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March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:58 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Index.gif.f5e589eb46f137bb1732be488bbc51e0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Taffy Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

I still have an advisory which surprised me. They are saying 2-4". At this point, I'm happy with even the lower end.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:01 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 300mb

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 RAD_MOS_NAT_SATOVL_ANI.thumb.gif.f5932517ce6fd07f935807eb58e601d8

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:05 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Northeast_loop

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 pm

I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:07 pm

UKIE came in west. 10mm = 0.4 qpf = 2-4" of snow (lower ratios)

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 PA_000-072_0000

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

you beat me to it

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

JMA, wow.

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Jma_apcpn_us_3

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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Wait and see, my original map from yesterday will verify and I’ll be kicking myself for changing it. Lol.
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Post by jake732 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

@aiannone wrote:OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur60

Meh. That’s not much different than the current NWS forecast. A little better for the n and w crew which is nice but for me and you no change.

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur61
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:17 pm

@jake732 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?


A low that might get pulled back west a little more than what models have been calling for which brings the precip shield with it

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:20 pm

NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.
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Post by GreyBeard Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18


So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm

Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur62
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:29 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18


So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

Yes. But only if the low was 150 miles further NW

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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:30 pm

HRRRX is 4-11” area wide from west to east.

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Post by GreyBeard Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:34 pm

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/12Mar2018-2.pdf

That was issued at 5:30 AM

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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

NWS doing some weird things.  They raised accumulations to 3-5” for n and w of the city.  Meanwhile they lowered mine to 2-4” east of it.  Head Scratcher!  Very strange considering the track

And 3-8” for the Catskills even further n and w


Last edited by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

CP, HRRR, Canada, JMA all showing us around 4 or 5 inches.Maybe they are seeing a jog west to help us out.I saw that NWS bump up for us and am thrilled! If we can get 5 inches out of a storm which a few days ago was supposed to be nothing, it's a win!!

Maybe a new snow indicator can be made called the Mikey No Likey Indicator, the MNLI.The more negative he gets, the better snow chances for the Hudson Valley! ( just joking Mikey, your the best!).
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Post by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm

OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED
why what they say?
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