Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 pm

OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur60

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 pm

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:58 pm

by **Taffy** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

I still have an advisory which surprised me. They are saying 2-4". At this point, I'm happy with even the lower end.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:01 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:05 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 pm

I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:07 pm

UKIE came in west. 10mm = 0.4 qpf = 2-4" of snow (lower ratios)

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 PA_000-072_0000

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

you beat me to it

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

JMA, wow.

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Jma_apcpn_us_3

by **billg315** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Wait and see, my original map from yesterday will verify and I’ll be kicking myself for changing it. Lol.

by **jake732** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

aiannone wrote:OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333

Meh. That’s not much different than the current NWS forecast. A little better for the n and w crew which is nice but for me and you no change.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:17 pm

jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?

A low that might get pulled back west a little more than what models have been calling for which brings the precip shield with it

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:20 pm

NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm

Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur62

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:29 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

So would this map be considered weather porn?

Yes. But only if the low was 150 miles further NW

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:30 pm

HRRRX is 4-11” area wide from west to east.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:34 pm

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/12Mar2018-2.pdf

That was issued at 5:30 AM

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

NWS doing some weird things. They raised accumulations to 3-5” for n and w of the city. Meanwhile they lowered mine to 2-4” east of it. Head Scratcher! Very strange considering the track

And 3-8” for the Catskills even further n and w

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

CP, HRRR, Canada, JMA all showing us around 4 or 5 inches.Maybe they are seeing a jog west to help us out.I saw that NWS bump up for us and am thrilled! If we can get 5 inches out of a storm which a few days ago was supposed to be nothing, it's a win!!

Maybe a new snow indicator can be made called the Mikey No Likey Indicator, the MNLI.The more negative he gets, the better snow chances for the Hudson Valley! ( just joking Mikey, your the best!).

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm

OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED

why what they say?

by Sponsored content