Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Soooo. 2.5” qpf and only 7” of snow. Somethings off
LI sees .7 qpf of sleet!

I’ll kill myself

I just spit out my food lol!

by **Joe Snow** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:51 pm

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 3-21-110

Latest Radar

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:52 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Soooo. 2.5” qpf and only 7” of snow. Somethings off
LI sees .7 qpf of sleet!

I’ll kill myself

I just spit out my food

I just edited above to show the map, 0.5-0.7 sleet, soul we good barely any at all.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:With new recon data in the 00z models let's see if other models waffle as much as the NAM did. To be honest, the NAM has been VERY inconsistent. It keeps waffling on how far N&W banding will go. And on the 00z run, the 700mb low tracked almost over NJ. Does that sound familiar? That is what happened last storm which is why surface temps never went below freezing. Also, that would lead to dry slotting for the immediate coast and LI. So while the NAM was a Roidzilla for areas just west of NYC and a Godzilla N&W, it did cut back substantially for CNJ, Jersey Shore, and portions of LI.
We weren’t dry slotted frank. It showed 2.5” liquid

What I am saying is the precip output was wrong. There would be a dry slot

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_28

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_28

by **2004blackwrx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:54 pm

More models to come we shall see if Nam is onto something or an outlier

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:55 pm

Guess who I'm quoting..... Laughing

"You have to throw the 0z NAM entirely in the trash, especially the 3KM version.
Easy. Look off the MidATL coast. Watch how our lead low NEVER moves on the model & the 2ndary low runs over/through it. AN absolutely impossibility. It's garbage. Amazing garbage, but garbage."

by **Joe Snow** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Soooo. 2.5” qpf and only 7” of snow. Somethings off

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:56 pm

00z rgem looks nothing like 00z nam

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:56 pm

Hi-res nam shows the dry slot better

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Hires_26

you also see rain on LI verbatim

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Hires_27

by **Snow88** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:56 pm

RGEM is further east with the low compared to the Nam and slams NYC and inland areas.

by **aiannone** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:57 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:57 pm

Okay well disregard my 3km nam posts then

by **2004blackwrx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:00 pm

2 models 2 different solutions? Will we have an idea before this thing starts.

by **aiannone** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:02 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:02 pm

WHAT? rgem is 8-10 for NYC area?

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:03 pm

Will post snow map shortly, but eastern side of LI is jackpot oh come on lol, but its much lower than the models have been showing.

by **oldtimer** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:04 pm

Joe Snow Check out Banter when you get a chance tx

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:05 pm

by **Snow88** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:05 pm

8-12 is my final call with more in banding

by **aiannone** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:06 pm

I will say, the RGEM has been the most consistent. And when the NAM waffles, it waffles back to the RGEM soln

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Of course LI has to have the 15-18 lol, 8-12 still nice hit but do you still feel your map of 15+ possible holds serve? Did you update your map yet?

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Guess who I'm quoting.....

"You have to throw the 0z NAM entirely in the trash, especially the 3KM version.
Easy. Look off the MidATL coast. Watch how our lead low NEVER moves on the model & the 2ndary low runs over/through it. AN absolutely impossibility. It's garbage. Amazing garbage, but garbage."

I've been reading his posts a bit on other sites and I have to say that STRONGLY DISLIKE him. Not because I don't think he's a good met, I have essentially no knowledge of him until recently so I cannot say one way or the other. But he is a very condescending and arrogant individual from what I've seen. Very off-putting.

by **2004blackwrx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:10 pm

How often do we really use the rgem. Im def not an expert but i feel we usually rely on nam gfs and euro. 2 models 2 solutions lets see what the next models say.

by Guest Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hi-res nam shows the dry slot better

you also see rain on LI verbatim

Eastern LI maybe. I’m still in dark orange

by Guest Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

That’s better 12-18” island wide

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:12 pm

I am too tired to redraw a new map. But the changes I would make are minimal. Here is my original final call:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Final_Call

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 22 Final_Call

What I would change is...

*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT

That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Guess who I'm quoting.....

"You have to throw the 0z NAM entirely in the trash, especially the 3KM version.
Easy. Look off the MidATL coast. Watch how our lead low NEVER moves on the model & the 2ndary low runs over/through it. AN absolutely impossibility. It's garbage. Amazing garbage, but garbage."

I've been reading his posts a bit on other sites and I have to say that STRONGLY DISLIKE him. Not because I don't think he's a good met, I have essentially no knowledge of him until recently so I cannot say one way or the other. But he is a very condescending and arrogant individual from what I've seen. Very off-putting.

That's his MO. Lol. CRANKY. I am getting tired of the constant "have to prove my point with Max character tweets", tho I've never seen anyone disect every single thing like he does.

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