Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

by **oldtimer** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:24 am

Syo Whats wave 1 doing?

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:32 am

billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center. I also think NAM is picking up better on sleet near the coast.

u mean 06z the 00z nam was a Godzilla.

by **2004blackwrx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:36 am

I definetely agree with those earlier mentioning power outages with the heavy wet snow. Another factor to add is that the buds are also now on the trees adding even more weight.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:37 am

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center. I also think NAM is picking up better on sleet near the coast.
u mean 06z the 00z nam was a Godzilla.

Yes the 6z. I think the 6z got the tightening of the NW gradient right, I just think it had the low center a bit too far east.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:37 am

syosnow94 wrote:Upton really bullish with totals wind and thundersnow. Why are they so confident? For a very conservative group of forecasters I’m surprised. Do they not care about the negative trends this morning?

that's why I was concerned nws has basically an all out bluzzard including nyc 12 to 16 gusts to 45 mph. But 06z runs came in half that if even that. Let's hope it's just another model wiper. I'd live to see nws on pt that's a perfect storm

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:38 am

Wish I could b around for 12z play by play but I'll have check in later or eneak to the bathroom lol. Btw so far the job is going well.

by Guest Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:39 am

oldtimer wrote:Syo Whats wave 1 doing?

Old timer. I defer to Frank and Scott on this, but from what I can tell the storm is not two separate waves really. The first wave slows down and weakens waiting for the trailing energies to catch up to it. This firms our storm which then blows up tomorrow and moves off the Delmarva towards the BM. As far as today we will have nothing on LI. Tonight after midnight through the morning commute we get light mixed precip until the storm starts cranking

by **billg315** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:40 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:I should caution again, I do buy the NAM’s idea of a tighter precip shield (which isn’t great for those further N&W) but I think the 0z was too far East with the low center.

Do you still think the storm gets close enough to cause mixing issues for coasts?

Yes. The 850 temps seem to stay higher than surface at outset. This time of year that makes sense at coast with east flow. That’s why I think the NAM is more on target with the mixing early than gfs which has almost all snow. But cold air aloft should eventually crash to coast and go to snow.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:
oldtimer wrote:Syo Whats wave 1 doing?

Old timer. I defer to Frank and Scott on this, but from what I can tell the storm is not two separate waves really. The first wave slows down and weakens waiting for the trailing energies to catch up to it. This firms our storm which then blows up tomorrow and moves off the Delmarva towards the BM. As far as today we will have nothing on LI. Tonight after midnight through the morning commute we get light mixed precip until the storm starts cranking

u think they cancel schools or early dismissal? Or stick whole day out? Not NYC u know deblasio we could b get 400 inches and schools b open

by **amugs** Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:53 am

WOW at Upton.
They basically have Godzilla for the area. Interesting to see the discrepancy between them and the TV mets.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:08 am

Ughhhh. Simply cannot trust models more than 12 hours out. Of course you know who was warning of this south and east, flatter exit of the storm all night last evening. Now we're seeing models catch up to the idea. I'd be worried anywhere north of a line from Philly NE thru central NJ tbh for a very sharp cut off and not much more than advisory snows.

by **Sanchize06** Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:11 am

Going to be interesting just how far north this precip gets with the 1st wave and how heavy it gets. Temperatures only around 32 in CNJ and with dew points in the teens, could be quite the sleet/freezing rain event this afternoon

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