Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Don’t get me wrong this isn’t coming inside the BM. Btw. Euro already stronger and les positive

Boxing Day surprise not happening folks. Max potential for us is a 5-10” west to east across the trip state area and I don’t see that either to be honest.

Not buying euro at all

Why? What did it show?

syosnow94 wrote:Why?  What did it show?

...sends her packing East.

sroc4 wrote:Not buying euro at all

EURO is an eastern outlier. Toss it. Stick with the short range models from here on out. There's been a lot of needless bridge jumping today. The 12z NAM did not make any sense to me. The H5 levels looked gorgeous. I've got a hunch this will correct west tonight into tomorrow and show a BM track.

I hope so, but I gotta be honest I don’t see enough negative to the trough to get this thing to the BM. I see 150 miles SE of he BM and a glancing blow to coastal areas. But hopefully I’m wrong. I’m gonna put out one of my finger paint maps for CP and make totals slightly higher than what I actually think they will be just to account for some westward adjustments of the LP

We also can’t just cherrypick the western guidance just because it’s what we want and toss the eastern ones

Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

Wasn’t accusing anyone specifically Scott. Just a blanket statement

Red= Jackpot of 8”+
Yellow= 4-8”. Highest east
Green= 1-3”
Blue= snow showers. C-1” locally 2” in higher terrain east of Hudson

What is a BM track? Sorry, I'm just trying to learn.

frank 638 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:


Red= Jackpot of 8”+
Yellow= 4-8”. Highest east
Green= 1-3”
Blue= snow showers. C-1” locally 2” in higher terrain east of Hudson

I hope we bring this up I will be happy with 3 to 6 inches

this is higher than u think damn ok I'm do close to been done. lol so basically 0 nyc. And I'm not saying it's a bad map it's actually quite plsudible.

Taffy wrote:What is a BM track? Sorry, I'm just trying to learn.

the 40 70 latitude longitude on the map. It's usually the best spot for a storm to b just at or inside that area to give us a good storm. Stands for bench mark.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)

Well let's see what 18z models do. SR models the lr just don't seem handle things that well but they can't b completely discounted like syo said.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)

Exactly!! I e only ruled out “inside” the BM

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)

Exactly!!  I e only ruled out “inside” the BM

my mistake. No chance or very little? I mean stranger things have happened no?

SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm...

hey hey soul u jumped ship I'm not throwing u the donut lol. I'm staying positive and saying we get around s low end warning snow or high end advisory. Anything more is just gravy. If I am right I'll b able say I was only one not to jump lol

Thanks for taking the time to answer me, Jman.

Soul that has most of our firumnat over a 50% chance of greater than 4”. That’s pretty aggressive on their part. I hope my map busts

10% probability for me. Looks like it's about time to call it a wrap on this winter.

Upton has my area in west/central LI for 2-4” Monday night and 2-4” Tuesday morning. I say they go WS Watches for Suffolk LI at 4 pm and WWA for 3-5 back west through eastern NJ and LHV

syosnow94 wrote:Upton has my area in west/central LI for 2-4” Monday night and 2-4” Tuesday morning. I say they go WS Watches for Suffolk LI at 4 pm and  WWA for 3-5 back west through eastern NJ and LHV

at this pt sounds ok to me. I honestly just want one more snow day Tues lol