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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:39 pm

I'm going on the record aS SAYING I PROB SHOULD NOT BE CHANGING MY ORIGINAL MAP, BUT HERE IS MY second and  FINAL CALL WITH CHANGES ANYWAY.  Sorry Just looked up to see I hit caps.  I'm too lazy to change it.  Happy tracking boys and girls. THIS WAS A TOUGH ONE!

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Snow_m14

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@adamfitz1969 wrote:This map shows NYC getting 5-6 inches per hour, incredulous!!

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 5a9f4c7804bb1_00z3kmslp203618.png.3e21b8a424c4583a0f6a65601a2237f1

Sexier than real models lol


Absolutely remarkable run this last hour, these storms never move East this late. We are all going to get hammered.

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Post by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:42 pm

Ridiculous.....

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Sn10_acc.us_ne

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Scullybutcher Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I'm going on the record aS SAYING I PROB SHOULD NOT BE CHANGING MY ORIGINAL MAP, BUT HERE IS MY second and  FINAL CALL WITH CHANGES ANYWAY.  Sorry Just looked up to see I hit caps.  I'm too lazy to change it.  Happy tracking boys and girls.  THIS WAS A TOUGH ONE!

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Snow_m14

Amazing that angle change on Long Island just crosses over wading river
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:45 pm

I just have to reiterate that even 8-10 inches of heavy wet snow is going to do some serious tree damage on top of the weakened stuff from the last storm. Con Edison had better get a good night's sleep.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I'm going on the record aS SAYING I PROB SHOULD NOT BE CHANGING MY ORIGINAL MAP, BUT HERE IS MY second and  FINAL CALL WITH CHANGES ANYWAY.  Sorry Just looked up to see I hit caps.  I'm too lazy to change it.  Happy tracking boys and girls.  THIS WAS A TOUGH ONE!

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Snow_m14

I guess your not buying tthese runs for coastal plain
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:47 pm

The storm really is not moving a lot east, just enough east though. I don’t know what the distance between the grid points on the NAM is but I would assume they are maybe 30 miles. If that is the case, the margin of error is automatically 30 miles so it is not a surprise that when the model captures the entire storm basically in a 24 hour period, the margin of error should be the smallest. RB, do you have a comment on that?
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:47 pm

I think I will just wait and see what happens now...
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Post by gigs68 Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:47 pm

@adamfitz1969 wrote:Ridiculous.....

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Sn10_acc.us_ne

Don't really like this map. Anyone got a better one with purple on LI?
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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Empty Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:55 pm

@gigs68 wrote:
@adamfitz1969 wrote:Ridiculous.....

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Sn10_acc.us_ne

Don't really like this map.  Anyone got a better one with purple on LI?

This is 18z 3k map, the 00z 3k had purple to about mid-suffolk.


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:58 pm

I just checked the grid points on the NAM and it is approx 15 miles. So, a shift of 30 miles when the model captures the system within a 24 hour period is not that surprising. If you throw in some data inaccuracies , you can be off by 30 miles on a run by run basis until the storm is entirely captured or almost entirely captured in a 24 hour period.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:59 pm

00z NAM is colder than 18z

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Namconus_asnow_neus_13

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:01 pm

18z gfs and 00z nam trended east or colder. 00z runs have recon data ingested in them. Also, 00z rgem coming out now and it looks great like it's prior runs. The most consistent model in my opinion. In other words, I remain confident with my 2nd call snow map and will keep it as my final

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Post by aiannone Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:04 pm

RGEMMarch 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Eefffa10
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:06 pm

Mt Holly already discussing upping their totals toward the south and east by the 4am update. Upton would likely follow suit.
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Post by aiannone Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:07 pm

Precip moving in fast from the looks of the radar
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:07 pm

Can someone explain the rgem with? A quick retrograde into nj then ene?
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Post by aiannone Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:08 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Mt Holly already discussing upping their totals toward the south and east by the 4am update. Upton would likely follow suit.

Where did you see that? Can you post it please
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Post by adamfitz1969 Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:10 pm

Hopefully DeBlasio changes his mind, right soon.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:12 pm

Frank personally think u gonna bust way low for NYC and dourrpund areas but I also trust in ur snalysis and sroc. Though really hoping 3km nam.snd rgem are spot on. I guess you are not buying them.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:13 pm

I thought I saw a retrograde on one of the recent model runs S well. Figured my eyes were playing tricks on me.
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:14 pm

Jman - without seeing anything that motion is suggestive of the upper level low pulling the surface low towards it. It then captures it and then moves it along with it as the system starts to be come vertically stacked. That commonly happens in the begining stages of occlusion.


Last edited by WeatherBob on Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:16 pm

@aiannone wrote:Precip moving in fast from the looks of the radar

Currently looks like a giant green ball of craziness headed right for us all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:17 pm

RGEM

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 IMG_0979.thumb.PNG.332a111ed8a8ec066a41ae2849f2b944

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 IMG_0980.thumb.PNG.d2c37ed7ae2f7f1adacb5cf7d77565ed


March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 IMG_0981.thumb.PNG.0bee10f387a3a70410c50bb1dbc35938

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:18 pm

March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 IMG_0982.thumb.PNG.18256afc35bb886ec8d1e37a8b8f24d2

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