am update. Upton would likely follow suit.

Precip moving in fast from the looks of the radar

Can someone explain the rgem with? A quick retrograde into nj then ene?

SoulSingMG wrote:Mt Holly already discussing upping their totals toward the south and east by the 4am update. Upton would likely follow suit.

Where did you see that? Can you post it please

Hopefully DeBlasio changes his mind, right soon.

Frank personally think u gonna bust way low for NYC and dourrpund areas but I also trust in ur snalysis and sroc. Though really hoping 3km nam.snd rgem are spot on. I guess you are not buying them.

I thought I saw a retrograde on one of the recent model runs S well. Figured my eyes were playing tricks on me.

Jman - without seeing anything that motion is suggestive of the upper level low pulling the surface low towards it. It then captures it and then moves it along with it as the system starts to be come vertically stacked. That commonly happens in the begining stages of occlusion.

aiannone wrote:Precip moving in fast from the looks of the radar

Currently looks like a giant green ball of craziness headed right for us all.

RGEM