Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:02 pm

I can't wait to see 00z 3km hoping for similar to 18z. I know temper any expectations but it's still fun. Oh btw having a hurricane at red lobster. They ran out of roidzillas lol

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:“Stay tuned.” They know how close this is.
any update from Upton. They are always more lax than my Holly it seems.

Upton NWS discussion 7 pm:
Main focus during this period is potential for yet another
coastal storm late Monday through Tuesday.

A familiar pattern with NWP is a signal for a coastal storm in the Day 5-7 period, losing the signal in the Day 3 to 4 period, and then coming back with it in within 48 hrs of the storm. This appears to be a function of NWP struggles with phasing of northern and southern stream energy.

This appears to be the case again, with operational models andgood percentage of GEFS/EPS ensemble members having trended closer to the 40/70 lat/lon in the last 24 hours with a bombing offshore low. The main players in this forecast lie in the degree of amplification of a PAC shortwave descending down the front range of the Rockies today and sliding east through the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast US Sunday into Monday, and then its interaction with a large polar low descending into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday Night. SBU CSTAR ensemble sensitivity lies in the evolution of the omega blocking over the Eastern Canada, and the downstream effects of the evolution of the deep eastern PAC trough over the next 24 hours. Would expect models to have a better handle on this in the next 24 hours as the these elements are better remotely sensed and l initialized in the models.
Based on ensemble qpf probs, moderate potential exists for an advisory level snow (3+ inches) for the Monday Night through Tuesday time period if low pressure continues current ensemble mean track of around 300 miles southeast of LI. Meanwhile, there is a low potential for strong winds and warning level snows(6+ inches), which would be realized if low pressure tracks closer to the 40/70 benchmark as indicated by a notable numbers of ensemble members.

Thermal profiles support mainly snow, but solar insolation, boundary layer temps, elevation/maritime effects, and precipitation intensity are always complicating factors for snow
accum this time of year. Monitor subsequent forecasts through the weekend for the latest on this storm.

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:04 pm

Hearing SREF members are coming in way amped compared to previous runs, which could be a huge sign that the NAM is going to come in in a similar manner.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:06 pm

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:“Stay tuned.” They know how close this is.
any update from Upton. They are always more lax than my Holly it seems.
Upton NWS discussion 7 pm:
Main focus during this period is potential for yet another
coastal storm late Monday through Tuesday.

A familiar pattern with NWP is a signal for a coastal storm in
the Day 5-7 period, losing the signal in the Day 3 to 4 period,
and then coming back with it in within 48 hrs of the storm. This
appears to be a function of NWP struggles with phasing of
northern and southern stream energy.

This appears to be the case again, with operational models and
good percentage of GEFS/EPS ensemble members having trended
closer to the 40/70 lat/lon in the last 24 hours with a bombing
offshore low. The main players in this forecast lie in the
degree of amplification of a PAC shortwave descending down the
front range of the Rockies today and sliding east through the
Tennessee River Valley/Southeast US Sunday into Monday, and then
its interaction with a large polar low descending into the
Great Lakes Monday into Monday Night. SBU CSTAR ensemble
sensitivity lies in the evolution of the omega blocking over the
Eastern Canada, and the downstream effects of the evolution of
the deep eastern PAC trough over the next 24 hours. Would expect
models to have a better handle on this in the next 24 hours as
the these elements are better remotely sensed and initialized in
the models.

Based on ensemble qpf probs, moderate potential exists for an
advisory level snow (3+ inches) for the Monday Night through
Tuesday time period if low pressure continues current ensemble
mean track of around 300 miles southeast of LI. Meanwhile, there
is a low potential for strong winds and warning level snows(6+
inches), which would be realized if low pressure tracks closer
to the 40/70 benchmark as indicated by a notable numbers of
ensemble members.

Thermal profiles support mainly snow, but solar insolation,
boundary layer temps, elevation/maritime effects, and
precipitation intensity are always complicating factors for snow
accum this time of year. Monitor subsequent forecasts through
the weekend for the latest on this storm.

okay they on it too even mentioning 6+ and strong winds. Bold for nws this many days out.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:Hearing SREF members are coming in way amped compared to previous runs, which could be a huge sign that the NAM is going to come in in a similar manner.

sweet post maps sref if u can!! I'm mobile or I'd post the nam.

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Hearing SREF members are coming in way amped compared to previous runs, which could be a huge sign that the NAM is going to come in in a similar manner.
sweet post maps sref if u can!! I'm mobile or I'd post the nam.

I can't either lol mobile at work aha sorry gang :/

by **frank 638** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:17 pm

Joe cioffi has his first snow map of course it will change he has the city and Nassau County for a 4in no more Suffolk County and parts of Connecticut 8 to possibly a foot and 2 to 4 inches of snow for West of the city in north and west

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:34 pm

OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!

don't do that when u can't post lol. What's it show for the area?

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:37 pm

About 4-5” right?

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:38 pm

I really doubted this and am still kinda hesitant but I am in and till the end of or die as this prolly our last chance. And coming at night is great at coast. I may actually cash in.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:38 pm

billg315 wrote:About 4-5” right?

that's a lot? Well for mean yeah I guess it is.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!
don't do that when u can't post lol. What's it show for the area?

here. (still not on board ;-)

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 14 F431c910

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!
don't do that when u can't post lol. What's it show for the area?

here. (still not on board ;-) your not on board? We'll get on the bus we leaving lol

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:52 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!
don't do that when u can't post lol. What's it show for the area?

here. (still not on board ;-) your not on board? We'll get on the bus we leaving lol

Lol, I refuse! My guess is the 00z's will put a nail in this baby's coffin now that the main players are better sampled, but that's a hunch. Fun to track, nonetheless! SREF'S are getting a lot of attention on wx Twitter right now though, haha. How reliable are they 3 days out? Or are they more used for "trend" guidance...?

by adamfitz1969 Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:52 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:57 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:OMG THE SREFS!!!!!!!!!! WHAT JUMP IN MEAN SNOWFALL!!!!
don't do that when u can't post lol. What's it show for the area?

here. (still not on board ;-) your not on board? We'll get on the bus we leaving lol

Lol, I refuse! My guess is the 00z's will put a nail in this baby's coffin now that the main players are better sampled, but that's a hunch. Fun to track, nonetheless! SREF'S are getting a lot of attention on wx Twitter right now though, haha. How reliable are they 3 days out? Or are they more used for "trend" guidance...?

if that happens it's ur fault lol

by **mikeypizano** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:58 pm

Heard they sent in a recon plane?

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:59 pm

00z nam out to hr 15 I'll post what If it's good at surface or not.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:01 pm

Just checked nhc. Yes they sending tomorrow if necessary

by SnowForest Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:12 pm

Here is a site where you can access SREF plumes:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

It shows a graph of snowfall totals for the various SREF members. Some are up to 20 inches, others keep us at 0. It is encouraging to see the higher totals. Mean for NYC is 6.5 inches at LGA. Mean is 5.6 inches at Philadelphia.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:13 pm

At 21 hours the 500 energy is over MO/TN. Storm in Canadian maritimes seems to be suppressing any ridging off the East Coast but at hour 27 they seem to rising a bit along the coast.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:16 pm

Hour 30 surface low is trying to get going along the coast, starting to get some ridging off the coast.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:21 pm

Hour 36 surface low is well developed off the Carolina coast. Upper level energy is back over Georgia.
I could be wrong but looks like the low in the maritime is weakening or moving a bit and heights are rising along the coast.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 pm

Hr 39 a deeper lp same position as 18z off Carolinas bit stronger.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:25 pm

Wish one of our real experts was here right now. lol It looks like the upper level energy is over GA and the trough is digging in and going a little more neutral from positive as heights are rising along the coast. But I don't know what the hell I'm doing so I could be wrong.

by **Vinnydula** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:26 pm

Looks east and weaker

by Sponsored content