Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

mikeypizano wrote:What times does the Euro run?

Starts at 1pm.

I have to wait for someone to post it, I don’t have access

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I actually do not care what surface shows. Drastic improvements at H5 level (faster and stronger northern stream with weaker confluence) will guarantee more snow Monday night into Tuesday.

Those upper air patterns show the northern energy pulling this to us rather than kicking it OTS.That has been the wild card from a few days ago that could make or break this storm.From my limited understanding, it's the upper air patterns that steer these babies.

You just brought tears to my eyes, doc. Much like Jman a couple weeks back, your knowledge and understanding are growing. It would appear you are a wonderful exception to the stereotype "Old dogs (meant with utmost respect, of course) can't learn new tricks" I love it!!!!

I am not going to comment any more than to say this is why we cannot write this off until at least Sunday. As the pieces come ashore and are better sampled the true timing and strength of them comes into focus. For better or worse. Syo. You are  absolutely correct in that the last storm trended north and west in the modeling but last minute went east. But, that was a Miller B setup.  This is a Miller A set up with the same block in place.  I would expect if we continue to see more and more phasing, or stronger phasing then the north west trend will continue because more phasing shifts the storm track more north, and if there’s enough phasing could even pull the storm track north west before being shifted back Northeast as it pulls out.

encouraging signs thus far today. Let’s hope it continues by this time tomorrow for now....

We track!!!

Txt for the encouraging posts Frank!!Sitting in hair salon...and hearing all the old biddies..lol.not there yet....saying how it's not going to snow...and the weather people are always wrong...just smiling and reading the latest posts... superstitious and not mentioning a thing.... come one storm....come on Euro join the party!!

No clue how to post pic here but JMA is a hit!

Boxing day euro run?

Let's hope!!

Ladies and gents, of the plethora of events we already have to draw from as prime examples of why pattern recognition is SO important when juxtaposing it with modeling, this is yet ANOTHER example. If you build it, it will come. I'm not saying that this is definitely going to happen, but as doc, mugsy, and many of us have stated throughout the seasons, the upper levels set the surface, and again, we have a favorable synoptic (large-scale) pattern that more often than not equates to significant East Coast cyclogenesis. We still have a ways to go, but to say the shifts in modeling are encouraging over the last 36 hours would be an understatement. This still has a ton of room to come west, and I still strongly think it will for several reasons. We just have to play the waiting game to see if those suspicions have merit. Track on!!

Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

Thanks rb really appreciate your input.

rb924119 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I actually do not care what surface shows. Drastic improvements at H5 level (faster and stronger northern stream with weaker confluence) will guarantee more snow Monday night into Tuesday.

Those upper air patterns show the northern energy pulling this to us rather than kicking it OTS.That has been the wild card from a few days ago that could make or break this storm.From my limited understanding, it's the upper air patterns that steer these babies.

You just brought tears to my eyes, doc. Much like Jman a couple weeks back, your knowledge and understanding are growing. It would appear you are a wonderful exception to the stereotype "Old dogs (meant with utmost respect, of course) can't learn new tricks" I love it!!!!

TY, rb, for that boost! Yes, you and the other long range crew experts have me SLOWLY getting more knowledge about upper air steering patterns! Every day is a new day and if you have an open mind, another bit of learning can come your way!!!

Was Stella a Miller A? Not quite sure on differences between Aand B...

rb924119 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

My concern is if the low fully phases with the northern shortwave. If that were to happen we would have a triple phased cyclone on our hands. The problem for coastal sections is that triple phasers quite often end up being coastal huggers which would lead to temp and dry slot issues.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

My concern is if the low fully phases with the northern shortwave. If that were to happen we would have a triple phased cyclone on our hands. The problem for coastal sections is that triple phasers quite often end up being coastal huggers which would lead to temp and dry slot issues.

PRECISELY. And given my thinking, this is a very plausible option on the table right now.

mikeypizano wrote:Was Stella a Miller A? Not quite sure on differences between Aand B...

Pretty sure either a Miller-A or C, am not able to confirm, though, and going off my memory is risky AT BEST lmfao

rb924119 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

My concern is if the low fully phases with the northern shortwave. If that were to happen we would have a triple phased cyclone on our hands. The problem for coastal sections is that triple phasers quite often end up being coastal huggers which would lead to temp and dry slot issues.

PRECISELY. And given my thinking, this is a very plausible option on the table right now.

On the other hand RB triple phasers have some extreme dynamics associated with them. Take the March superstorm of 93 for instance. The low center cut well west of me into Jersey and I still ended up with 11'' of snow before turning into a _hit load of sleet. Never turned into rain!

Was the storm last March 14th a Miller A ? I know we even had mixing issues in my neck of the woods.

JMA on board with a 974 low at the BM. If the EURO joins the party, this place will explode.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

My concern is if the low fully phases with the northern shortwave. If that were to happen we would have a triple phased cyclone on our hands. The problem for coastal sections is that triple phasers quite often end up being coastal huggers which would lead to temp and dry slot issues.

PRECISELY. And given my thinking, this is a very plausible option on the table right now.

On the other hand RB triple phasers have some extreme dynamics associated with them. Take the March superstorm of 93 for instance. The low center cut well west of me into Jersey and I still ended up with 11'' of snow before turning into a _hit load of sleet. Never turned into rain!

Oh no doubt. My was just that there would be a change from snow along the coastal plain if that happened, while north and west remain snow. There would definitely be a shot at great front-end snow event, regardless, as the frontogenetical forcing alone would be insane when overlapped with the other forcing mechanisms in play.

BTW HOLY 12z GEFS FOR THE I-95!!!! 6-10" MEAN!!!!!

If all holds together with subsequent runs, looks like another Delmarva bomber with a good 6 to 8 hrs of good snowfall rates as the low heads NE to off the SE New England coast. All I can say at this point after low 20’s inches of snow is “Bring it on baby”

Bernie Rayno: IMO GFS is too far W with storm (off the new eng coast),EURO  likely better.Having said that, this looks like a classic situation that even with a farther E track there will be much more precip on back side (due to 500 mb low to west) of storm across New England that euro shows"

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I actually do not care what surface shows. Drastic improvements at H5 level (faster and stronger northern stream with weaker confluence) will guarantee more snow Monday night into Tuesday.

Those upper air patterns show the northern energy pulling this to us rather than kicking it OTS.That has been the wild card from a few days ago that could make or break this storm.From my limited understanding, it's the upper air patterns that steer these babies.

Doc. rb actually posted a couple of days ago that he thought the northern piece would move more due south into the backside causing a more nw movement and more of a phase. That’s what’s the GFS just showed

rb924119 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning everyone. I have a question for our forecasters. Will this effect the EPA area. Especially Southern Poconos ?

I think so. And I think it *could* end up jackpotting us, in a relative sense, though, right now, the coastal plain is still favored.

My concern is if the low fully phases with the northern shortwave. If that were to happen we would have a triple phased cyclone on our hands. The problem for coastal sections is that triple phasers quite often end up being coastal huggers which would lead to temp and dry slot issues.

PRECISELY. And given my thinking, this is a very plausible option on the table right now.

On the other hand RB triple phasers have some extreme dynamics associated with them. Take the March superstorm of 93 for instance. The low center cut well west of me into Jersey and I still ended up with 11'' of snow before turning into a _hit load of sleet. Never turned into rain!

Oh no doubt. My was just that there would be a change from snow along the coastal plain if that happened, while north and west remain snow. There would definitely be a shot at great front-end snow event, regardless, as the frontogenetical forcing alone would be insane when overlapped with the other forcing mechanisms in play.

BTW HOLY 12z GEFS FOR THE I-95!!!! 6-10" MEAN!!!!!

BOYAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
Her we go peeps - I am fricking pumped - spelling error galore and maps galore get ready she is a comin!! Dr No just needs to show me the H5 close and I mean close if not better and then it is total full tilt game on here!!




Syo true date on the lat minute east shift and what Scott said is so true for Miler B's one thing for surely that will aid in this set up is that the PNA is huge and perfectly position as I wrote about 4 pages back. Miller A's love and I mean they luv to go N/S orientation track.

We have the polar jet coming into play as well so cold air is here.

What did I say earlier a arm pit hair away from a bomb. Hey if it fully phases over the TN Valley what are we going to do but we want this phasing on the VA Capes and the block means business as well to slow this sucker up.

Mugs, hypothetically, if it cuts off say on the Delmarva coast , do you think it will slow down that much? I can see it slowing down a lot only if that upper level feature over the Great Lakes drops down and catches it. Is that likely to happen?

Has euro started