Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

gfs further west if i see correctly. or precip is anyways.

00z GFS...so close yet so far. Big day of model runs tomorrow. We can still do this.

jmanley32 wrote:gfs is looking decent at surface at hr 36, also note frank changed the SCI date to the 13th, but this thread is 12th so im a bit confused which day is it?

Monday night into Tuesday...

Heights higher and less confluence. This should be a much better run. Lets see...

Monster, can we get that turn more to the north sooner by any chance?

0Z EURO gives NYC a coating to an inch of snow Monday night into Tuesday. Meanwhile, eastern Massachusetts gets crushed by a blizzard...

Also, this is the last 1 AM 0Z EURO until November. The clocks change soon...

Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO gives NYC a coating to an inch of snow Monday night into Tuesday.  Meanwhile, eastern Massachusetts gets crushed by a blizzard...

This scenario is one that seems more and more likely with the redevelopment happening closer to the Gulf of Maine once system interacts with that late-incoming vort

6z RGEM is west. 6z NAM and NAM 3km are also west.

Mt. Holly seems pretty optimistic that something is going to happen to at least advisory level for EPA and NNJ.  I am happy to see they think the snow will not be as heavy as the last storm, as my area does not need any more downed trees or power outages. (Schools closed for three days around here last week!)

As of 4:20 am:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**One more day of recovery from the March 2nd and 7th
snowstorms, then we prepare for some snow related travel
commuting problems for the late Monday and early Tuesday
commutes**

SNOWMAP is on our winter wx page and we`ll post SM around 6A.


Hazards: probable winter weather advisories for portions of the
area in the 18z Mon-18z-Tue time frame for I78 north and maybe
in the Philly-Wilmington stretch Monday night. Gale watches
have posted. A coastal flood advisory may be needed for the
Tuesday 7-9 AM high tide cycle along the Atlantic coasts of NJ
and DE.

Snow type should be colder and more powdery than the previous
two storms as this is setting up as a classic winter nor`easter
with blocking holding cold high pressure in place to our north
and phasing allowing the explosive development of a ~970mb sfc
low as it passes east of Cape Cod Tuesday morning.

The big question for our area...does it come close enough for a
substantial event, or just sort of graze us. Even though our
Sunday morning forecast is relatively tame compared to last
Wednesday, we advise continuing to monitor. Below explains why.

Model of choice: we`re looking for global models to trend a
little west of the current 00z/11th fcst cycles. Normally I buy
into the NAM and NAMNEST for mid Atlantic cyclogenesis but only
when it appears the NAM is onto the pattern with reasonable
upper level and sfc evolution. Yesterdays 12z and 18z cycles
looked reasonable but the 00z/11 cycle dropped the lead short
wave so far south, deferring to a much stronger northern Sw,
that I did not think this was realistic. I could be wrong but I
anticipate the NAM to revert to a more energetic closer to the
coast solution in the next couple of cycles and once that
happens, then we need to pay closer attention to the 3KM
NAMNEST.

There still can be tracking issues but overall I think weighting
the NAM ECMWF and GFS in that order will probably yield the
best result.

Impacts: Snow falling at night will have a much better chance of
accumulating on roads so that residents and travelers early Tuesday
morning should be greeted by a fresh cover of snow, and probably
some slippery conditions. Adverse impacts could develop Monday
afternoon since snow growth-fgen forcing looks fairly robust
vcnty I95 and the higher terrain can accumulate easier due to
the colder than normal late winter temperatures.


.....

Monday...Cloudy. No matter what model you use,  precipitation
develops ahead of the deepening eastward advancing cold trough. The
questions are when does it turn to snow and how much?  Northeast
wind gust 15-20 MPH.  Monday evening commute could be hazardous,
especially in the suburbs. Confidence: average.

Monday night...snow over all of our area. How much? probably
advisory level in parts of e PA and much of N NJ. Northeast
wind becomes north and northwest late. Snowgrowth-FGEN forcing
well west of the parent cyclone could play a role here as well
colder snow ratios. Confidence: well above average.

Tuesday...leftover snow or is it scattered flurries.  Northwest wind
gusty 20-25 MPH during the afternoon. Confidence: average.

6z GEM-LAM is west too!!!

O06z nam and we back in business! 3km close to a roidzilla into nyc and is for Li 12km came further north and west but still doesn't give much precip. Imo great run.

                                                                 

Euro got it missing us and headed for a New England B word?

oldtimer wrote:Euro got it missing us and headed for a New England B word?

on the over night run yes but I don't think that's final solution yet.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Upton thinks its coming folks...

                                                                 

AS compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended slower/farther south before emerging off the southeast U.S. coast. This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to bring storms in setups like this closer to th coast within a couple of days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the benchmark than what the average 00z track shows.

So close to a major event for at least some of the forum, definitely favors the coastal areas this time around. Would love to see a 75 mile jump WEST with the 12z suite - eastern NE is going to get blitzed!!!

Radz wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Upton thinks its coming folks...

                                                                 

AS compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended slower/farther south before emerging off the southeast U.S. coast. This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to bring storms in setups like this closer to th coast within a couple of days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the benchmark than what the average 00z track shows.

So close to a major event for at least some of the forum, definitely favors the coastal areas this time around. Would love to see a 75 mile jump WEST with the 12z suite - eastern NE is going to get blitzed!!!

east?! I hope u mean west.

Blah all of eastern ne under wsw. I guess it's inevitable that will be the jackpot even if we see a decent shift for us to see a bigger storm. Is a godzilla still possible?

A near BM track like what the 06Z RGEM is showing would be very nice for many members. Seems NWS is favoring that attm. Hopefully we'll get lucky!

New thread:

jmanley32 wrote:

Radz wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Upton thinks its coming folks...

                                                                 

AS compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended slower/farther south before emerging off the southeast U.S. coast. This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to bring storms in setups like this closer to th coast within a couple of days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the benchmark than what the average 00z track shows.

So close to a major event for at least some of the forum, definitely favors the coastal areas this time around. Would love to see a 75 mile jump WEST with the 12z suite - eastern NE is going to get blitzed!!!

east?! I hope u mean west.

Yes Edited lol

I should probably throw out a word of caution for people reading my posts in regard to this storm: I operate in a slightly different plane than some in regard to this particular event (if not most snow events) in that I consider it a win if I get a 2-4” or 3-5” snow out of a system that 3 days ago was out to sea well south of us without a flake. So last night when I was optimistic about even the less than “perfect” model runs, it was because even the supposedly OTS NAM (it wasn’t what I’d call truly OTS) was giving us an advisory snowfall. That said, I think it’s clear from the models and the wording of the Mt Holly and Upton forecast discussions that we are VERY close to a more significant event and anyone who tells you it definitely isn’t happening should be viewed skeptically. Real meteorologists would never look at this setup and these models and definitively write it off - hence the wording the last two days of the NWS updates. The fact is nobody knows for sure how close this will come to the coast at this moment.