Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Syo Whats wave 1 doing?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
u mean 06z the 00z nam was a Godzilla.@billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center. I also think NAM is picking up better on sleet near the coast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
I definetely agree with those earlier mentioning power outages with the heavy wet snow. Another factor to add is that the buds are also now on the trees adding even more weight.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
@jmanley32 wrote:u mean 06z the 00z nam was a Godzilla.@billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center. I also think NAM is picking up better on sleet near the coast.
Yes the 6z. I think the 6z got the tightening of the NW gradient right, I just think it had the low center a bit too far east.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
that's why I was concerned nws has basically an all out bluzzard including nyc 12 to 16 gusts to 45 mph. But 06z runs came in half that if even that. Let's hope it's just another model wiper. I'd live to see nws on pt that's a perfect stormsyosnow94 wrote:Upton really bullish with totals wind and thundersnow. Why are they so confident? For a very conservative group of forecasters I’m surprised. Do they not care about the negative trends this morning?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Wish I could b around for 12z play by play but I'll have check in later or eneak to the bathroom lol. Btw so far the job is going well.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:39 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
@oldtimer wrote:Syo Whats wave 1 doing?
Old timer. I defer to Frank and Scott on this, but from what I can tell the storm is not two separate waves really. The first wave slows down and weakens waiting for the trailing energies to catch up to it. This firms our storm which then blows up tomorrow and moves off the Delmarva towards the BM. As far as today we will have nothing on LI. Tonight after midnight through the morning commute we get light mixed precip until the storm starts cranking
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
@SENJsnowman wrote:@billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center.
Do you still think the storm gets close enough to cause mixing issues for coasts?
Yes. The 850 temps seem to stay higher than surface at outset. This time of year that makes sense at coast with east flow. That’s why I think the NAM is more on target with the mixing early than gfs which has almost all snow. But cold air aloft should eventually crash to coast and go to snow.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
u think they cancel schools or early dismissal? Or stick whole day out? Not NYC u know deblasio we could b get 400 inches and schools b opensyosnow94 wrote:@oldtimer wrote:Syo Whats wave 1 doing?
Old timer. I defer to Frank and Scott on this, but from what I can tell the storm is not two separate waves really. The first wave slows down and weakens waiting for the trailing energies to catch up to it. This firms our storm which then blows up tomorrow and moves off the Delmarva towards the BM. As far as today we will have nothing on LI. Tonight after midnight through the morning commute we get light mixed precip until the storm starts cranking
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
WOW at Upton.
They basically have Godzilla for the area. Interesting to see the discrepancy between them and the TV mets.
They basically have Godzilla for the area. Interesting to see the discrepancy between them and the TV mets.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Ughhhh. Simply cannot trust models more than 12 hours out. Of course you know who was warning of this south and east, flatter exit of the storm all night last evening. Now we're seeing models catch up to the idea. I'd be worried anywhere north of a line from Philly NE thru central NJ tbh for a very sharp cut off and not much more than advisory snows.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Going to be interesting just how far north this precip gets with the 1st wave and how heavy it gets. Temperatures only around 32 in CNJ and with dew points in the teens, could be quite the sleet/freezing rain event this afternoon
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